shaggy Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Whats the old saying bout thunder in the winter? I heard a rumble of thunder today so we will see if that has any truth to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 62 degrees! Windows are up!! Great day for sure. Yeah, there was a noticeable difference between ATL and AGS....it was downright cold in Atlanta with that stiff breeze. Augusta felt like a spring day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I think the model performed pretty well last year and I know it did a good job on the Christmas storm. It seems like the JMA is always showing a great snowstorm. Therefore, when it actually does snow, the JMA does great, but when it rains, the JMA is awful. Kind of an all or nothing deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Whats the old saying bout thunder in the winter? I heard a rumble of thunder today so we will see if that has any truth to it. something like when you hear thunder there will be snow in 7 or 10 days not sure which one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I always heard 10 day. But hell, it is always 10 days away. Right folks something like when you hear thunder there will be snow in 7 or 10 days not sure which one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Yeah, there was a noticeable difference between ATL and AGS....it was downright cold in Atlanta with that stiff breeze. Augusta felt like a spring day. It was warm-ish while we were there on NYE. We stayed in Buckhead and I found it odd that I was able to grab a coffee at Starbucks that night around 8 and sit outside comfortably. That was surreal...not because of the weather but because there was not a soul around!! How many folks can say they've done that? LOL Me, coffee, tall buildings, quiet? Best part of the trip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Here comes the first cold front of 2011 through the coastal plain of NC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Just a bit of cross polar flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Just a bit of cross polar flow yes, I love the pattern coming up. It could go just cold and dry, which is what usually happens but this season has been full of storm systems that coincided with the cold because of a couple usually-missing ingredients, and those 2 ingredients are crucial, and are staying put , I think. So what I think will happen is the models will lose systems, bring them back later, and / or focus on the wrong shortwaves when actually a different one holds the key. I sure wouldn't look at the models and ensembles now and just assume pure cold and dry, because the overall pattern matches about 2 great patterns for the Southern US , one of which is my all time favorite to have studied, that Feb/Mar 1960 stretch. I'm not saying that will ever happen but I'm almost positive we're entering (probably already entered) a great weather period that we will look back on with fond memories one day. So don't live and die with each model over the next 2 weeks guys, the pattern supports good things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 something like when you hear thunder there will be snow in 7 or 10 days not sure which one. There is also the one about snow laying around for 5 or 7 days meaning more is on the way....yesterday I rode by a golf course, the temp was in the low 60's, the guys playing had on shorts and short sleeve shorts, there was snow still on the north side of hills and shady spots, and the pond was froze over, it was a very odd thing to see. I also thought if the golfers were smart they would aim for the ponds I bet they get a wicked bounce off the ice......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Friday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Saturday: A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Sunday: A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Here comes the first cold front of 2011 through the coastal plain of NC... Prolly gonna be a while until we see mid 60's again lol.......but thats cool with me Jan and Feb can be cold and snowy, as long as March is a lion and I get some chaseable storms..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 It case ya'll missed it; go check out the 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks. The lower 48 states are all in the blue for both time ranges. That's definitely the first time I have ever seen that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 If we escape where this pattern is headed without snow and/or ice opportunities it will be just pure bad luck IMO. It's about as good as it can look for lovers of winter weather and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 yes, I love the pattern coming up. It could go just cold and dry, which is what usually happens but this season has been full of storm systems that coincided with the cold because of a couple usually-missing ingredients, and those 2 ingredients are crucial, and are staying put , I think. So what I think will happen is the models will lose systems, bring them back later, and / or focus on the wrong shortwaves when actually a different one holds the key. I sure wouldn't look at the models and ensembles now and just assume pure cold and dry, because the overall pattern matches about 2 great patterns for the Southern US , one of which is my all time favorite to have studied, that Feb/Mar 1960 stretch. I'm not saying that will ever happen but I'm almost positive we're entering (probably already entered) a great weather period that we will look back on with fond memories one day. So don't live and die with each model over the next 2 weeks guys, the pattern supports good things. As always, much thanks Robert! Would you mind posting a link or two for that great weather pattern of 1960? Remember me mentioning this a year or so ago? I mention this from time to time that my Mother-in-Law always brags about that great winter, when once a week, they would have snowfall here in the CLT area. She says that was her best winter ever. I put two and two together and this is the pattern she was talking about. Very interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Prolly gonna be a while until we see mid 60's again lol.......but thats cool with me Jan and Feb can be cold and snowy, as long as March is a lion and I get some chaseable storms..... Cold front is through here, accompanied by a stiff NW wind at 15-20 mph with the passing and a temp drop from 66 to 58F in the last 30 minutes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 My temp is headed for the basement as well...51 now/63 two hours ago. I have mixed emotions about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Here is a pretty cool link I found for the Feb-March 1960 pattern: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/localdat/cases/2010/Review_Feb-Mar_1960.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Here is a pretty cool link I found for the Feb-March 1960 pattern: http://www.erh.noaa....eb-Mar_1960.pdf Great reading there, Rankin! I've heard about that year...quite often. It caused my dad to buy a truck and my mom to hate winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Cold front is through here, accompanied by a stiff NW wind at 15-20 mph with the passing and a temp drop from 66 to 58F in the last 30 minutes... Weve given January a 2 day spot. Probably sitting at +10 neighborhood departure from normal. Lets see how impressive this cold can get this month and if we can finish up in the minus column with regards to departure from normal. If we end up normal or slightly below the next 2 months and score another decent size storm, then this winter will go down as one of the greatest start to finish Ive ever had. I thought last year would be tough to duplicate with all the threats (chasess)every 3-5 days. But in the face of beleiving we where doomed this winter, I'm loving how things have turned out. I took the weekend off from model watching, went down to RWI, got some of the best bbarbecue on the planet. Now all I need is Duke to repeat and about 16 more inches of snow this winter and I'll be set! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowflake29684 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I am sorry the 18z GFS now our storm is back I know I am a weenie at this but I just can't see a storm that strong getting supressed I really don't think it will be out to sea could a met or someone Chime in on there opinion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Cold air is sliding down the Mnts. in WNC. I have fallen about 2° every hour since 1:00 PM. Currently sitting at 34.3° with wind @ 10-15 MPH. After several days and nights in the 50s it feels cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I am sorry the 18z GFS now our storm is back I know I am a weenie at this but I just can't see a storm that strong getting supressed I really don't think it will be out to sea could a met or someone Chime in on there opinion? Not a met....but took a look....not so sure about the weekend storm, but after that...WOW! looks like numerous potential systems....surely we won't be empty handed....just looks too good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I am sorry the 18z GFS now our storm is back I know I am a weenie at this but I just can't see a storm that strong getting supressed I really don't think it will be out to sea could a met or someone Chime in on there opinion? Its not the strength of the southern storm. Its what the gfs does with the vortex over NE and eastern Canada. It deepens it so much that it just crushes anything that comes out of the southwest. I'm sure its over done on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I am sorry the 18z GFS now our storm is back I know I am a weenie at this but I just can't see a storm that strong getting supressed I really don't think it will be out to sea could a met or someone Chime in on there opinion? Umm...it still has that storm for next week sliding down into Cuba then the following Friday looks like maybe a strong clipper (which almost never works). It doesn't take much for the PV to get too strong and just suppress our storms into nowheresville no matter how strong they look, they will just get stronger as they head to Cuba instead of us. I also think that something has to pop in this sort of pattern but since we lived it last year it's hard to get overly excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Its not the strength of the southern storm. Its what the gfs does with the vortex over NE and eastern Canada. It deepens it so much that it just crushes anything that comes out of the southwest. I'm sure its over done on the gfs. Yep got in before me. I'm with Robert though I have a feeling the LR GFS and Euro aren't quite handling everything correctly (he has science I just have a weenie feeling). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 As always, much thanks Robert! Would you mind posting a link or two for that great weather pattern of 1960? Remember me mentioning this a year or so ago? I mention this from time to time that my Mother-in-Law always brags about that great winter, when once a week, they would have snowfall here in the CLT area. She says that was her best winter ever. I put two and two together and this is the pattern she was talking about. Very interesting... This Christmas I asked my granddad what was the most snow he ever experienced here. He said in March 1960 they had 3 heavy snows on 3 consecutive Wednesdays, and it also snowed some of the days in between. He described it as if the roads were impassible throughout that whole time until around Easter. This was in Walhalla,SC. I sure hope we all get to experience something like that in our lifetimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 This Christmas I asked my granddad what was the most snow he ever experienced here. He said in March 1960 they had 3 heavy snows on 3 consecutive Wednesdays, and it also snowed some of the days in between. He described it as if the roads were impassible throughout that whole time until around Easter. This was in Walhalla,SC. I sure hope we all get to experience something like that in our lifetimes. I also remember an old timer telling me about that. Here is a good read for everyone: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/localdat/cases/2010/Review_Feb-Mar_1960.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Well how are we supposed to get storms out of this when the cold suppresses everything? Sorry if I'm not reading something right; just curious. There seems to be alot of excitement about the potential pattern for cold but how does this translate into snow potential? The two don't seem to mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Well how are we supposed to get storms out of this when the cold suppresses everything? Sorry if I'm not reading something right; just curious. There seems to be alot of excitement about the potential pattern for cold but how does this translate into snow potential? The two don't seem to mix. This far out with the gfs just look for patterns. Is there some precip anywhere near by? Is the amazing blocking we've seen still there? Super high pressure anywhere up north of us? Ridging out west? Trough bringing down the cold over us? If these things are on the maps out there in la la land then salt with patience, stir in some time and timing, let simmer. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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