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January 11-12 Snowstorm Disco -II


Baroclinic Zone

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Just walked outside. Wasn't coming down too heavy. Went to our roof, which is usually blown clean in big storms. Nice, even accumulations up there. I measured about 7.5" of condo-crushing paste on the deck with my hand (didn't bring my ruler as I didn't think I'd be able to get a clean measurement anywhere).

From my windows, I can easily make out the shadows of the Hancock buildings, which says we aren't in the 2-3"/hr stuff right now. Probably barely 1"/hr attm.

I can definitely see now how Boston stays in the lower end - 14-15" - given the heft of this snow.

Still, this is a much cooler event here than the Blizzard.

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The nam sucked too last night. Temp profiles were awful so let's not say it nailed it. So did yesterday's mm5 which couldn't place the low within 100 miles. Go look.

I was wrong on the track, but has anyone seen a widespread 2-3" qpf yet through the entirety of ct/w MA like the nam had?

No...the NAM had issues too. But as for overdoing QPF...it's a known bias. But definitely nailed the idea that all of CT was gonna get plastered...not just the eastern third. I hope I'm not seen as criticizing your call...you had your reasons and no one ever gets these things perfect. I never expected W CT to break 12" even though I had a little more faith in the NAM.

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Just walked outside. Wasn't coming down too heavy. Went to our roof, which is usually blown clean in big storms. Nice, even accumulations up there. I measured about 7.5" of condo-crushing paste on the deck with my hand (didn't bring my ruler as I didn't think I'd be able to get a clean measurement anywhere).

From my windows, I can easily make out the shadows of the Hancock buildings, which says we aren't in the 2-3"/hr stuff right now. Probably barely 1"/hr attm.

I can definitely see now how Boston stays in the lower end - 14-15" - given the heft of this snow.

Still, this is a much cooler event here than the Blizzard.

I think above that will be very tough. Reaching a foot is the benchmark for BOS I think

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No...the NAM had issues too. But as for overdoing QPF...it's a known bias. But definitely nailed the idea that all of CT was gonna get plastered...not just the eastern third. I hope I'm not seen as criticizing your call...you had your reasons and no one ever gets these things perfect. I never expected W CT to break 12" even though I had a little more faith in the NAM.

Same here. I leaned more towards the NAM than anything but I still didn't think W. CT would do this well...I'll bust for W. CT...think I went 8-16'' for far western CT...oops.

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:axe:

Really? Many of the NAM runs were dead on. Come on, really.

Last night the last thing I said was the qpf would be exactly where the nam pinned it. Exactly where the gfs was showing the max to be in ct. But like i said I was wrong on the track. It happens. The nam schooled the euro, and every other model.

The 0z kind of stunk on temp profiles here, but it did very well highlighting everything else.

It goes to show tt was right. This is the 2nd or third blizzard warning were a ton of people woke up to clear streets. I'd say Boston tv mets - Harv nailed it. Right down to the max zones but even all of them are coming in way low.

It happens I was wrong. I'm usually the big fan of the nam v euro it figures the one time I flip the other way the euro lays a deuce

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