TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Not buying the GFS being so warm lol, weather models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 so... we are pretty much following a threat that's lasting all week giving us many different types of precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Are you saying the NADS storm is going to get kicked in the NADS? No Just hit New england Again. **** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Not buying the GFS being so warm lol, weather models. convenient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 so... we are pretty much following a threat that's lasting all week giving us many different types of precip? NO. that would be interesting. What we are doing isn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 convenient i mean i am by no means forecasting a big winter storm here, but i mean its 48hrs away and the models still don't know whats going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 No Just hit New england Again. **** Ah, I see....the MA is getting kicked in the NADS again. Seasonal trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 "Ah, I see....the MA is getting kicked in the NADS again. Seasonal trend." The great NADS Storm of 2011 lives up to its name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 NO. that would be interesting. What we are doing isn't Oh ok... I thought maybe for a second climo didn't suck and we were actually getting something worth tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 GFS looks toasty I think that's going to have to wait until the event is ongoing to be nailed down. The bigger question is on the precip-- do we get any Monday evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Ah, I see....the MA is getting kicked in the NADS again. Seasonal trend. No it actually clipped us with maybe an inch or two and acout the same for extreme coastal New england. But overall it's a better setup for them unless that troff diggs further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 The irony is actually pretty damn funny. Last year we watched every possible way a storm can crush the MA and this year we're watching every possible way we can screwed. Climo is the mean of the extremes anyway. It's not like weather is stable and right now MA weenies are very unstable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I must be looking at the wrong maps or something. I don't see how this run is noticeably warmer than 18z was. I know you guys are looking at the DC-Balt corridor, but over here we look to get 18+ hours of precip with temps under 32, some with 850's under as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 The irony is actually pretty damn funny. Last year we watched every possible way a storm can crush the MA and this year we're watching every possible way we can screwed. Climo is the mean of the extremes anyway. It's not like weather is stable and right now MA weenies are very unstable. That's reality more often than not, including this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I must be looking at the wrong maps or something. I don't see how this run is noticeably warmer than 18z was. I know you guys are looking at the DC-Balt corridor, but over here we look to get 18+ hours of precip with temps under 32, some with 850's under as well. Temps will likely verify a bit colder than modeled on 0Z. HP location and wind direction argue for colder temps at the surface. Setups like this are always more of a nowcast when it comes to surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I must be looking at the wrong maps or something. I don't see how this run is noticeably warmer than 18z was. I know you guys are looking at the DC-Balt corridor, but over here we look to get 18+ hours of precip with temps under 32, some with 850's under as well. Not that much warmer-- but it is noticeable in that the 0C line retreats further to the west, and starts the retreat earlier during the night. But, again, it doesn't matter exactly what it shows right now because it's almost for sure not going to be right anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I have to try and get this straight. Are we upset that the run isn't showing a 12+ event over the next 7 days? We do have some winter weather in there. That sure beats the past month for the most part. Heck, even NE doesn't get anything more out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 NADS storm looks fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 That's reality more often than not, including this year. No argument from me on that. Especially over the last decade. If it wasn't for 02-03 and 09-10, the suicide hotline would have needed to outsource to India. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 NADS storm looks fine. Whew! That's a relief. NOBODY wants to have the NADS look terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 i think the gfs is starting to trend towards Euro a bit for the the DT facebook threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 NADS storm looks fine. I think so too. The irony in these threads is sometimes comical. The 120-144 hour doesn't show a blizzard, well, should have known we'd be screwed (meaning: the model is correct). The 48-60 shows some winter weather, well, you know it will be wrong. ????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Can someone breakdown how much snow/ice/rain for this Tuesday mess? I don't see anything on Wednesday so not sure what that talk is about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Can someone breakdown how much snow/ice/rain for this Tuesday mess? I don't see anything on Wednesday so not sure what that talk is about. Your area looks to get more precip than I do, but your temps look a little warmer. I'm somewhere in the .25 to .5 range while the temps are below freezing. Of course that just on the GFS, but who know what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 this is the most confusing storm of all time Monday-Tuesday looks like a bit of snow...a bit of zr and a bit of rain. GFS has backed off the major qpf for our area right behind that storm is another piece of energy that gives us rain ending as flurries or light snow then right behind that is the Euro storm or the GFS storm....the EURO storm is more ominous but its probably BS because it gives us real wintry weather while the GFS grazes us with a miller B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 the DT facebook threat is the one for next Friday. GFS gives us .20 of snow right now. is the NADS storm the monday storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 The GFS is having a hard time with the NADS storm. It doesn't look to be handling the southern stream correctly and just 12 hours ago, it didn't even really have a storm affecting our area for the end of the week. The GFS is going to play catch up with this system over the next 2-3 days, IMHO. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Is this the newest CMC? If so looks gfs ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 The Monday/Tuesday event looks to be a quick light snow to mix event. Overnight Monday/Tuesday the mix looks to turn to freezing rain and then all rain by dawn for all areas except the far NW suburbs. Of course, if you buy the NAM solution, disregard this forecast analysis. The GFS and the EURO are showing a storm for the end of the week. This is the NADS storm. Future guidance will tell whether the EURO or GFS has the correct solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Can someone breakdown how much snow/ice/rain for this Tuesday mess? I don't see anything on Wednesday so not sure what that talk is about. The general trend for Mon/Tue is starting off as a mix before turning into rain for the greater duration of the storm. The shortwave on Wed has been on today's 00z, 06z and 12z GFS as a possible light snow/mix event for the area, but the 18z has dismissed that to a large degree. It is unknown what kind of impact this second disturbance will actually have on the region, but it should be minor at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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