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The Psuhoffman Storm


Ji

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To sum up the overnites...6Z nam bullish, 6Z gfs a bit south and east with the heavy stuff, RUC somewhere in between those two, and the recent SREF wet and cold. Is that about right?

This is going to be a long day of waiting to see if the second part develops in a way that makes us all happy.

Bumping to avoid the latest Watch-gate talk.

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If anyhing, I think the CWG forecast for dc may be on the conservative side based on the what the 06Z nama nd gfs is showing. Almost all the heavy precipitation looks to be snow as the hieghts crash and both models show about 1" of liquid equivalent as snow. The nam sounding by 21z is snow with an unstable layer. If the 12Z run continues to show a similar looks, I'll lobby for pushing the range for dc up and inch or snow as 3 inches looks too low for the low end but think it wise to wait for the new guidance.

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Anne Arundel is south of Baltimore and closer to the bay, both factors that could keep us warmer than Baltimore for an hour or two. If the precip from 3-5 pm today is moderate to heavy while it's still in the 33-34 degree range here, but 31-32 in Baltimore their decision will probably be validated. If the temp drops before the heavy precip arrives, they might replace the advisory with a warning. In the end though, us being under and advisory or warning won't influence the weather, so it will have no affect on what actually accumulates here.

Anne Arundel County under a WWA, too, yet Baltimore is WSW

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First time poster here, love what you guys do. Why do you think the NWS has been cutting back on accumulations all morning? From what i gathered from the 6Z nam, still gives us a pretty good thump here in Arlington, Va. Thanks

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First time poster here, love what you guys do. Why do you think the NWS has been cutting back on accumulations all morning? From what i gathered from the 6Z nam, still gives us a pretty good thump here in Arlington, Va. Thanks

When did they cut back on accumulations? The warning out west says 5-10 inches now - the warning close to the north west says 4-8 and the advisory says 3-5 for most.

Not sure what you're referring to.

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Still under a WWA here. But have seen the numbers drop from 3-5...2-4...and now 1-3.

When did they cut back on accumulations? The warning out west says 5-10 inches now - the warning close to the north west says 4-8 and the advisory says 3-5 for most.

Not sure what you're referring to.

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Still under a WWA here. But have seen the numbers drop from 3-5...2-4...and now 1-3.

Would help if you shared your location in your profile so people know where "here" is.

Even St. Mary's Co. in Maryland still has a WWA for 2-4 inches which seems pretty reasonable to me. Maybe a smidge higher. If anything the numbers have risen in the warning/adv text mainly to the west.

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Snow...mainly in the evening. Snow may be heavy at times in the evening. Total snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Lows in the upper 20s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.

22203 Arlington

Would help if you shared your location in your profile so people know where "here" is.

Even St. Mary's Co. in Maryland still has a WWA for 2-4 inches which seems pretty reasonable to me. Maybe a smidge higher. If anything the numbers have risen in the warning/adv text mainly to the west.

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Can someone explain/theorize what it is that LWX is seeing that we're not which is leading them to get significantly more pessimistic about this storm in the face of fairly consistent model runs? Obviously, these guys are pros. But if their thought is that the rain/snow changeover will occur late in the evening, where do they get the support for their opinion?

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If the rain/snow issue is what's keeping our totals down here in the DC area, I have to say... I can't see how, with the rates we're talking about later (and with snow already covering the grass) we have trouble with snow sticking. Our high today is 34. With what's on the ground I'm sure if we get some decent rates, which looks very likely, we will have no trouble surpassing the 2-4 inch accumulations LWX is calling for, as well as dropping two degrees to get to the freezing mark.

I can see if all we had this morning was wet ground and grassy areas, but that's not the case.

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When the bufkit information comes out for the 12z NAM and 12z GFS runs could someone post it in this thread since it's for model discussion? I think the predicted temps at all levels at that point will help in determining when we think a changeover from rain/sleet/snow to all snow would happen, and maybe reduce the concerns about watch vs warning.

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