Quasievil Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 man i had to look at the 0z euro... lol. super bomb again...976 just off nc to 962 well east of delmarva. if va beach gets another 1'+ and i get nothing i will never post again. I have to agree with your sentiments here. Would be absolutely ridiculous. I still can't get over that snow anus map from a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 soggy>sounds like we have a lot of misses to track<soggy You sure know how to take a hurtyhurt and run with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 You sure know how to take a hurtyhurt and run with it I'm trying to be funny....I guess I failed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I'm trying to be funny....I guess I failed. the usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Looks legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 man i had to look at the 0z euro... lol. super bomb again...976 just off nc to 962 well east of delmarva. if va beach gets another 1'+ and i get nothing i will never post again. another one for Ocean City, the snow capital of MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 i cant believe we're really talking about a day, what 8?, threat.. yeah this is a wx board so we should but does anyone believe it at all? It's the only thing on the table worth discussing for this area. What would you prefer we discuss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 euro has a secs+ for next fri now... great track for us overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 988 off nc at 156, 976 off delmarva at 162 972 moving perhaps a hair north of east at 168 nearing 70w .5+ for most of dc area... leesburg on fringe of that. 1"+ east of the bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 988 off nc at 156, 976 off delmarva at 162 972 moving perhaps a hair north of east at 168 nearing 70w .5+ for most of dc area... leesburg on fringe of that. 1"+ east of the bay qof from this dc .75-.85 balt .85 nyc .7-.75 phl 1 centreal md 0.50" DC 0.60" RIC 0.50" ALL OF DEL 1"+ NYC 0.50" ORF NEAR 1" philly near 1" central nj south all 1"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 details unimportant.. my description was good enough. the storm is like 24-36+ hours earlier... good that it's there but not amazing continuity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 details unimportant.. my description was good enough. the storm is like 24-36+ hours earlier... good that it's there but not amazing continuity. Indeed true. But each hundredth of QPF counts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Indeed true. But each hundredth of QPF counts you can delete your sig now .. so close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 988 off nc at 156, 976 off delmarva at 162 972 moving perhaps a hair north of east at 168 nearing 70w .5+ for most of dc area... leesburg on fringe of that. 1"+ east of the bay I think I'd rather see it like this this far out. Looks like we have something else to get screwed on...errr.. track now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Nao values for the 12Z Euro. Would say they show an event day 6 through 8. 2010123012z ECMWF RUN NAO Values NAO value for forecast hour 000: -397.618866 NAO value for forecast hour 024: -370.204193 NAO value for forecast hour 048: -354.013947 NAO value for forecast hour 072: -375.784729 NAO value for forecast hour 096: -349.911957 NAO value for forecast hour 120: -417.866241 NAO value for forecast hour 144: -463.840637 NAO value for forecast hour 168: -420.923492 NAO value for forecast hour 192: -349.040161 NAO value for forecast hour 216: -353.795532 NAO value for forecast hour 240: -333.022156 NAO value for Day 1-5: -373.556213 NAO value for Day 6-10: -384.12439 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Looks like the euro is the only model showing a miller a type scenario...a good amount of the gfs ensembles and it looks like the ggem is showing a miller b that develops off the coast north of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Euro is handling the energy coming out of the west differently than all other global models at this time. Not sure considering it behaving differently than its normal biases would lead to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Is it too early to make long winded frantic posts after each model run, that start off... "I'm worried" ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I can't wait for the 18Z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I can't wait for the 18Z gfs On Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 On Thursday looking at the surface temps on the Euro, places like PHL and NYC are around +1C during the height even BWI gets as high as +.5C with .66" verbatim, a wet snow along I95 IAD stays below freezing, but has less qpf, .42" DCA gets .52", but only gets up to .4C at surface (a hair cooler than BWI!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 blah...Euro is probably wrong here. Its a sudden shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Looks like the euro is the only model showing a miller a type scenario...a good amount of the gfs ensembles and it looks like the ggem is showing a miller b that develops off the coast north of us Same thing happened with the last storm. Only the Euro was right that it ended up a Miller A track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolineWx Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 AKQ NWS is downplaying the risk due to lack of support right know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 There is a lot of spread in how the models are handling the block right now. At this range I'd lean toward the Euro, and it nailed the blocking and phasing setup with the last storm at this range fairly well. We'll have to wait 2-3 more days to figure out what happens with the block, which will ultimately determine the track and whether it's cold enough here. WIth the last storm the Euro overamplified the storm consistently so I wouldn't pay much attention to the strength of the low pressure, but the track may be somewhat viable if it's handlign the blocking setup better than other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 The 18Z GFS phases the 4 corners s/w with the first northern stream s/w, and it's quickly off the coast. The Euro phases with the second northern stream s/w hence the solution it has. It's like deja vue and depends on how the phase takes place. I wouldn't bet against the Euro day 3-5 range, but we shall see. Edit: by day 8 the GFS brings the PV basically down over us and retrogrades the block back to the NW Territories. Very unlikely, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 GFS looks like its full of **** too. not gonna worry about anything now, but next week looks like a ****show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 We should do a radio show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 We should do a radio show I agree just not about weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I'm anxiously awaiting the 384 panel on the 18z GFS as it should show the 2nd of 2 snow storms for us at the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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