Typhoon Tip Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Any Euro news, amigos? Yeah ... the memo reads: "Smack your self in the face 10 times for each 24 hour output interval, or go look at the 12z run - it makes no difference to the front office how you take your pain" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I think some of those colder solutions can return – although admittedly, it’s like watching a Red Sox game when they can’t buy a hit; you just don’t “feel” like it will ever happen. kinda like watchin big papi ehhh "hit" in april. models wiffin at crap (pattern) in the dirt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I'm gonna flip the scripts(ture) and say Dec 2nd or 3rd has some snow potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I'm gonna flip the scripts(ture) and say Dec 2nd or 3rd has some snow potential Scholarship fund cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I'm gonna flip the scripts(ture) and say Dec 2nd or 3rd has some snow potential for the Western Conus violently agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 After the lakes cutter around Nov 30-Dec 1, I think we'll be in an okay pattern for snow. It doesn't look amazing, but it has some potential. Esp if the EC ensembles from last night are correct with their "newer" idea of trying to rebuild the -NAO a bit to the west as a newer dump of arctic cold comes into Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 After the lakes cutter around Nov 30-Dec 1, I think we'll be in an okay pattern for snow. It doesn't look amazing, but it has some potential. Esp if the EC ensembles from last night are correct with their "newer" idea of trying to rebuild the -NAO a bit to the west as a newer dump of arctic cold comes into Canada. will what time do the 12z ensembles come out ...would be nice for consistency.....like 5'ish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 will what time do the 12z ensembles come out ...would be nice for consistency.....like 5'ish? They'll be out in about 45 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I'm gonna flip the scripts(ture) and say Dec 2nd or 3rd has some snow potential I'm going to say that one is a warm sector storm for us but after that we start to see changes within the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 After the lakes cutter around Nov 30-Dec 1, I think we'll be in an okay pattern for snow. It doesn't look amazing, but it has some potential. Esp if the EC ensembles from last night are correct with their "newer" idea of trying to rebuild the -NAO a bit to the west as a newer dump of arctic cold comes into Canada. You can see the seasonal change that is occurring very well. Climo getting better every day, I like our chances. Perhaps because I remember so well the torch looks to the pattern on previous Tday weeks. The entire over hyped arctic invasion 89 style was silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 You can see the seasonal change that is occurring very well. Climo getting better every day, I like our chances. Perhaps because I remember so well the torch looks to the pattern on previous Tday weeks. The entire over hyped arctic invasion 89 style was silly. Congratulations. We are moving towards winter in late November. News flash! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Congratulations. We are moving towards winter in late November. News flash! LOL there will be no winter South of a line from Hobo Ferry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 You can see the seasonal change that is occurring very well. Climo getting better every day, I like our chances. Perhaps because I remember so well the torch looks to the pattern on previous Tday weeks. The entire over hyped arctic invasion 89 style was silly. I'd venture to say that I still would hold the torch card for 12/5 as well, but things will come around eventually, if we can hold this pattern. It's just way too early right now to figure anything out, and climo also says it's very early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I'd venture to say that I still would hold the torch card for 12/5 as well, but things will come around eventually, if we can hold this pattern. It's just way too early right now to figure anything out, and climo also says it's very early. Exactly my point but socks missed it. Looking forward to the late night banter while we are ripping snow and NYC area within 15 miles is drizzle and dry slotted. Climo in La Nina says so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Exactly my point but socks missed it. Looking forward to the late night banter while we are ripping snow and NYC area within 15 miles is drizzle and dry slotted. Climo in La Nina says so. I agree that this -NAO/-PNA pattern would become more favorable for you guys later in the winter due to climo. I think both you and I are going to finish the winter below average in snowfall. I'll probably have a greater deficit but you still won't be thrilled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I agree that this -NAO/-PNA pattern would become more favorable for you guys later in the winter due to climo. I think both you and I are going to finish the winter below average in snowfall. I'll probably have a greater deficit but you still won't be thrilled. how much more will skier get than you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Well with an unfavorable PAC, the Atlantic needs to cooperate and the models don't begin to show this until after the DEC 5 period. The Atlantic shows an east based -NAO block which is not good for us here in SNE. Plus La NIna winters are never the greatest, but there have been big snowstorms in La Nina winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I agree that this -NAO/-PNA pattern would become more favorable for you guys later in the winter due to climo. I think both you and I are going to finish the winter below average in snowfall. I'll probably have a greater deficit but you still won't be thrilled. I was thrilled with my two inch storm , I will be thrilled with the next one and the one after that. My expectations are very low. One day at a time. Last Dec 19 th was heaven to me and the very cold windy days that followed. That made my winter special, you see that's all I ask for, one great storm. I can easily head north anytime I want to get to areas that have huge climo norms. Having said that you have presented some good ideas, keep digging though because you might have missed one thing. You might be thrilled by April, check back with me then, until then good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 Euro ensembles out to 216h....liking the look. Continues their theme of a -EPO/-PNA/-NAO look beginning to take shape around Dec 2-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Euro ensembles out to 216h....liking the look. Continues their theme of a -EPO/-PNA/-NAO look beginning to take shape around Dec 2-3. Height came up in the GOA from 00z. Lets hope it stays with the theme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 Height came up in the GOA from 00z. Lets hope it stays with the theme. Yeah its hitting the EPO a little harder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 The PNA might be more neutral by D11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 The PNA might be more neutral by D11. Thanks for the updates appreciate it much., ooh brownie points. Seriously I think Scooter mentioned this before. You have got to like the fact all of the NH cools around the first week of Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 The PNA might be more neutral by D11. Yeah it looks like heights are higher in the GOA but a little lower over the west. Not sure if it means that much, but I'd rather see nw flow paralleling the Pacific coast, than a firehouse aiming at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Thumbs up! Glad to hear the positive news, if you will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 Yeah it looks like heights are higher in the GOA but a little lower over the west. Not sure if it means that much, but I'd rather see nw flow paralleling the Pacific coast, than a firehouse aiming at the coast. One thing that encourages me is that the ensembles just sort of shifted into this pattern all of the sudden last night and we are seeing it again today in a slightly stronger form. The switch was inside D10 too, so its not like its horrifically far out. That gives me confidence that they may have caught onto something. Sort of similar to a couple days when they all of the sudden started showing the warmer period at D8-9 (at the time). Now we see this current shift happening at the D9 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Things looking a bit better long term it sounds like. Still caution is violently urged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I certainly don't mind having DT on our side while he's in one of his hot streaks. He's en fuego right now (medium-long range) like he was in the first half of 2008-2009 winter. I told him how this lack of NAO block was frustrating me and he said something like "patience, you guys will get it up there...not like here". Sure was frustrating to see the models evaporate the retrograding Greenland block idea so fast in the last 2 days, but what can you do. Where is DT posting these day by the way? Still over at stormvista or whatever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 One thing that encourages me is that the ensembles just sort of shifted into this pattern all of the sudden last night and we are seeing it again today in a slightly stronger form. The switch was inside D10 too, so its not like its horrifically far out. That gives me confidence that they may have caught onto something. Sort of similar to a couple days when they all of the sudden started showing the warmer period at D8-9 (at the time). Now we see this current shift happening at the D9 period. I also like how the Davis Strait block shows no signs of leaving. That's encouraging to see as we go out in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I also like how the Davis Strait block shows no signs of leaving. That's encouraging to see as we go out in time. Jerrys favorite, Step down pattern it seems as described. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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