November 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[WxUSAF]

Will the giga-Nino rainy pattern ever arrive!?!?!!!?

[yoda]

12z Euro through next weekend pretty dry across the region... maybe a little rain out to i81 corridor... but it looks like less than half an inch... rain finally becomes more plentiful and widespread by Day 9 on

[frd]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

12z Euro through next weekend pretty dry across the region... maybe a little rain out to i81 corridor... but it looks like less than half an inch... rain finally becomes more plentiful and widespread by Day 9 on

Seems the pattern has been to push rain further and further out. Meanwhile mid-70s arrive again this week. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

12z Euro through next weekend pretty dry across the region... maybe a little rain out to i81 corridor... but it looks like less than half an inch... rain finally becomes more plentiful and widespread by Day 9 on

 

43 minutes ago, frd said:

Seems the pattern has been to push rain further and further out. Meanwhile mid-70s arrive again this week. 

Fluke. (not the temps though)

[AnEndlessMaze]

Something isn’t right here, we’re gonna find out ENSO is like a big horseshoe and giga Ninos behave like a strong La Nina. 

[Weather Will]

WB 21Z NBM precip. totals for late week.

[dailylurker]

Gfs looks much better this morning. It's not just white hot over Canada like it was showing all weekend. 

[SnowenOutThere]

@psuhoffman Take a look at the latest CFS run on pivotal.

[Elim72]

RIP NAM today is the last day. No more getting NAMD with snow before a big storm. 

 

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

8 minutes ago, Elim72 said:

RIP NAM today is the last day. No more getting NAMD with snow before a big storm. 

The future is bleak for America.

[wxmeddler]

8 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The future is bleak for America.

The last run will be 06 UTC tonight. 

OMD has said that they have not done studies on the RRFS / REFS sensitivity to CAD wedges, an area that the NAM excels in. Just to put the icing on top, OMD has pulled the freezing rain and sleet accumulation products from the feed because it sucked so bad.
https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2026/scn26-048_Updated_RRFS_and_REFS_Implementation.aaf.pdf

NEW changes as of Oct 15, 2026
Updated to reflect adjustments to post-processing and product
availability within RRFS and REFS, primarily replacing a model-generated,
microphysics-based instantaneous precipitation type product with a
diagnosed thermodynamic-based precipitation type calculation, and also
removing accumulations of freezing rain and frozen rain (sleet) as output
products. These changes are in response to an over-forecasting of
freezing rain and under-forecasting of sleet within RRFS/REFS.

 

[dailylurker]

1 hour ago, Elim72 said:

RIP NAM today is the last day. No more getting NAMD with snow before a big storm. 

 

 

 

That sucks. The NAM was like the fun guy that always shows up to the party already drunk and brings weed.

[psuhoffman]

5 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

@psuhoffman Take a look at the latest CFS run on pivotal.

Unfortunately we are likely to see a LOT of that the next few months... hopefully one or two luck into some cold...that's the plan.  

[Maestrobjwa]

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Unfortunately we are likely to see a LOT of that the next few months... hopefully one or two luck into some cold...that's the plan.  

Can't win in any state no more. I give up, lol Get the Storms tracks in nino, warm, and this niño is now TOO strong. I mean I would say we need a moderate, but that didn't work either (although...I can't remember getting a noreaster in 23-24. What happened that year with the precip?) Enough cold air in ninas, can't get the storm tracks and watch Jersey north cash in on blizzards. Nina coming next year or year after. This is where we are, smh Hope we luck into one

[bncho]

5 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

@psuhoffman Take a look at the latest CFS run on pivotal.

I feel like this will be the story of the winter. Even though it's the CFS at hour 480 and even though it's still in November I'm worried we're gonna see a lot of those at D8-10 with a little hope only to get rug pulled at D5-6

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

I feel like this will be the story of the winter. Even though it's the CFS at hour 480 and even though it's still in November I'm worried we're gonna see a lot of those at D8-10 with a little hope only to get rug pulled at D5-6

Feels like this time around, temperatures would be more rug pulls than precip...

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Unfortunately we are likely to see a LOT of that the next few months... hopefully one or two luck into some cold...that's the plan.  

I'd take that storm verbatim for 11/22.  On 1/22....yeah that would suck.   

[SnowenOutThere]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

I feel like this will be the story of the winter. Even though it's the CFS at hour 480 and even though it's still in November I'm worried we're gonna see a lot of those at D8-10 with a little hope only to get rug pulled at D5-6

36 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Feels like this time around, temperatures would be more rug pulls than precip...

I don't think we'd really see a ton of temperature rug pulls. Instead, our "shit the blinds" pattern will be one where we watch storms take a perfect track but have no cold air on the continent. The pattern means it won't be a particular surprise when they fail. Just look at that storm as an example. Where would the cold air come from? There's not even a 540 height line near the precipitation. Now, if you get a shot of cold air from a favorable PNA phase then you can get your classic rug pulls (storm track, precipitation, north trend, etc). 

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Unfortunately we are likely to see a LOT of that the next few months... hopefully one or two luck into some cold...that's the plan.  

Didn't post the temperature map but it has most of western VA at 35 degrees and we've experienced 2 degrees fahrenheit of warming. Wonder if it would've been a snowstorm in the before times. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

29 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Just look at that storm as an example. Where would the cold air come from?

That won’t stop the weenies from saying it’ll make its own cold air.

[IronTy]

29 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

That won’t stop the weenies from saying it’ll make its own cold air.

The big ones always do...

[Terpeast]

3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Can't win in any state no more. I give up, lol Get the Storms tracks in nino, warm, and this niño is now TOO strong. I mean I would say we need a moderate, but that didn't work either (although...I can't remember getting a noreaster in 23-24. What happened that year with the precip?) Enough cold air in ninas, can't get the storm tracks and watch Jersey north cash in on blizzards. Nina coming next year or year after. This is where we are, smh Hope we luck into one

In 23-24, we were getting rain from every STJ system. Just for a week or so, we got cold air and it snowed from two northern stream systems that trended south last minute. Ironically, the STJ had shut off for that week.

Part of me thinks that in the not so distant future we’d be rooting for La Ninas since we can still get cold air in those winters. Just hope for a typically nina suppressed storm track to shift NW for major I-95 snows, since jet streams and storm tracks have been shifting north across the board. Those two misses last year? Get them both to hit, and we may have given 1995-96 a run for its money. 

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

In 23-24, we were getting rain from every STJ system. Just for a week or so, we got cold air and it snowed from two northern stream systems that trended south last minute. Ironically, the STJ had shut off for that week.

Part of me thinks that in the not so distant future we’d be rooting for La Ninas since we can still get cold air in those winters. Just hope for a typically nina suppressed storm track to shift NW for major I-95 snows, since jet streams and storm tracks have been shifting north across the board. Those two misses last year? Get them both to hit, and we may have given 1995-96 a run for its money. 

Now, perhaps you can help me here: Aren't the odds of those kind of storms hitting in a nina already low given the most common storm track in a nina? (Especially the second one). Why is the conversation about these misses seem to be around the idea that it was just bad luck that they missed as opposed to this is typical, and it's very difficult to get a different track than that in a nina enso state? Am I missing something?

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now, perhaps you can help me here: Aren't the odds of those kind of storms hitting in a nina already low given the most common storm track in a nina? (Especially the second one). Why is the conversation about these misses seem to be around the idea that it was just bad luck that they missed as opposed to this is typical, and it's very difficult to get a different track than that in a nina enso state? Am I missing something?

Here ya go- I am lazy tonight so here is what AI says(not perfect, but captures the general idea), and you and I both know this is 'typical' of la Nina winter storms in our region:

A Northward-Displaced Jet Stream

During a La Niña winter, the Pacific jet stream shifts much farther north across North America. [1, 2]

• The Missing Southern Track: Unlike El Niño, which features a strong, moisture-rich southern jet stream tracking across the Gulf of Mexico and directly up the East Coast, La Niña suppresses this southern branch. [1, 2, 3]
• The Continental Route: Instead, storms primarily track across the northern tier of the United States or the Ohio Valley. These are often fast-moving continental systems (like Alberta Clippers) that lack deep subtropical moisture while traveling over land. [1, 2]

2. Offshore Cyclogenesis (Later Development)

Because these northern storms travel over dry land, they remain relatively weak and disorganized while passing over inland regions of the Mid-Atlantic. [1]

• The Gulf Stream Spark: It is only when the system’s energy finally moves offshore and encounters the stark temperature contrast of the warm Atlantic waters (the Gulf Stream) that it finds the thermal energy and moisture required to rapidly intensify.
• This delayed strengthening means the low-pressure system matures "later" in its lifecycle, positioning its center well off the coast rather than inland.

3. The "Inland Dry vs. Coastal Wet" Divide

The offshore positioning of the storm center directly dictates who receives precipitation: [1]

• Inland Regions Starve for Moisture: Because the storm intensifies far out at sea, its main moisture field is pulled eastward into the Atlantic. Behind the storm, a brisk northwest flow pulls cold, dry continental air down from Canada, suppressing precipitation and keeping inland regions under dry spells.
   
   
• Coastal Areas Get Clipped: Even though the center of the Nor'easter or coastal storm is far offshore, these systems are massive. The western edge of the rotating storm shield—along with strong onshore winds—can still wrap around and clip the immediate coastline and the I-95 corridor