Ian Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 NAM continues to say nyet on ice/snow of consequence but GFS was better with last event (then again, NAM was better with Christmas storm ) The GFS should be better on coastals IMO but it's probably too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 The GFS should be better on coastals IMO but it's probably too cold. Why would it be too cold? (not being weenie, just curious since it usually tends to be too warm). I'm NOT rooting for ice, so don't beat me down! k? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Whichever model has the worse solution for us will verify. Now that is true weather pessimism--I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Why would it be too cold? (not being weenie, just curious since it usually tends to be too warm). I'm NOT rooting for ice, so don't beat me down! k? because it's colder than everything else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Why would it be too cold? (not being weenie, just curious since it usually tends to be too warm). I'm NOT rooting for ice, so don't beat me down! k? He's probably talking about above the surface-- no snow on the NAM. The surface depiction on this run of the NAM is actually a bit colder than the GFS at 12Z on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 He's probably talking about above the surface-- no snow on the NAM. The surface depiction on this run of the NAM is actually a bit colder than the GFS at 12Z on Tuesday. i actually didnt look at the surface of the nam.. i can buy it staying pretty cold thru morning especially nw of the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 because it's colder than everything else? Isn't temperature an end result of what it decides to do with the Secondary Coastal? GFS gets the coastal going pretty good early on, while the NAM decides not to. Which model would you prefer in a "secondary low" situation? ECMWF/GGEM family don't look all that good though. I guess its personal preference on my part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Now that is true weather pessimism--I like it. It may sound like pessimism, but it is realism. It is true almost all the time (outside of snow-blessed New England). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 It may sound like pessimism, but it is realism. It is true almost all the time (outside of snow-blessed New England). You are a broken record at this point. We get it. Enough already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 You are a broken record at this point. We get it. Enough already. You'll have to copy and paste that for a bunch of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Light Snow/sleet at 48 on the 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 You are a broken record at this point. We get it. Enough already. No you don't. You still wishcast like a dumb weenie when the wettest model gets you all excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 No you don't. You still wishcast like a dumb weenie when the wettest model gets you all excited STFU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Guy's let's talk about the weather instead of this dumb bickering, we have 3 threats to track let's do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Still snow/sleet north of EZF at 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Guy's let's talk about the weather instead of this dumb bickering, we have 3 threats to track let's do that. What is the 3rd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 No you don't. You still wishcast like a dumb weenie when the wettest model gets you all excited Do you really want to go there, Fizz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 What is the 3rd? Monday night- Tuesday and then Tuesday night Wed and of course Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 STFU Second. Back to the weather, the GFS is holding steady. Either it or the NAM has to blink sooner or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 GFS still looks mega-bullish for TUE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Way different than 18z. Much stronger disturbance over S Ohio. Fails to form a secondary low further south on the front though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Monday night- Tuesday and then Tuesday night Wed and of course Friday. The first two are the same storm, right? Just snow to ice to rain to snow to rain to ice to snow to ice to rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Snow to ice and then drizzle. Precip mostly shuts off once the real warm air comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Snow to ice and then drizzle. Precip mostly shuts off once the real warm air comes in. Yup. Dry slot comes in at 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 The first two are the same storm, right? Just snow to ice to rain to snow to rain to ice to snow to ice to rain? I have not been following since Friday morning because i was away and then of course the Ravens debacle today but according to the NWS: MODELS THEN SHOW THE ONE LOW NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MOVING AWAY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER SCALE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AFFECTING THE AREA. ECMWF IS QUICK ON THE HEELS OF THE PREVIOUS QPF MAKER WITH THIS MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS SLOWER FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THERES OBVIOUSLY SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL WINTRY PRECIP IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 The 0Z NAM ends up being significantly colder at the surface than the 0Z GFS, which is the warmest run at the surface of the past 3 GFS runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 The first two are the same storm, right? Just snow to ice to rain to snow to rain to ice to snow to ice to rain? LOL- That sounds like an easy forcast for LWX to nail down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Nice troff drpping towards the gulf at 96hrs the northern stream might screw up the setup though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 GFS looks toasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Nice troff drpping towards the gulf at 96hrs the northern stream might screw up the setup though. Are you saying the NADS storm is going to get kicked in the NADS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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