WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Euro.. Let's see some continuity. The Boxing Day storm had 6 runs of shocking consistency that all gave us 1'+ of snow. We know how that turned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The Boxing Day storm had 6 runs of shocking consistency that all gave us 1'+ of snow. We know how that turned out. True, but it was 50 miles away from being right, and quite frankly the Euro had the right general idea for that strom long before the other models. While it definitely sucked for those of us in Central MD/NOVA, you have to tip your hat to the Euro for that storm - it was bringing that storm up the coast run after run while the GFS and others were still kicking it way out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The Euro is a crap model right now as far as I am concerned for the Mid Atlantic. It has probably given us 50 inches of snow this year already and we have received one. its become Dr Yes and then Dr Wrong. The GFS which use to give us snowstorms left and right has been far more stubborn with showing snow on the model for DC and so far its been pretty much on par. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The Euro is a crap model right now as far as I am concerned for the Mid Atlantic. It has probably given us 50 inches of snow this year already and we have received one. its become Dr Yes and then Dr Wrong. The GFS which use to give us snowstorms left and right has been far more stubborn with showing snow on the model for DC and so far its been pretty much on par. There are a lot of people in Central and SE VA, the Eastern Shore of MD and all across Philly and Jersey who would disagree. Just because we missed out by 50 miles or so on the last one doesn't mean the model is crap...it outperformed all the other models for that storm. (Edited to add that I agree that this 00Z run is likely crap and I doubt it will verify - but it's silly to dismiss the whole model just because of our IMBY frustration) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 There are a lot of people in Central and SE VA, the Eastern Shore of MD and all across Philly and Jersey who would disagree. Just because we missed out by 50 miles or so on the last one doesn't mean the model is crap...it outperformed all the other models for that storm. its not just the Christmas Storm. It has given us multiple runs of Random MECS/HECS. Remember a few days ago, it showed a Miller A storm for this weekend which then became a Miller B clipper way to our north and then last night...a historic Miller B storm. Ask Ender about all the storms its shown us this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The Euro is without a doubt bull****. If you get suckered in by it, you deserved the crushing disappointment that's coming in 4 hours. The PV dropping to VA/Carolinas, spawning a crushing low that gives us 1" QPF THe second storm is more believable, but with such run to run volatility, I don't trust any models. I'm a bitter mofo after our swipe last week. If the 12z Euro shows the same thing, I'll make Ji an administrator. Don't toy with Ji like that. Either he gets to see a fantasy storm and become an admin. on the same day which would be weenie heaven. or Neither happens and we have to put him on suicide watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'm pretty sure I am going to stay as far away from this as I possibly can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The Euro is a crap model right now as far as I am concerned for the Mid Atlantic. It has probably given us 50 inches of snow this year already and we have received one. its become Dr Yes and then Dr Wrong. The GFS which use to give us snowstorms left and right has been far more stubborn with showing snow on the model for DC and so far its been pretty much on par. It'll be right eventually. The Euro has an impressive vort over NW WI at 96hr, that vort dives south of southeast to NW NC by 120hr, it then heads off the coast and the rest is history. That's a somewhat unusual track, usually you'd want the vort to enter the US well back over ND if you were hoping for anything other than scattered clouds down here. The 72 - 120hr H5 setup, however, is also pretty unusual...so maybe I guess. The NAM is further NE with the vort, and would likely lead to a track right over us. That won't really work out. The NAM also has the GL height anomalies further east than does the Euro. The GFS looks like a more typical result for this area, but I think it's biggest difference from the Euro, is that it has a boat load of vorticity that's working to consolidate over us and off the east coast, rather than the well defined vort shown on the Euro. Sorry...jumped mess of a post. Trying to pay attention to a meeting...while getting yelled at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'm pretty sure I am going to stay as far away from this as I possibly can We all know that the dream will end after the 12Z Euro run anyway. Wallow in the fantasy for a few hours :-) Or it could be like the Christmas/Boxing Day storm, where the Euro magically held on to its improbable solution just long enough to sucker us in and break our hearts...ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The Euro is without a doubt bull****. If you get suckered in by it, you deserved the crushing disappointment that's coming in 4 hours. The PV dropping to VA/Carolinas, spawning a crushing low that gives us 1" QPF THe second storm is more believable, but with such run to run volatility, I don't trust any models. I'm a bitter mofo after our swipe last week. If the 12z Euro shows the same thing, I'll make Ji an administrator. If the 12z EURO shows the same thing.. then I will dance a jig Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The Euro is without a doubt bull****. If you get suckered in by it, you deserved the crushing disappointment that's coming in 4 hours. The PV dropping to VA/Carolinas, spawning a crushing low that gives us 1" QPF THe second storm is more believable, but with such run to run volatility, I don't trust any models. I'm a bitter mofo after our swipe last week. If the 12z Euro shows the same thing, I'll make Ji an administrator. I completely agree with you on this. Not sure why the Euro has been over phasing everything this year. Something they need to look at with that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 JI 's not a black ops administrator already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 JI 's not a black ops administrator already? He's cancelled, uncancelled, then recancelled his subscription Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 all I can say is, even if the Euro is wrong, its a he!! of a lot more interesting around here when it comes up with runs like 0Z vs. yesterday's 12Z I do think the storm at 180 hrs+ is legit for our area and is definitely worth watching, even in that time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 about the FRI/SAT system, anyone take a look at the 12Z NAM sure does "look" like the ridge in Canada is getting ready to press the Canadian vortex south if you loop it http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/index_500_l_loop.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 things are not as bleak as they could be so that's a positive. there's no chance we'er getting 1-2" qpf from a miller b in a nina but it's nice to look at. hopefully we'll get some snow to go with all the crappy cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 things are not as bleak as they could be so that's a positive. there's no chance we'er getting 1-2" qpf from a miller b in a nina but it's nice to look at. hopefully we'll get some snow to go with all the crappy cold. A lil snow, like an inch, would be nice to see at the very least... or should I say very most? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I think we have a good shot at snow showers, some of which could be pretty intense as that pv drops in this weekend. I'm much more interested in the storm next week though, although there is a decent chance it slides off to the south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'm with MadCheese. This year the Euro has been digging systems too far south or the dc area would have had 3 major snowstorms this year already. It would take perfect phasing for the euro to be right. I'm not discounting the chances of a storm but think the euro is wrong in how far south it digs the 500 energy and therefore how far south it forms and bombs out the low. However, I am getting increasingly optimistic that we'll see something around the middle of the month. 60% of the D+11 analogs now show dates of storms that produced 1 inch or more within the 5 day window of the centered mean (jan 14). That's an usually high percentage. The limo average is about 21 percent of the years produce a one inch snowfall between Jan 12-jan 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 about the FRI/SAT system, anyone take a look at the 12Z NAM sure does "look" like the ridge in Canada is getting ready to press the Canadian vortex south if you loop it http://www.nco.ncep....00_l_loop.shtml ender already said no...it would track just north of us and screw us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 ender already said no...it would track just north of us and screw us what does he know? he was at a meeting getting yelled at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'm pretty sure I am going to stay as far away from this as I possibly can Good idea, soggylee. Seriously. In 120 hours, it'll be partly cloudy with a slight breeze. High around 37. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Good idea, soggylee. Seriously. In 120 hours, it'll be partly cloudy with a slight breeze. High around 37. It will be our usual. Windy and in the mid 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 True, but it was 50 miles away from being right, and quite frankly the Euro had the right general idea for that strom long before the other models. While it definitely sucked for those of us in Central MD/NOVA, you have to tip your hat to the Euro for that storm - it was bringing that storm up the coast run after run while the GFS and others were still kicking it way out to sea. If it had kept the idea, I would give it great credit. But it completely punted to the GFS out-to-sea idea for 2.5 days AFTER that consistency before the GFS brought back the storm to the west. At best you can give the Euro a C grade for that storm. I'd give the GFS about the same if I was grading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 about the FRI/SAT system, anyone take a look at the 12Z NAM sure does "look" like the ridge in Canada is getting ready to press the Canadian vortex south if you loop it http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/index_500_l_loop.shtml Yeah, Ender already pissed on that one bud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yeah, Ender already pissed on that one bud. Boy you have been in a great mood the last couple weeks . So sorry to hear about your grandmother , may you only have happy times in your family from now on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 To my weenie eyes, the changes on the GFS at 90 hours look somewhat promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 To my weenie eyes, the changes on the GFS at 90 hours look somewhat promising. Definitely digging more, looks like a period of light snow for MA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 nice period of flurries per the GFS as it digs deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Well, that was unexpected from the GFS...it did pop a low off of NC, but nothing even close to the Euro...some flurries to brighten the day I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.