mahk_webstah Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I was just finishing the deck with Diamond Dust falling under a half moon sky when it occurred to me that the thousand and thousands of posts I made finally culminated in yet another long lasting memory. Getting up at 2 to heavy snow, outside shoveling until 3 , with TSSN+, seeing the great majority of posters here reaching the 1 2+ mark and beyond. A special day all around, thanks for sharing it with me. What a party eh? Amen! What a great week of chat, model watching, checking on my handheld from the gym, trying to convince my partner that I wasn't looking at "that fooking weather thing", and then realizing on Tuesday that this was really happening.....made way more fun by listening to everyone's observations, stories, opinions, agonizing, etc! I'm not that old but the older I get the more I realize you just have to do what you love and go into it full bore. Looking forward to the GTG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 the way the 500 low passed looked pretty nasty beforehand. i remember commenting a few times in our threads that people would get 2'+.. it looked like feb 5-6 down here in some ways. only part of it, but was a pretty sick signature there. every big storm is a ku now it seems. what happened to the 6-10 ric to bos storm? Hey Ian, I thought the same, mentioned it here, best night day on the boards since Jan Dec 05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I'm going to bust low on snow totals for the season. How much does Boston have on the season? I'm actually inclined to agree...I think NYC could see 50-60" with Boston 75-100". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I think it's easy for everyone to just point at the NAM and say how it schooled the other models... but I don't think it's that simple. Though the NAM had the right idea in being further west I think most mets (including you, me, and scooter) thought edging toward the western edge of the envelope was the way to go. As it turned out the NAM was too far west and too amped up (surprise) and it's QPF was on the high side (surprise again). Everything came together perfectly to make this event overperform. I'm not sure it gives me any more faith in using the NAM in the future though lol. Low tracked right on top of the NAM's solution though - No? But yeah, when I brought that up, it was not just to make a blanket statement. The reasons why the NAM was the way to go were heavily outlined over a few days leading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 3" new now since 1pm and it's Ice now. 23" Please dear God get me my 9th 2 Foot Storm...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Amen! What a great week of chat, model watching, checking on my handheld from the gym, trying to convince my partner that I wasn't looking at "that fooking weather thing", and then realizing on Tuesday that this was really happening.....made way more fun by listening to everyone's observations, stories, opinions, agonizing, etc! I'm not that old but the older I get the more I realize you just have to do what you love and go into it full bore. Looking forward to the GTG At this rate we will need National Gaurd for some the CT guys to get to the GTG, hoping beyond hope the Euro is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 omg..I can't even fathom that right now considering it will be cold until then, so snow isn't going anywhere. There is literally no place to put the snow here in Dobbs Ferry between the Boxing Day storm's remnants, the Norlun that dropped 4", and the recent Miller B. I can't even imagine the impact of another big Nor'easter, especially if it's a snow and ice mix. Going to be very nasty on the streets especially after a period of brutally cold winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Hey Ian, I thought the same, mentioned it here, best night day on the boards since Jan Dec 05 even tho some of you guys wished this season on us after last yr im happy for y'all. it does look like quite the event from afar. could be an epic winter if things dont collapse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Oh the humanity as the storm withdrawals kick in... Shaking, sweating, hallucinations ...someone get those monkeys off that wall! Judging by the distribution of snow totals and the other actuals about this event the NAM destroyed all of them, even the ECM left desired. The NAM locked in at 72-84 hours and never let go. Yes. John, kudos to you as well. Despite certain posters repeatedly saying the NAM was a worthless POS you stuck to your guns and were totally proven right. I'll remember that for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 No, it didn't bad - sure. But the NAM was better. The way I look at it, NAM had a good handle on the proverbial gory details while ECMWF signaled for nearly a week something big is on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 So over the last 4 hours, I've developed a fever, chills, and almost puked. Norovirus FTL. Thank God my snow is clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 FOR THE WIN CONNECTICUT ...HARTFORD COUNTY... MANCHESTER 27.0 554 PM 1/12 HAM RADIO GLASTONBURY 25.5 540 PM 1/12 HAM RADIO NEW BRITAIN 24.3 545 PM 1/12 HAM RADIO ELLINGTON 24.0 236 PM 1/12 HAM RADIO SOUTH WINDSOR 22.1 420 PM 1/12 NWS EMPLOYEE WEST HARTFORD 22.0 244 PM 1/12 HAM RADIO WETHERSFIELD 22.0 240 PM 1/12 HAM RADIO SUFFIELD 21.0 551 PM 1/12 HAM RADIO ENFIELD 19.7 238 PM 1/12 HAM RADIO ...TOLLAND COUNTY... STAFFORDVILLE 26.0 321 PM 1/12 NWS COOP TOLLAND 25.0 543 PM 1/12 ELLINGTON 24.0 539 PM 1/12 HAM RADIO VERNON 23.0 538 PM 1/12 HAM RADIO STAFFORD SPRINGS 22.6 435 PM 1/12 SOMERS 21.0 200 PM 1/12 UNION 19.0 300 PM 1/12 STORRS 17.5 425 PM 1/12 SPOTTER Not to toatlyy rain on your parade but the biggest totals were here in good old Masschusetts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 ECM shows a 1004mb low tracking from HSE bombing to 980mb near the Benchmark. Most people from NYC north probably stay all snow. HPC has 96 in Boston Harbor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I'm going to be writing a post mortem on this event in a little bit. Overall the mesoscale models definitely were more accurate (as we thougt) in this setup than the global models....but the most important thing will be why it went from a general MECS to a HECS across a good chunk of the interior (and even CP up by Ray and SE NH). There were a lot of interesting ingredients to this storm and they came together nearly perfectly. Will, I'm really interested to read your thoughts on this system. Hope you've had enough sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 HPC has 96 in Boston Harbor BL temperatures are a little worrying though on the 12z ECM...850s don't get past around -1/-2C here so it would probably stay snow/mix for me, but it's definitely warm at the surface with a prolonged period of southerly/easterly flow ahead of a primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 21.5" several hours ago before I went out to run the snowblower and frolic in the snow. Neighbor & I saluted Uulr several times with some Crown Royal as we removed snow from places it was in the way. 23" total. Yeeehaaa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 The way I look at it, NAM had a good handle on the proverbial gory details while ECMWF signaled for nearly a week something big is on the way. GFS ensembles were very good a week out too. The operational GFS was awful...consistently southeast of the ensembles for about a week. The thing with the NAM is...it's awful with synoptics in the 36-84 hour range...sometimes even earlier. Even if it had the better idea of the more dynamic coastal transfer and the tucked in solution...if it doesn't have the 500mb pattern close to correct..than it still remains of limited use. It makes more sense to use the globals for the general synoptic features but shift the surface low position further tucked in to account for non-hydrostatic processes instead of saying well the NAM was awesome here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 could cape ann (vicinity) get a 2-4 tonite from that band coming down from portland / lewiston? looks like it has a good SW push? strange the storm will not go away ...it's like one of those halloween movies where jason won't die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 21.5" several hours ago before I went out to run the snowblower and frolic in the snow. Neighbor & I saluted Uulr several times with some Crown Royal as we removed snow from places it was in the way. 23" total. Yeeehaaa. Sweet NECT representing tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winteraddict Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 How much did boston get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 So over the last 4 hours, I've developed a fever, chills, and almost puked. Norovirus FTL. Thank God my snow is clear. I can not believe the number of people that have been sick epidemic proportions, my entire staff is ill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Thanks fellas.. The top wx event of my life today..hands down I still cannot believe that! Were you originally from this area? That's shocking about the snow totals! [ I think.....that the ECMWF overall did quite well. It and only it correctly targeted ME for big totals that they got. NAM though gave the signal which was loud and clear. I think that GFS/UKMET were in la la land. Uk corrected in the final run prior to the event ....6 hour lead time. CMC was decent from 2 days out. But NAM led them to water. Still though, ECMWF locked and loaded from 5 days out. Initially over the bm and correcting as we moved in. The Euro did ok but it was too far east right up to the bitter end. NAM nailed the surface track but oddly kind of botched temps down here. Again IMBY. NAM had issues on the sw side of the low to start, once it got developing it was pretty good. I think when all is said and done if we take official station W.E. we'll find towards the end all models had the general theme right at 0z and really even earlier, a max in CT and another max to the east. The MM5 wasn't so hot at noon yesterday...bad timing issues, it NAILED the track at 0z last night and really the temp profiles too, absolutely crushed the track. So did the later RUC's as we got into the evening. The HRRR, I'm not sure it was all that great here again with temps. ARW and NMM had their moments, like the NAM they seemed to come on strong later as the storm developed. The thing that's interesting is the next time it comes down to the NAM v EC everyone will raise the flag and say "do you remember the time" and the EC will take the NAM to the woodshed. So far this winter models seem to have their strong periods, I'm curious as to how the rest of the year goes. I know it's a primitive measure but I'm not certain when all is said and done the QPF output of the models as a whole/Euro etc was bad...huge ratios out west, low ratios out east. I think it's easy for everyone to just point at the NAM and say how it schooled the other models... but I don't think it's that simple. Though the NAM had the right idea in being further west I think most mets (including you, me, and scooter) thought edging toward the western edge of the envelope was the way to go. As it turned out the NAM was too far west and too amped up (surprise) and it's QPF was on the high side (surprise again). Everything came together perfectly to make this event overperform. I'm not sure it gives me any more faith in using the NAM in the future though lol. Well said Ryan as always. Did the storm overperforming (KTAN noted it was stronger than modeled a couple of times even vs the NAM) help to make the NAM right in terms of driving the dynamics. IE, if the storm had come through as modeled by the NAM would it have been as "good" a few mb weaker? Who knows. If you were a forecaster in SE MA using it for temp profiles last night you may not think it was as great if that was all you cared about. I don't think in general QPF on the Euro or even the GEFS will have been terrible when normal biases are considered/local effects etc. As someone who always favored the NAM over the others and often argued the point, I have no more faith in it after this event that I did prior. I hope Will does a W.E. map as part of the writeup. --- We picked up another .7 since about 6 when I last measured. Storm just keeps going and one more intense band will try to hit me. if it does I'll really remember this storm the ultimate overperformer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 #1 Jan 96 in center city philly #2 PD1 in Dover DE (5"/hour band) #3 Jan 12 2011 (20 inches in 9 hours, 22 total) #4 Jan 1999 in Chicago (a true all out 22 inch blizzard) #5 Feb 5 1978 in Dover DE (got me hooked) #6 Mar 93 in Philly (for the sheer monstrosity of it) #7 PD2 in Phily. (somewhat ruined by heavy heavy sleet after 18 inches of snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Sweet NECT representing tonight Doing my best to enjoy it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Jan11, 2011 Snow Pics i think it's finally over...hope to take some more pics in the sunlight tomorrow...what a great show! congrats to everyone, when's the next one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Frickin' Danbury has like 47" somehow. Quincy had a snow magnet surgically implanted as a meteorology school graduation present Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 even tho some of you guys wished this season on us after last yr im happy for y'all. it does look like quite the event from afar. could be an epic winter if things dont collapse. You know that is not me. I wish epic winters on all Good JuJu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Low tracked right on top of the NAM's solution though - No? But yeah, when I brought that up, it was not just to make a blanket statement. The reasons why the NAM was the way to go were heavily outlined over a few days leading. I also think a general 12-20 for many was a reasonable forecast, but we all kind of knew some would do better. The thing is, it's hard to go widespread 20"+ unless you are 100% certain, and I think there were a couple of small things that prevented that. However, many said it could happen because all of the key ingredients were available, but it's just tough to go that high for such a big area of real estate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 The way I look at it, NAM had a good handle on the proverbial gory details while ECMWF signaled for nearly a week something big is on the way. I'm surprised the Euro had track problems. We've had big dynamic storms before and it mostly always would be dead on at 12 hours lead time. The difference in the ACK track vs where it went was a foot of snow over EMA. NAM temp profiles were problematic down here, but there's no denying it nailed the track - albeit it did shift east over time, but that mainly had an effect of taking away precip in NJ and bringing it into Maine. Remember when it had the dynamics to drive 2-3" QPF in CT? IT gradually dumped that idea in favor of it winding up more as it progressed, and left CT with a solid 1.5-2.3 or so, and brought Maine/NH slowly into the picture. AN IDEA the euro had more right all along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 BL temperatures are a little worrying though on the 12z ECM...850s don't get past around -1/-2C here so it would probably stay snow/mix for me, but it's definitely warm at the surface with a prolonged period of southerly/easterly flow ahead of a primary. Looks like there is a high off the coast by NS...not good for you but no problem for me. The hope is for a decent front end thump for you .... I probably have all snow and maybe finish with a crust in that setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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