MDstorm Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Possible event on tap for Jan 7-9 period. HPC from this AM: MID LEVEL BLOCKING AND A LARGE STRONG POSITIVE HT ANOMALY RETURNS TO NRN CANADA WITH A DEEP VORTEX LOCKING IN OVER ONTARIO AS PER 8-10 DAY ECMWF. STRONG SRN STREAM MID LEVEL TROF WILL SWING THRU SRN TX INDUCING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST IN A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT AND BRING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLC SEABOARD OVER THE NEXT WEEKEND. LONGER RANGE CMC AND ECMWF SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO Considering the rollercoaster with the last event, please see your physician for a heart check-up before proceeding on this journey. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 gfs shows zip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 30, 2010 Author Share Posted December 30, 2010 gfs shows zip So. Remember that the GFS is pretty bad with the southern stream this far out. I'd be looking more at the Euro and GGEM over the next few days. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 I've been out of it all week..was in SC attending my grandma's funeral....I keep hearing all this talk of an event, and then I check the GFS and nothing. I guess the GGEM and Euro have something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Gee this all sounds so familiar. HM says it goes OTS and only hits SNE anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 30, 2010 Author Share Posted December 30, 2010 I've been out of it all week..was in SC attending my grandma's funeral....I keep hearing all this talk of an event, and then I check the GFS and nothing. I guess the GGEM and Euro have something? Sorry to hear about your grandma. Both GGEM and Euro have at least the potential set-up for something next weekend. Of course we all know how potential can lead to squat. Anyway, it's something to at least keep on the back burner for the next few days. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 I've been out of it all week..was in SC attending my grandma's funeral....I keep hearing all this talk of an event, and then I check the GFS and nothing. I guess the GGEM and Euro have something? Buy a pair of big boy pants Randy...it's going to be one of THOSE winters brother Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 30, 2010 Author Share Posted December 30, 2010 Gee this all sounds so familiar. HM says it goes OTS and only hits SNE anyways. You are wrong regarding HM. The OTS possibility HM referred to in his post was the Jan 14-17 period (not the Jan 7-9 period). MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Buy a pair of big boy pants Randy...it's going to be one of THOSE winters brother Hey, I'm already resigned to the fact that this winter won't be ours. Nickle and dime to 18 inches. Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 wake me up 12 hrs before it is supposed to start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Hey, I'm already resigned to the fact that this winter won't be ours. Nickle and dime to 18 inches. Maybe. I would take that in a heart beat....my fear is we see one or two more of what just happened and even if we end up with 18" that would be real tough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Buy a pair of big boy pants Randy...it's going to be one of THOSE winters brother if you dont think we can get screwed again just like we got screwed last week...think again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 wake me up 12 hrs before it is supposed to start 12 hours before the last one started...you were in the 6-10 inch per NWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 12 hours before the last one started...you were in the 6-10 inch per NWS we only need 100 more snows like happened to get to last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 if you dont think we can get screwed again just like we got screwed last week...think again Read the post above yours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Read the post above yours lol...our negativity is on the same page. 18 inches would be a miracle considering we barely have 1 inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tplbge Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Winter 2010-2011, the year of the last second East trend. lol...our negativity is on the same page. 18 inches would be a miracle considering we barely have 1 inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Winter 2010-2011, the year of the last second East trend. we will probably get one 4 inch event. Even 2001-02 gave us that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 BWI has 1.5" for the season so far.. 18" seems a really long way off. 12-15" seems more likely at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAB1 Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 12z 12/30 euro is officially on board for this at day 9 with a low around Wilmington NC that looks to be running due E or maybe ENE off the coast. Certainly looks cold enough for you guys up there if the moisture can make it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 A REQUEST: Can we keep the "the storm is at X," "the QPF is 0.1" more this run," "how much does the Euro give MBY," etc. posts out of the picture until we're within the 84 hour window? It has been and will always be pointless banter. This far out, we need to be looking at the upper-levels, possible model inaccuracies and probable outcomes of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 The 12z euro run was much faster ejecting the energy in the sws compared to its 0z run... and slower in the northern stream energy. This resulted in a different outcome than the 0z run of the euro. The 0z euro run had a low pressure forming in the gulf with energy diving in from the northern branch .. it look extremely close to the storm we just had.. With a short wave going across the gulf states and a shortwave diving down out of Canada. The 12z has the southern short wave eject out much faster this run and further north in the south. The energy coming out of the north does not start coming down until the shortwave in the southern branch has already spawned the low along the south east coast. Result is the low racing out to sea with the northern branch energy trying to pop a secondary low off the coast a day later around New Jersey. At least it has some baggy isobars around that location at hour 240.. :x Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 The 06z GFS, Euro, and GGEM all had some type of low forming. Definitely something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 0Z Euro tonight has a full phase and another HECS next weekend..... Looks sub 980 going up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 0Z Euro tonight has a full phase and another HECS next weekend..... Looks sub 980 going up the coast. How's RIC looking this run.....just for ****s and giggles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 0Z Euro tonight has a full phase and another HECS next weekend..... Looks sub 980 going up the coast. 1) It's sub-968 2) It's not going up the coast in the model... cuts through the Southeast and doesn't make it up to PHL/NYC/SNE. How's RIC looking this run.....just for ****s and giggles. Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Well it was a nice run for the areas that just got hit and maybe slightly further north for those in Va... But overall the run did not get much beyond the Maryland/Pa boarder. But details at this point. With models still just painting the general favorable pattern for this time period in question for a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Looking at the 00Z GFS NAO from Allens site wouldn't this argue for 2 events on the east coast. One around the 7th and 8th and the other 3 or 4 days later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 talk about a negative NAO setting the stage you have to go to norther FL to get the same warmth as there is in Greenland this morning http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=na&inv=0&t=cur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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