Pattern Changing: Early December threats?

[CoastalWx]

Yeah, really worth the 49F high I had. I saw that coming from a mile away too...the monster ULL going underneath SNE that would normally be a monster snowstorm, even for Ray's area, but everyone was hoping we'd get another 5F on the boundary layer 5 days before it.

But anyway, I digress, literally water under the bridge at this point.

We usually post the GFS ensemble analogs...but they have the Canadian ones too on that site for D8....Canadian ensembles are not bad either.

I think everyone in eastern SNE would take the early Dec 1981 analog.

With violence.

I'm out. Hopefully the 00z runs continue the fun.

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

Can anyone tell me if an Aleutian Ridge over the central Aleutian Islands is a favorable pattern for EC snowstorms?

[H2Otown_WX]

Yeah, really worth the 49F high I had. I saw that coming from a mile away too...the monster ULL going underneath SNE that would normally be a monster snowstorm, even for Ray's area, but everyone was hoping we'd get another 5F on the boundary layer 5 days before it.

But anyway, I digress, literally water under the bridge at this point.

We usually post the GFS ensemble analogs...but they have the Canadian ones too on that site for D8....Canadian ensembles are not bad either.

I think everyone in eastern SNE would take the early Dec 1981 analog.

What happened during that storm?

[40/70 Benchmark]

What happened during that storm?

Heavy heavies from ORH points east; heavy screwgies points west.

[ORH_wxman]

Can anyone tell me if an Aleutian Ridge over the central Aleutian Islands is a favorable pattern for EC snowstorms?

Generally it isn't. It produces a downstream trough in the PNA region of western Canada and PAC NW...which is fairly hostile to KU events. Most of the storms that occur on the east coast in that setup tend to be redevelopers or retrograding storms if you have an NAO block.

However, its not impossible and there are always exceptions, it just depends on the exact orientation of the Aleution ridge and NW trough...especially when there is a severe -NAO block.

[nzucker]

Generally it isn't. It produces a downstream trough in the PNA region of western Canada and PAC NW...which is fairly hostile to KU events. Most of the storms that occur on the east coast in that setup tend to be redevelopers or retrograding storms if you have an NAO block.

However, its not impossible and there are always exceptions, it just depends on the exact orientation of the Aleution ridge and NW trough...especially when there is a severe -NAO block.

We'd want that block further east towards Yukon or Fairbanks, AK right?

Didn't March 1960, one of the deepest and coldest storms have that classic -EPO configuration?

[H2Otown_WX]

Heavy heavies from ORH points east; heavy screwgies points west.

Sounds like my kind of storm...

[dryslot]

I need to stop talking about last year....it makes me wanna do bad, bad things.

Makes me want to puke in my mouth.......

[ORH_wxman]

We'd want that block further east towards Yukon or Fairbanks, AK right?

Didn't March 1960, one of the deepest and coldest storms have that classic -EPO configuration?

Yeah definitely Yukon and B.C. You want a nice +PNA usually. I don't recall off the top of my head from maps what the PAC side looked like in Mar 1960 though its getting late in the season by that point and the wavelengths are beginning to shorten so March events can have some different "rules" for the longer wave teleconnections out on the PAC side.

[nzucker]

I hear the ECM lost the mega-block?

[ORH_wxman]

Man that is one ugly OP Euro run post-144, lol. NAO block gets pushed out by the SE Canadian vortex. Not really sure why it decides to do that this run, but its the opposite of the 12z run and the ensembles.

[nzucker]

Man that is one ugly OP Euro run post-144, lol. NAO block gets pushed out by the SE Canadian vortex. Not really sure why it decides to do that this run, but its the opposite of the 12z run and the ensembles.

Yeah the GFS had that sort of solution too at 0z. The 50/50 low actually destroys its own blocking LOL

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah the GFS had that sort of solution too at 0z. The 50/50 low actually destroys its own blocking LOL

I'm not sure how that even works...but we'll see what the ensembles say later...they haven't budged much except a couple runs ago they hinted at a possible moderation around Nov 30-Dec 1....but then that went away the past couple runs.

[nzucker]

I'm not sure how that even works...but we'll see what the ensembles say later...they haven't budged much except a couple runs ago they hinted at a possible moderation around Nov 30-Dec 1....but then that went away the past couple runs.

Lot of wacky solutions showing up lately on the models...Never seen a 50/50 low destroy the Greenland block that helped spawn it, but that's what the ECM and GFS show tonight folks.

[H2Otown_WX]

How do the ensembles look? Also, Will, is that something you've seen before? A 50/50 low scouring out a huge NAO block or is that a highly anomalous solution?

[weatherwiz]

How do the ensembles look? Also, Will, is that something you've seen before? A 50/50 low scouring out a huge NAO block or is that a highly anomalous solution?

Ensembles probably won't be in range for another 20-30 minutes or so

[weathafella]

Euro ens mean looks more favorable but one can surmise there is alot of spread given the mean vs the op. Heading to Logan in 15 minutes. Time to go to summer for 5 days.

[CoastalWx]

The ensembles look warm for that 12/1 timeframe as well. Like I was saying yesterday, we should still be ready for warmer solutions as a possibility. Just too much volatility right now.

[CoastalWx]

This thread should be fun in about 2 hrs.

[cpickett79]

The ensembles look warm for that 12/1 timeframe as well. Like I was saying yesterday, we should still be ready for warmer solutions as a possibility. Just too much volatility right now.

A negative NAO does not mean it's gonna snow....repeat after me. sounds like it's gonna be difficult to build snow pack this year? volatity associated with nina

[ski MRG]

This thread should be fun in about 2 hrs.

Nervous Nellies. The Blitz will commence very soon now. Models be damned.

[moneypitmike]

Nervous Nellies. The Blitz will commence very soon now. Models be damned.

I think the reluctance to get excited by many....correct that, I can only speak for myself.

My reluctance to get excited by any of the long range is due to what seems like they have been continually wrong. All of them. They have shown massive swings (today's Euro, e.g.), have delayed and muted verious anomalous set ups. Maybe it's no different than in the past. But it seems that once we got through with the heat of the summer there have been many more "swings and misses" than balls being put into play.

For now, I'll hope we can get wintry things to hold on for a bit in the late week event.

31.4/26

[MaineJayhawk]

This thread should be fun in about 2 hrs.

What happens in 2 hours?

[MaineJayhawk]

Oh, are you talking about the models that show the little blue line for the 12/1 storm going kinda to the north of most of us and the following storm that has all the green and blue stuff in Virginia and North Carolina and thinking that an intervention might be needed?

[ski MRG]

I think the reluctance to get excited by many....correct that, I can only speak for myself.

My reluctance to get excited by any of the long range is due to what seems like they have been continually wrong. All of them. They have shown massive swings (today's Euro, e.g.), have delayed and muted verious anomalous set ups. Maybe it's no different than in the past. But it seems that once we got through with the heat of the summer there have been many more "swings and misses" than balls being put into play.

For now, I'll hope we can get wintry things to hold on for a bit in the late week event.

31.4/26

As a decades long resident of the East Slope I feel worrying about whether/when it will snow is like worrying about the sun coming up. Is there any where else in SNE that you'd rather live being a snow lover. Not I. Even the truly spectacularly bad years still feture a good amount of snow. We are on the cusp of Winter now. The models only give us a glimpse of what is possible. They do not afford us clairvoyance. I'll rely on the climo of our region to provide and provide it will. The old saying "A watched pot never boils." comes to mind. I've been so busy lately that I am only able keep loose tabs on the model progs. What I do know is that we've stepped down in temps through the Autumn about as one would expect. We've recieved measurable snow in both Oct and November (the plows were out the last time). Now we're still a week+ away from Dec 1st and the threat of significant snows looms larger. We will recieve snow and likely within the next 10-14 days. As climo would suggest. Let the models oscillate as they will. In the end Ullr pays no heed. Soon he will cast his unifying blanket over God's country, as sure as the sun will rise. FEAR NOT.

[CoastalWx]

Oh, are you talking about the models that show the little blue line for the 12/1 storm going kinda to the north of most of us and the following storm that has all the green and blue stuff in Virginia and North Carolina and thinking that an intervention might be needed?

Past history dictates this.

[MaineJayhawk]

As a decades long resident of the East Slope I feel worrying about whether/when it will snow is like worrying about the sun coming up. Is there any where else in SNE that you'd rather live being a snow lover. Not I. Even the truly spectacularly bad years still feture a good amount of snow. We are on the cusp of Winter now. The models only give us a glimpse of what is possible. They do not afford us clairvoyance. I'll rely on the climo of our region to provide and provide it will. The old saying "A watched pot never boils." comes to mind. I've been so busy lately that I am only able keep loose tabs on the model progs. What I do know is that we've stepped down in temps through the Autumn about as one would expect. We've recieved measurable snow in both Oct and November (the plows were out the last time). Now we're still a week+ away from Dec 1st and the threat of significant snows looms larger. We will recieve snow and likely within the next 10-14 days. As climo would suggest. Let the models oscillate as they will. In the end Ullr pays no heed. Soon he will cast his unifying blanket over God's country, as sure as the sun will rise. FEAR NOT.

Looks like Cardinal Pete took the reins for the sermon today.

I'm not concerned what models say for December when the current day is 11/22. The rollercoaster is part of the attraction.

[Damage In Tolland]

Well our cold storm in early Dec is now looking like a warm rain. What an awful Euro run last nite. Just when you think you've turned the corner

[moneypitmike]

As a decades long resident of the East Slope I feel worrying about whether/when it will snow is like worrying about the sun coming up. Is there any where else in SNE that you'd rather live being a snow lover. Not I. Even the truly spectacularly bad years still feture a good amount of snow. We are on the cusp of Winter now. The models only give us a glimpse of what is possible. They do not afford us clairvoyance. I'll rely on the climo of our region to provide and provide it will. The old saying "A watched pot never boils." comes to mind. I've been so busy lately that I am only able keep loose tabs on the model progs. What I do know is that we've stepped down in temps through the Autumn about as one would expect. We've recieved measurable snow in both Oct and November (the plows were out the last time). Now we're still a week+ away from Dec 1st and the threat of significant snows looms larger. We will recieve snow and likely within the next 10-14 days. As climo would suggest. Let the models oscillate as they will. In the end Ullr pays no heed. Soon he will cast his unifying blanket over God's country, as sure as the sun will rise. FEAR NOT.

I agree with you 100%. But, the long range models have repeatedly been presenting scenarios that provoke an ethusiastic response yielding a hope that borders on expectation. It has been what seems to be a bad track record of late that causes a "here we go again" attitude.

I don't doubt we'll get our snow--and hopefully a sh*tload of it. But in the meantime, "here we go again".

[CoastalWx]

Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!