ski MRG Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I agree with you 100%. But, the long range models have repeatedly been presenting scenarios that provoke an ethusiastic response yielding a hope that borders on expectation. It has been what seems to be a bad track record of late that causes a "here we go again" attitude. I don't doubt we'll get our snow--and hopefully a sh*tload of it. But in the meantime, "here we go again". Eh, the models are created by man, they are a false diety that will lead to your ruination. An unwavering faith in Ullr is all one needs. Ullr is on the move and will be here soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Well our cold storm in early Dec is now looking like a warm rain. What an awful Euro run last nite. Just when you think you've turned the corner These are not the words of a pious man of the cloth. The faithful are counting on you for hope in these trying times. Ullr be with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 These are not the words of a pious man of the cloth. The faithful are counting on you for hope in these trying times. Ullr be with you. He went from Jesus to Judas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 These are not the words of a pious man of the cloth. The faithful are counting on you for hope in these trying times. Ullr be with you. Pretty disheartening turn of events overnight. Hopefully just a blip..but we've now got the Euro ensembles warm for a period where they were staedfast on the cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Pretty disheartening turn of events overnight. Hopefully just a blip..but we've now got the Euro ensembles warm for a period where they were staedfast on the cold They weren't steadfast, but it was a change. Recall yesterday when I mentioned verbatim, they had the low on top of us. That's not a good position. I think we're gonna see big swings going forward. I wouldn't be shocked if 12z brings another change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Pretty disheartening turn of events overnight. Hopefully just a blip..but we've now got the Euro ensembles warm for a period where they were staedfast on the cold Fear not my son. Your faith will be challenged in many ways. This is nothing but the Devil's work. Snow will soon vanguish the infernal heat of hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Just be prepared for solutions that end up warmer than you want, that's all I was saying. Eventually, one of these should work out I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 They weren't steadfast, but it was a change. Recall yesterday when I mentioned verbatim, they had the low on top of us. That's not a good position. I think we're gonna see big swings going forward. I wouldn't be shocked if 12z brings another change. Note that that does not necessarily mean better. it could be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 If Friday doesn't present wintry weather, the freezing mist I have this morning may be my only wintry weather until the second week of December....... 31.5/27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Note that that does not necessarily mean better. it could be worse. Did Ryan touch you or something?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Did Ryan touch you or something?? No--Ryan is a downer when the models are showing good things. I'm reacting to the models showing bad things. Very bad things. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Note that that does not necessarily mean better. it could be worse. Well I don't know what's worse than a Lake's cutter. To be honest, Ensemble members are all over the place for the next two weeks. For the last 5 days, they've shown both cutter and coastal solutions for the same storms. Just anticipate all sorts of results coming up. Nothing is a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Did Ryan touch you or something?? I know, always with the pessimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Let it be known..I am not bridge jumping..just concerned. Moneypit just went over Niagra Falls with no barrell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Let it be known..I am not bridge jumping..just concerned. Moneypit just went over Niagra Falls with no barrell To quote scooter: Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Let it be known..I am not bridge jumping..just concerned. Moneypit just went over Niagra Falls with no barrell Honestly, we're still early. It will come eventually...and who knows...the 12z runs could bring a KU..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Honestly, we're still early. It will come eventually...and who knows...the 12z runs could bring a KU..lol. Exactly. If the models were wrong with the depictipn of the future 2 days ago why take them verbatim. Sneaky lows will get us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Where's the closest bridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 We usually post the GFS ensemble analogs...but they have the Canadian ones too on that site for D8....Canadian ensembles are not bad either. will, fyi, i don't think it's actually linked on their page but if you simply type over 610 with 814, you get the canadian 814 analog as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Just looked at last night's euro.. what a disaster. Where'd the -NAO go? mass weenie suicides Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Just looked at last night's euro.. what a disaster. Where'd the -NAO go? mass weenie suicides The 50-50 low completely obliterates it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 The 50-50 low completely obliterates it. It's still there on the ensembles, but what happens is that the block shifts just a little bit east, and at the same time, troughing in the Rockies is much deeper. That results in ridging on the East Coast. We're seeing just how difficult it is to resolves these patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Well, at least we had a good hurricane season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Well, at least we had a good hurricane season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 If Friday doesn't present wintry weather, the freezing mist I have this morning may be my only wintry weather until the second week of December....... 31.5/27 Yup. And so it goes. 2 weeks ago, we were looking at the hope of Thanksgiving snow . . . last week it was the hopes of first week of December snow . . . Now maybe the 2nd week of december . . . and so on and so forth. Let me off the bus now. I fear the driver may send all of us off the cliff, and it's too early in the season to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2010 Author Share Posted November 22, 2010 It's still there on the ensembles, but what happens is that the block shifts just a little bit east, and at the same time, troughing in the Rockies is much deeper. That results in ridging on the East Coast. We're seeing just how difficult it is to resolves these patterns. Just saw the Euro ensembles, they definitely shifted a little less impressive with the block. They actually look more like they did a couple days ago when they tried to show a brief warmer period around Nov 30-Dec 1st before cooling back off again. It will be interesting to see if they continue that theme at 12z or if we see them go more impressive again. Its been tough getting a whole lot of consistency...even the ensemble mean is wobbling a bit now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Just saw the Euro ensembles, they definitely shifted a little less impressive with the block. They actually look more like they did a couple days ago when they tried to show a brief warmer period around Nov 30-Dec 1st before cooling back off again. It will be interesting to see if they continue that theme at 12z or if we see them go more impressive again. Its been tough getting a whole lot of consistency...even the ensemble mean is wobbling a bit now. That is precisely what I was referring to with my frustration at the recent long-range issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Just saw the Euro ensembles, they definitely shifted a little less impressive with the block. They actually look more like they did a couple days ago when they tried to show a brief warmer period around Nov 30-Dec 1st before cooling back off again. It will be interesting to see if they continue that theme at 12z or if we see them go more impressive again. Its been tough getting a whole lot of consistency...even the ensemble mean is wobbling a bit now. I'd like to see if we can get the early Dec system as modeled to set up a 50-50 low for the follow-up system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2010 Author Share Posted November 22, 2010 That is precisely what I was referring to with my frustration at the recent long-range issues. Well get used to it, because that's the way it is when trying to pin down any pattern more than a week out (even that is not always safe). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 No--Ryan is a downer when the models are showing good things. I'm reacting to the models showing bad things. Very bad things. lol Not true... even Kevin will tell you when the models are good and a storm looks likely I'll get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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