Pattern Changing: Early December threats?

[ORH_wxman]

There is a strong GFS perpetual long term blizzard signal

From November to April.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I just think there's a widespread assumption on this board that the La Niñas of old were all good winters and that we'll see that type of La Niña this season due to the PDO/NAO phase. While some of this may be true, and most everyone believes this winter will be colder than torch Niñas like 99-00, there were plenty of stinker La Niñas back then too. 49-50, 50-51, 54-55, and 73-74 were all bad La Niña winters for SNE during that time period and decadal cycle. Why are people always focusing on 70-71 rather than 49-50? A lot of the old Niñas sucked folks.

Dude quit it...we are having a discussion about meteorology here, no one is trying to be arrogant and everyone is sharing what they know/believe. In fact, it looks like my assertions about the coming pattern were more correct than many of the mets here, at least with what is being shown right now.

This from the guy who says it wasn't a hot summer when it was the 2nd warmest on record. What a joke this is.

Its like 10 days out....you come off as an know-it-all punk from time to time.

[skierinvermont]

In fact, it looks like my assertions about the coming pattern were more correct than many of the mets here, at least with what is being shown right now.

The only reason you're looking good is because today's model runs basically evaporated what was previously a massive sustained west based -NAO that was on the ensembles runs for the last several days.

Mets have given you plenty of examples of snowstorms occurring in SNE with a -NAO without a +PNA and/or -EPO. There is plenty of cold air in Canada and if we get the -NAO that cold will be locked into New England and we will have above normal chances of snow. I doubt anybody ever said it was a lock (some people might have been overconfident I haven't been following this thread that closely) and I doubt anybody said the pattern was ideal. The problem is you always speak with too much confidence and that's why people are jumping all over you. Just 10 days ago you were saying how confident you were it would be cold this week.. I will enjoy my 60s tomorrow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I made a thread back on eastern that had snowfall averages during different strengths of Ninas. It showed clearly that there was a risk we could see a poor winter. I don't think most people are blindly unaware to this fact...but if you look at the -NAO/-PNA type La Ninas, then they were very favorable so I think some see the lingering -NAO tendency as a good sign.

'49-'50 actually wasn't that bad in the interior. Only a shade below average.

But the '55-'56 period through '75-'76 definitely featured mostly good Nina winters for SNE, that is likely what Scott was referring to. The late '40s and early '50s was prior to the NAO going into its 20 year tank.

Right, the majority of them were good in that era; no one ever implied that ALL of them were.

[nzucker]

Its like 10 days out....you come off as an know-it-all punk from time to time.

I'm just defending myself against the tirade of accusations and nasty comments directed at me. I didn't mean to come off as arrogant, but I don't deserve to be ridiculed for arguing that the pattern isn't great for snow. I always support my point of view with facts, which should be respected here. I'm not claiming a "victory" of any sorts...the event is still far out and it's not about winning/losing. But I think overall the disappointment with the forecasted pattern is showing, and I began saying almost two weeks ago that I was skeptical of a snowy/cold regime with the Niña going crazy and a horrid Pacific, as well as climo. People have been downright mean to me for suggesting exactly what the models are now showing.

[ROOSTA]

From November to April.

And always D10 and beyond. There's the first beast of the season on long-long range GFS.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The only reason you're looking good is because today's model runs basically evaporated what was previously a massive sustained west based -NAO that was on the ensembles runs for the last several days.

Mets have given you plenty of examples of snowstorms occurring in SNE with a -NAO without a +PNA and/or -EPO. There is plenty of cold air in Canada and if we get the -NAO that cold will be locked into New England and we will have above normal chances of snow. I doubt anybody ever said it was a lock (some people might have been overconfident I haven't been following this thread that closely) and I doubt anybody said the pattern was ideal. The problem is you always speak with too much confidence and that's why people are jumping all over you. Just 10 days ago you were saying how confident you were it would be cold this week.. I will enjoy my 60s tomorrow.

Very well said.

[ORH_wxman]

Its like 10 days out....you come off as an know-it-all punk from time to time.

He can come off over confident, but I give it a pass because I was like that too when I was that age. I don't agree with all his reasoning but his general theme has some validity...I'm mostly picking on his reasoning WRT New England snowfall climo. You learn though very quickly when it comes to this field that the minute you start thinking you know it better than everyone else, you get smoked into a tailspin of humble pie.

You'll get your hot streaks and cold streaks, the trick is to try and make your hot streaks more impressive than the cold streaks...much like hitting in baseball. I've learned since about 2005 and 2006 that you have to acknowledge and admit your busts if you ever want to get better and learn from them. It might not bear fruit the very next forecast, but you can bet it will down the line.

As for this type of talk, this is also LR forecasting which can be quite ambiguous and some of the details fuzzy....so its easy to spin a forecast into a success if you want it to be. But deep down you want to know if it ended up like you thought it would. If we get an average NAO decently negative and a snow event in the first 10 days of Dec, I would consider it a success for me...but if the NAO is rotting near neutral and we are too warm for snow events, then I would consider it that I busted on my original ideas.

[nzucker]

The only reason you're looking good is because today's model runs basically evaporated what was previously a massive sustained west based -NAO that was on the ensembles runs for the last several days.

Mets have given you plenty of examples of snowstorms occurring in SNE with a -NAO without a +PNA and/or -EPO. There is plenty of cold air in Canada and if we get the -NAO that cold will be locked into New England and we will have above normal chances of snow. I doubt anybody ever said it was a lock (some people might have been overconfident I haven't been following this thread that closely) and I doubt anybody said the pattern was ideal. The problem is you always speak with too much confidence and that's why people are jumping all over you. Just 10 days ago you were saying how confident you were it would be cold this week.. I will enjoy my 60s tomorrow.

It makes sense that we're not going to have a sustained -NAO/cold pattern in a strong La Niña. The PV is going to try to wash everything out, and even with the NAO block it would be hard to get a snowstorm for New England since the Pacific pattern is ensuring that energy enters the country too far north and amplifies in the west, which pushes ridging ahead of it. This is also very early in the winter which means marginal events are not something to bet on. I have been seeing the signal for a -PNA on the models for days, and no one wanted to believe it. It wasn't just today, Andrew, I sensed 3-4 days ago that the GFS was trending more towards a stronger -PNA with a bombing GoA low. Even though the model still showed the storm being in play for SNE, a prudent forecaster could deduce that some unfavorable changes were coming with the Pacific regime.

And where is this cold air in Canada? Looks pretty warm in the places we expect to provide cold air with a -NAO, like Quebec and Ontario. No signs of a damming high pressure...

Come on Facebook for a sec?

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm just defending myself against the tirade of accusations and nasty comments directed at me. I didn't mean to come off as arrogant, but I don't deserve to be ridiculed for arguing that the pattern isn't great for snow. I always support my point of view with facts, which should be respected here. I'm not claiming a "victory" of any sorts...the event is still far out and it's not about winning/losing. But I think overall the disappointment with the forecasted pattern is showing, and I began saying almost two weeks ago that I was skeptical of a snowy/cold regime with the Niña going crazy and a horrid Pacific, as well as climo. People have been downright mean to me for suggesting exactly what the models are now showing.

I agree that those who are dissapointed probably had expectations set too high, but the majority of us feel the same way that we have all along; looks to be a highly volatile pattern that should be decent enough allow some chances over the long haul.

I understand what you are saying....I take crap for being "negative" too sometimes, especially because I occasionally start speaking in absolutes to piss people off. My advise is to just go with it and retaliate with some mental manipulation of your own. lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

He can come off over confident, but I give it a pass because I was like that too when I was that age. I don't agree with all his reasoning but his general theme has some validity...I'm mostly picking on his reasoning WRT New England snowfall climo. You learn though very quickly when it comes to this field that the minute you start thinking you know it better than everyone else, you get smoked into a tailspin of humble pie.

You'll get your hot streaks and cold streaks, the trick is to try and make your hot streaks more impressive than the cold streaks...much like hitting in baseball. I've learned since about 2005 and 2006 that you have to acknowledge and admit your busts if you ever want to get better and learn from them. It might not bear fruit the very next forecast, but you can bet it will down the line.

As for this type of talk, this is also LR forecasting which can be quite ambiguous and some of the details fuzzy....so its easy to spin a forecast into a success if you want it to be. But deep down you want to know if it ended up like you thought it would. If we get an average NAO decently negative and a snow event in the first 10 days of Dec, I would consider it a success for me...but if the NAO is rotting near neutral and we are too warm for snow events, then I would consider it that I busted on my original ideas.

I didn't know you when you were his age, but I actually had envisioned him as essentially you circa 2002-2003, which is a compliment of the highest order; his exceptional intelligence is coupled with a great affinity for meteorology and that is what deams him a grade-"A" prospect in my book....however one trait that is inherent to "prospects" is that they are still relatively unrefined within their crafts and I think in this instance we are seeing that manifest itself as a bit of a surplus of confidence.

Intelligence outrunning experience; just my 2 cents....

[skierinvermont]

It makes sense that we're not going to have a sustained -NAO/cold pattern in a strong La Niña. The PV is going to try to wash everything out, and even with the NAO block it would be hard to get a snowstorm for New England since the Pacific pattern is ensuring that energy enters the country too far north and amplifies in the west, which pushes ridging ahead of it. This is also very early in the winter which means marginal events are not something to bet on. I have been seeing the signal for a -PNA on the models for days, and no one wanted to believe it. It wasn't just today, Andrew, I sensed 3-4 days ago that the GFS was trending more towards a stronger -PNA with a bombing GoA low. Even though the model still showed the storm being in play for SNE, a prudent forecaster could deduce that some unfavorable changes were coming with the Pacific regime.

And where is this cold air in Canada? Looks pretty warm in the places we expect to provide cold air with a -NAO, like Quebec and Ontario. No signs of a damming high pressure...

Come on Facebook for a sec?

To the bolded: Then why did you write this in your winter forecast:

"In the past two years, the NAO has spent approximately three months in positive territory; this pattern will continue throughout the winter"

"I tried to stick with analogs that had more of a -NAO/-AO look."

I doubt anybody "missed" the very obvious -PNA tendency on the models. But a -PNA with a -NAO can still be pretty good in New England.. and the models showed several possible threats in the LR due to the favorable pattern created by the -NAO.

I haven't seen any posts by you arguing that the -NAO would fail to materialize. In fact just yesterday you told me on the phone the -NAO was basically a lock because it was now into the D7-10 range. Well it just went poof basically (slight exaggeration). You have basically been arguing that the -NAO isn't enough and would be trumped by the Pacific... which I think some people have given pretty good evidence to the contrary of. I haven't really heard you giving a physical argument for why the -NAO would not actually happen. If the -NAO fails to happen and it is warm and wet then it seems to be a case of being right for the wrong reasons.

[nzucker]

I didn't know you when you were his age, but I actually had envisioned him as essentially you circa 2002-2003, which is a compliment of the highest order; his exceptional intelligence is coupled with a great affinity for meteorology and that is what deams him a grade-"A" prospect in my book....however one trait that is inherent to "prospects" is that they are still relatively unrefined within their crafts and I think in this instance we are seeing that manifest itself as a bit of a surplus of confidence.

Intelligence outrunning experience; just my 2 cents....

Thanks for the compliments. I'll never be a Will though, as his hard science and math backgrounds exceed mine greatly. He's a real meteorologist, I'm just a weenie who studies the pattern seriously. I majored in French and Spanish in college and will never touch his level of competency. Sometimes I get a bit overconfident although I think there needs to be someone to offer some counterpoints and to be realistic about snow threats in a thread of weenies.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Thanks for the compliments. I'll never be a Will though, as his hard science and math backgrounds exceed mine greatly. He's a real meteorologist, I'm just a weenie who studies the pattern seriously. I majored in French and Spanish in college and will never touch his level of competency. Sometimes I get a bit overconfident although I think there needs to be someone to offer some counterpoints and to be realistic about snow threats in a thread of weenies.

I couldn't believe that when you told me and I still find it quite difficult to assimilate; I've always viewed you as an aspiring met.

Confidence is the foundation of success in all aspects of life and that can never be overstated, but the slightest of nuances with regard to how you conduct\articulate yourself can be the difference between others construing the confidence that you are demonstrating as arrogance or not, especially when you are relatively unexperienced in the subject matter at hand....fine line.

[ORH_wxman]

To the bolded: Then why did you write this in your winter forecast:

"In the past two years, the NAO has spent approximately three months in positive territory; this pattern will continue throughout the winter"

"I tried to stick with analogs that had more of a -NAO/-AO look."

I doubt anybody "missed" the very obvious -PNA tendency on the models. But a -PNA with a -NAO can still be pretty good in New England.. and the models showed several possible threats in the LR due to the favorable pattern created by the -NAO.

I haven't seen any posts by you arguing that the -NAO would fail to materialize. In fact just yesterday you told me on the phone the -NAO was basically a lock because it was now into the D7-10 range. Well it just went poof basically (slight exaggeration). You have basically been arguing that the -NAO isn't enough and would be trumped by the Pacific... which I think some people have given pretty good evidence to the contrary of. I haven't really heard you giving a physical argument for why the -NAO would not actually happen.

The NAO block was definitely the key to the snowfall threat. A -PNA/-NAO profile is actually quite conductive to New England snowfall...but without the -NAO, it will just produce a big ridge in the central/eastern US allowing for a lot of lakes cutters...with a -NAO/-PNA, you can still get lakes cutters, but its harder and several of them will likely redevelop into a miller B or at least into a stout SW flow event where cold hangs tough over NE....or clipper types that produce moderate snows here.

My forecast won't work out too well if the NAO is just a transient ridge, though we still might get a snowfall anyway. If that turns out to be the case, then my ideas will only be a half truth. But beyond the "forecast period" (beyond the 10th), we can still see more snow if the -NAO doesn't come back. Even a N Atl ridge with some ugly low heights in the NW with an Aleution ridge can produce....Dec 1975 saw those conditions.

[nzucker]

To the bolded: Then why did you write this in your winter forecast:

"In the past two years, the NAO has spent approximately three months in positive territory; this pattern will continue throughout the winter"

"I tried to stick with analogs that had more of a -NAO/-AO look."

I doubt anybody "missed" the very obvious -PNA tendency on the models. But a -PNA with a -NAO can still be pretty good in New England.. and the models showed several possible threats in the LR due to the favorable pattern created by the -NAO.

I haven't seen any posts by you arguing that the -NAO would fail to materialize. In fact just yesterday you told me on the phone the -NAO was basically a lock because it was now into the D7-10 range. Well it just went poof basically (slight exaggeration). You have basically been arguing that the -NAO isn't enough and would be trumped by the Pacific... which I think some people have given pretty good evidence to the contrary of. I haven't really heard you giving a physical argument for why the -NAO would not actually happen.

I think we'll average a -NAO this winter; I'm actually more aggressive than most professional forecasts about the staying power of the Greenland block. I just doubt we'll see the type of blocking we had last winter where the -NAO was present at all times and of record strength. That just doesn't seem likely considering ENSO and QBO factors. The NAO still happens on all the models, but it is just overwhelmed by the ridging ahead of the western storm and then is eventually forced east by the PV. I think that's a likely outcome as we might see a 54-55 pattern this winter with the NAO constantly being sheared out to the SE as more of a North Atlantic ridge rather than an 09-10 style mega block, probably due in part to the low heights over Alaska and the colder stratosphere. There is no physical argument for why the -NAO will not happen because we will easily average a -NAO in the next 10 days, Andrew. I am not arguing that.

I am also not saying the -NAO/-PNA pattern can't be good for SNE. There are many examples of this pattern working out well like 07-08; although the best snows were up in NNE and Quebec that winter which is logical given the Pacific state, SNE still did pretty well on snowfall. But in this case, the Pacific is just too strong of a signal. I'm not arguing that SNE can't get snow in a -NAO/-PNA pattern; I'm discussing this particular storm. The miserable Pacific and time of year make it a long shot at best. I have been saying that for days and don't see why there is resistance to my comments.

Are you coming on Facebook, Andrew?

[ORH_wxman]

I am also not saying the -NAO/-PNA pattern can't be good for SNE. There are many examples of this pattern working out well like 07-08; although the best snows were up in NNE and Quebec that winter which is logical given the Pacific state, SNE still did pretty well on snowfall. But in this case, the Pacific is just too strong of a signal. I'm not arguing that SNE can't get snow in a -NAO/-PNA pattern; I'm discussing this particular storm. The miserable Pacific and time of year make it a long shot at best. I have been saying that for days and don't see why there is resistance to my comments.

Just a correction...the '07-'08 winter was a raging +NAO....but it still worked out because we had enough cross polar flow and the +NAO was very robust in SW Greenland and into Davis Straight and down into extreme NE Canada as to favor a high pressure in Quebec and Nova Scotia which held the cold air in okay in New England...at least enough to get some good SWFE.

[nzucker]

Just a correction...the '07-'08 winter was a raging +NAO....but it still worked out because we had enough cross polar flow and the +NAO was very robust in SW Greenland and into Davis Straight and down into extreme NE Canada as to favor a high pressure in Quebec and Nova Scotia which held the cold air in okay in New England...at least enough to get some good SWFE.

Yes you're right. We had a -PNA that year though. Sometimes a +NAO can be OK for New England if the vortex gets far enough south to bleed in some cold air.

I guess 64-65 and 08-09 would be examples of good SNE winters with a -NAO/-PNA pattern.

[skierinvermont]

I think we'll average a -NAO this winter; I'm actually more aggressive than most professional forecasts about the staying power of the Greenland block. I just doubt we'll see the type of blocking we had last winter where the -NAO was present at all times and of record strength. That just doesn't seem likely considering ENSO and QBO factors. The NAO still happens on all the models, but it is just overwhelmed by the ridging ahead of the western storm and then is eventually forced east by the PV. I think that's a likely outcome as we might see a 54-55 pattern this winter with the NAO constantly being sheared out to the SE as more of a North Atlantic ridge rather than an 09-10 style mega block, probably due in part to the low heights over Alaska and the colder stratosphere. There is no physical argument for why the -NAO will not happen because we will easily average a -NAO in the next 10 days, Andrew. I am not arguing that.

I am also not saying the -NAO/-PNA pattern can't be good for SNE. There are many examples of this pattern working out well like 07-08; although the best snows were up in NNE and Quebec that winter which is logical given the Pacific state, SNE still did pretty well on snowfall. But in this case, the Pacific is just too strong of a signal. I'm not arguing that SNE can't get snow in a -NAO/-PNA pattern; I'm discussing this particular storm. The miserable Pacific and time of year make it a long shot at best. I have been saying that for days and don't see why there is resistance to my comments.

Are you coming on Facebook, Andrew?

I thought 07-08 was a +NAO?

Anyways the point being just because the Pacific looks bad doesn't mean we wouldn't have had above normal snow chances if we had a good -NAO block in the right spot like the models were showing. When the models have had the -NAO block, they have been giving us snow threats. I still think if the good -NAO block over baffin island shows up again on the models we have a good shot at some snow at least in the interior.

[ORH_wxman]

Yes you're right. We had a -PNA that year though. Sometimes a +NAO can be OK for New England if the vortex gets far enough south to bleed in some cold air.

I guess 64-65 and 08-09 would be examples of good SNE winters with a -NAO/-PNA pattern.

Here's a full list of the -NAO/-PNA winters since 1950....not all of them are Ninas of course, but a lot of them are.

1955-1956

1961-1962

1964-1965

1965-1966

1967-1968

1968-1969

1970-1971

1978-1979

1981-1982

1984-1985

2008-2009

[40/70 Benchmark]

Here's a full list of the -NAO/-PNA winters since 1950....not all of them are Ninas of course, but a lot of them are.

1955-1956

1961-1962

1964-1965

1965-1966

1967-1968

1968-1969

1970-1971

1978-1979

1981-1982

1984-1985

2008-2009

70" avg......7" above avg.

[nzucker]

Definitely some heavy hitters on that list.

Of course 78-79 is on there too

[40/70 Benchmark]

Definitely some heavy hitters on that list.

Of course 78-79 is on there too

Better than 06-07.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro is is disgusting in the Nov 29-Dec 1 time range.Its popping a solid -EPO by Dec 1...so it looks like it wants to recover after that if the model run went further.

[weatherwiz]

Euro is is disgusting in the Nov 29-Dec 1 time range.Its popping a solid -EPO by Dec 1...so it looks like it wants to recover after that if the model run went further.

Maybe we can get another Dec 1st, 2006 type event.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Maybe we can get another Dec 1st, 2006 type event.

[weatherwiz]

I'm kind of serious there, obviously that wouldn't mean much for SNE but until we really get a cold pattern here in the east as long as were in the pattern to see increasing heights out of these systems it could be pretty active convective wise.

Last Wednesday's event I think went unnoticed by many, except for those in the mid-Atlantic probably but for a system like that to produce what it did for this time of year is pretty remarkable. I didn't pay much attention to what occurred in the mid-west area today but it seems like it was quite active.

While we may not see much fun here until things change the upcoming pattern is going to be quite volatile.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm kind of serious there, obviously that wouldn't mean much for SNE but until we really get a cold pattern here in the east as long as were in the pattern to see increasing heights out of these systems it could be pretty active convective wise.

Last Wednesday's event I think went unnoticed by many, except for those in the mid-Atlantic probably but for a system like that to produce what it did for this time of year is pretty remarkable. I didn't pay much attention to what occurred in the mid-west area today but it seems like it was quite active.

While we may not see much fun here until things change the upcoming pattern is going to be quite volatile.

[nzucker]

Euro is is disgusting in the Nov 29-Dec 1 time range.Its popping a solid -EPO by Dec 1...so it looks like it wants to recover after that if the model run went further.

Horrid run if you like snow and cold...that Wednesday storm cuts way to our west with +5C 850s over most of SNE. It looks as if another cutter may be coming at Day 10 with the low over Texas although some colder has moved into the picture, would still be extremely marginal and largely a rain event outside the elevations as depicted by the 0z ECM. It does have a bit of a -EPO pattern but it looks too far west, causing a trough to dig into the American West as we saw this week. I want to see that block merge into more of a +PNA instead of staying over the Aleutians/Western Alaska which carves out a big Pacific Northwest low that in turn increases 500mb heights over the East Coast.

[ORH_wxman]

Horrid run if you like snow and cold...that Wednesday storm cuts way to our west with +5C 850s over most of SNE. It looks as if another cutter may be coming at Day 10 with the low over Texas although some colder has moved into the picture, would still be extremely marginal and largely a rain event outside the elevations as depicted by the 0z ECM. It does have a bit of a -EPO pattern but it looks too far west, causing a trough to dig into the American West as we saw this week. I want to see that block merge into more of a +PNA instead of staying over the Aleutians/Western Alaska which carves out a big Pacific Northwest low that in turn increases 500mb heights over the East Coast.

Yeah its ugly, not the kind of pattern we want to see...I just talked to DT online though...he really hit the pattern hard saying the NAO block wouldn't develop and called it days ago when I talked to him then. But he said New England def. has a chance probably after Dec 3-4th. But he is pessimistic on the rest of the east of anything.

He did say New England will be the winner in the east this year...he been on fire recently and destroying JB. His first IM to me was something like "So I wonder how the late Nov 1989/2002 pattern is working out for JB"