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January 11-12 Snowstorm Disco


Baroclinic Zone

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It's apparent verification 12z/0z showed at least a 100 mile "error". Not that worried about it either way, even if right. We should do okay here, 4-8/6-12 but we're not the jackpot more than likely.

I'm concerned the rain at Montauk and 36 degree temp at Block Island could spell bad things for us tonight while our friends a few miles away are in heaven.

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It's apparent verification 12z/0z showed at least a 100 mile "error". Not that worried about it either way, even if right. We should do okay here, 4-8/6-12 but we're not the jackpot more than likely.

Yup, pretty much resigned to that fact. I told a coworker 8" along the south coast (Dartmouth area). I feel pretty good about that call.

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RUC absolutely keeps insisting the 0c 8h will smoke into SE CT/RI/MA by about 3-4am.

I don't believe this but every once in a while it's right, and it's not really backing down. If the RUC is right I might get 2-4" before a change.

Messenger, let's be honest, the RUC sucks. It's even giving me like 10 hours of straight 1''/hr+ snow and I say it sucks. Enjoy your snow and don't worry about that garbage.

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Messenger, let's be honest, the RUC sucks. It's even giving me like 10 hours of straight 1''/hr+ snow and I say it sucks. Enjoy your snow and don't worry about that garbage.

wouldn't be so sure

looks like lP is damn near 30 miles SE from Atlantic city

http://climate.cod.e...st-WV.loop.html

i'm gettin a little ancy

Pete and MPM may be putting on their jackpot shoes ....but maybe not looks like the low for now is sliding a bit NNE/NE at least from what i could tell on radar.....don't want that to hook left toward wall street messenger

thats why i'd like your thoughts on where the dang mid level low will close over the coastal. further west than modeled ...or east.

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Radar looks like it's lighting up over much of CT but Htfd and Bdl still reporting just overcast.

Htfd still at 65% RH so I'm guessing dry air is still wedged into the valley? Got get that RH up into the 90% range I would think to get some good snow going.

Great point. Our weather station at UMass reporting 62% RH. I was thinking maybe something was wrong with my radar because it wasn't picking up some the Nexrad echoes.

I am looking too low for them!

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wouldn't be so sure

looks like lP is damn near a stone's throw from Atlantic city

http://climate.cod.e...st-WV.loop.html

i'm gettin a little ancy

Pete and MPM may be putting on their jackpot shoes

You're worrying too much...even in the extremely unlikely event you got sleet, you would get crushed with a lot of snow first...and then probably after too. There's a good chance you don't jackpot (there's never a good chance for anyone to jackpot)....so don't sweat it.

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RUC absolutely keeps insisting the 0c 8h will smoke into SE CT/RI/MA by about 3-4am.

I don't believe this but every once in a while it's right, and it's not really backing down. If the RUC is right I might get 2-4" before a change.

Just watched one of the local mets give his caveat about the Valley/I-91 corridor saying "sometimes unfavorable dynamics set up limiting maximum snowfall potential out of these systems". Blah, blah blah 8 - 10" in the S. valley blah, blah, blah. Still a good snowfall and I bet, looking at the radar it comes in higher than that.

If the coast flips for a while and the Valley etc. under performs, tomorrow we will see the obligatory agitated posts from people saying "I knew this wouldn't pan out"

Whatever.

All I know is it gon' snow, I'm calling 12" imby and I'm going to bed very happy.

See everyone in a few hours.

:snowman:

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