Baroclinic Zone Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Man everyone committing suicide over the long range Euro....nobody celebrating the 348h GFS? Ssh. I worship the 384h GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 In essence what this means is no real pattern change. Warm days a couple cold then warm again. We should have known this would happen given the strong nina. We all fell for this wintry pattern and got sucked in That was all of you. BDL up to 60. Should be at least +8 today Tomorrow looks like +12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 That was all of you. BDL up to 60. Should be at least +8 today Tomorrow looks like +12 Up to 41.0/40 here. Sky's lightening to the SW. Probably just because the sun's setting over there. Visibility still about 300'. Is everyone socked in? I'm surprsied BOX doesn't have any statements out about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 is it fair to say that nzucker's thoughts on this pattern may be more on the mark than previously thought ? we'll know a lot more in about 3 weeks time when we can actually look back at the last week of november and the first 10 days or so of december. as long as those positive anomalies remain in place up around 60/60 i'll take my chances with the pattern being better for this neck of the woods. now, for his area, not so much. and that's kind of been the thinking all along that with the pacific set-up the way it is, it could be tough despite the favorable NAO pattern - especially further SW/W. it could certainly turn out crappy. i don't know that anyone has denied that idea from the get-go. it's impossible to say with any certainty how any one event turns out. we could end up -2 for the next 3 weeks and get no snow at all...or we could end up +1 or +2 and have a couple of systems work in our favor. who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Sorry I was on my BB and it's hard to type fast w/o making mistakes. Phil knows. I am not getting sucked into this false thinking of sustained cold coming Nov 26-Dec10th.. It's not happening in sustained fashion. I'm not jumping off a bridge..but there's too many bad things we're seeing modelwise..I suspect we'll see the Euro ensembles follow suit today with a back and forth pattern. Just becasue i bail doesn't mean I'll be right..hopefully I'm wrong..if you don't want me as Rev anymore fine...but we've seen this happen too many times in past ninas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 That was all of you. BDL up to 60. Should be at least +8 today Tomorrow looks like +12 No you were fully on board too. You were loving the period for cold and snow chances.. Absolutley were Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Sorry I was on my BB and it's hard to type fast w/o making mistakes. Phil knows. I am not getting sucked into this false thinking of sustained cold coming Nov 26-Dec10th.. It's not happening in sustained fashion. I'm not jumping off a bridge..but there's too many bad things we're seeing modelwise..I suspect we'll see the Euro ensembles follow suit today with a back and forth pattern. Just becasue i bail doesn't mean I'll be right..hopefully I'm wrong..if you don't want me as Rev anymore fine...but we've seen this happen too many times in past ninas. Caution FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Caution FTW. You are def changing your tone too. I can tell you are worried and now think maybe this period isn't promising like you once did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 look the cold weather pattern is present on the models, they are just up to their normal changing ways the last few cycles. I believe that the models will swing back and forth again between now and Dec 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Man everyone committing suicide over the long range Euro....nobody celebrating the 348h GFS? 384 gfs is epic every run........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 You are def changing your tone too. I can tell you are worried and now think maybe this period isn't promising like you once did I kept saying over a week ago that we are not guaranteed snow. I admit, that next week surprised me a bit, but there have been and continues to be hints that storms may not be as cold as we want. That doesn't mean we can't get a doozy. Right now, I think everything is on the table, and we could have our share of crappy outcomes in the next 2 weeks, but that doesn't mean much this far out, and certainly not a given. As quick as things have turned warmer, we could all of the sudden have a monster on our hands 5 days out. The pattern is that volatile. If people would just listen to us lay all the details down and not get their hopes up on a d13 prog, it will lessen any heartbreak. Just remember what time of year it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 No you were fully on board too. You were loving the period for cold and snow chances.. Absolutley were Yeah, I said we'd see a period of cold and snow chances. That's still there. I think the -NAO monster block with big cold lasting for 2 weeks was always going to be a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I kept saying over a week ago that we are not guaranteed snow. I admit, that next week surprised me a bit, but there have been and continues to be hints that storms may not be as cold as we want. That doesn't mean we can't get a doozy. Right now, I think everything is on the table, and we could have our share of crappy outcomes in the next 2 weeks, but that doesn't mean much this far out, and certainly not a given. As quick as things have turned warmer, we could all of the sudden have a monster on our hands 5 days out. The pattern is that volatile. If people would just listen to us lay all the details down and not get their hopes up on a d13 prog, it will lessen any heartbreak. Just remember what time of year it is. The problem with that is that the Dec period is supoposed to be our coldest and snowiest time this winter..which is why we needed to maximize the potential..not see 2 cold days then a cutter and torch then cold then warm .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I kept saying over a week ago that we are not guaranteed snow. I admit, that next week surprised me a bit, but there have been and continues to be hints that storms may not be as cold as we want. That doesn't mean we can't get a doozy. Right now, I think everything is on the table, and we could have our share of crappy outcomes in the next 2 weeks, but that doesn't mean much this far out, and certainly not a given. As quick as things have turned warmer, we could all of the sudden have a monster on our hands 5 days out. The pattern is that volatile. If people would just listen to us lay all the details down and not get their hopes up on a d13 prog, it will lessen any heartbreak. Just remember what time of year it is. i think it still looks... in general... like a below normal pattern. Nothing's really changed. Kevin I posted yesterday that even with a good pattern nothing is guaranteed. 2 weeks of shi*ty outcomes during a great pattern is going to be heartbreaking when we get to some truly awful patterns in jan and feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 All I am saying is don't count on sustained cold over the next 2-3 weeks if you were hoping for that..because it isn't gonna happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 The problem with that is that the Dec period is supoposed to be our coldest and snowiest time this winter..which is why we needed to maximize the potential..not see 2 cold days then a cutter and torch then cold then warm .. Who says it has to be right? Who says we can't have a 2-3 week stretch here and there of snowy weather? We just don't know for sure. This is somewhat unchartered territory right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 The one time I actually post without any sense of weenieism and people jump all over me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 i think it still looks... in general... like a below normal pattern. Nothing's really changed. Kevin I posted yesterday that even with a good pattern nothing is guaranteed. 2 weeks of shi*ty outcomes during a great pattern is going to be heartbreaking when we get to some truly awful patterns in jan and feb. Yeah I agree. We can't always have a classic pattern, but with that block...it gives us a shot. It's not a bad pattern, but we just don't know the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 The one time I actually post without any sense of weenieism and people jump all over me lol lol...well now your calling for 60s and 70, suntans and beach umbrellas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 The EC ensembles do place the block farther south as compared to 00z. As a result, it does result in a better pattern for miller-b's and this is shown on the mass fields. The other thing to watch is the GOA. There have been fluctuations back and forth with the troughing there as well. Overall still an interesting pattern, if you have your emotions in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 The problem with that is that the Dec period is supoposed to be our coldest and snowiest time this winter..which is why we needed to maximize the potential..not see 2 cold days then a cutter and torch then cold then warm .. I never though that it would be....coldest is debatable, but I do not think that it will be the snowiest at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 is it fair to say that nzucker's thoughts on this pattern may be more on the mark than previously thought ? Yeah, its going to pain some people but Zucker's locked and loaded on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 The one time I actually post without any sense of weenieism and people jump all over me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Up to 41.0/40 here. Sky's lightening to the SW. Probably just because the sun's setting over there. Visibility still about 300'. Is everyone socked in? I'm surprsied BOX doesn't have any statements out about it. Want to talk about dense fog... I just got back from a couple hours up at the ski resort base (getting prepared for Wednesday's opening!) and wow was there some dense fog from time to time there at 1,600ft. 1-2" of snow still on the ground from the other day coupled with a heavy batch of 36F rain and you get pea soup fog... nothing like rain watering down a coating of snow to get you in the mood for winter...ahh great November day, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Yeah, its going to pain some people but Zucker's locked and loaded on this one. perhaps but with all the swings back and forth .....lets hold out for tonite's euro and preferrably tommorrows to confirm anything. highly changeable on models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Yeah, its going to pain some people but Zucker's locked and loaded on this one. Why, because the latest pendulum swing of deterministic soloutions looks a little less favorable.....can we wait for another 10-14 days before declaring folks right and wrong; christ. Now if the day 10 EURO depicts a HECS tonight, he's wrong again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 perhaps but with all the swings back and forth .....lets hold out for tonite's euro and preferrably tommorrows to confirm anything. highly changeable on models We agree for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 perhaps but with all the swings back and forth .....lets hold out for tonite's euro and preferrably tommorrows to confirm anything. highly changeable on models Oh I know... and while its too early to tell for sure (Phil is right, this is all speculation and it won't be till Dec 10 when we can really look back and analyze what happened), but there has certainly been a shifting in the past 48 hours of model runs that makes sustained cold unlikely. Sure some runs are still cold, but a few days ago it was pretty much every model run that had a very cold late Nov/early Dec signal. Now its like 25-50% of model runs showing it. So it still could happen but there are signs as of late that are a little disturbing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 perhaps but with all the swings back and forth .....lets hold out for tonite's euro and preferrably tommorrows to confirm anything. highly changeable on models I also have a hard time using a 10 day prog on a deterministic model to forecast a pattern. Sure, it could be right, but 9.5 out of 10 times, ensembles will have a better outlook on the general features, past d7. I do find that if op models start showing wild swings after locking in to an overall stable pattern for days...it could be a sign that the pattern is changing. This isn't a reference to our current situation, just throwing it out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Why, because the latest pendulum swing of deterministic soloutions looks a little less favorable.....can we wait for another 10-14 days before declaring folks right and wrong; christ. Now if the day 10 EURO dispects a HECS tonight, he's wrong again. You are totally right... we don't know (see my last post above)... but there has been a movement in the models towards a warmer/less snowy period coming up. I'm not completely jumping ship but what was showing up on almost 100% of model runs (EURO/GFS) is now showing up on 25-50% of them. So sure, it can still happen but I don't like seeing the probabilities decrease as we get closer to the time in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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