HokieEnginerd Posted Saturday at 10:39 PM Share Posted Saturday at 10:39 PM I am beginning to think this Nino isn't going to behave like an expected Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Saturday at 10:43 PM Share Posted Saturday at 10:43 PM 1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said: First the niño precip was supposed to kick in during late summer then it was Labor Day then it was the equinox then it was late October, now it’s been can kicked to some indeterminate time in November. A couple head fakes occurred in that interval, the most recent one wrapped up a week ago. When is it going to be our turn for a sustained wet pattern with no rug pulls, the stars shouldn’t have to align for our area to get precip… When is it going to be your turn to make a post that actually adds some value? 8 2 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Saturday at 11:12 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:12 PM 1 hour ago, CAPE said: When is it going to be your turn to make a post that actually adds some value? Okay, We have been in an overarching dry pattern since 2023 with only brief periods of respite regardless of ENSO state. This year in particular there is a deficit throughout the region, with DCA having one of over 6 inches. That's in spite of the precip events over the last couple months which have since ceased. This is why I'm harping on the pattern change being can kicked, while the growing season may be over this is still a vital window to build up the groundwater and refill the reservoirs. Need I remind you that the Baltimore metro water supply has to dip into the Susquehanna for the fact that Loch Raven is too low. Deficits carry over too and if we look at where things stand since 2023 the long term deficit is as high as 20 inches in some spots. We're going to need as much precip as we can get over the next 6 months or we could very well be right back in a widespread drought come Summer, especially if the forecasts of next year being a niña come to pass. The more the niño kicking in gets pushed back the less likely we are to fully turn the corner on the drought. Care to disagree? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Saturday at 11:55 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:55 PM 1 hour ago, HokieEnginerd said: I am beginning to think this Nino isn't going to behave like an expected Nino. It's still a bit early, but if we're at Thanksgiving and still bone dry with zonal flow, then yea something is probably off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Sunday at 01:02 AM Share Posted Sunday at 01:02 AM 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: It's still a bit early, but if we're at Thanksgiving and still bone dry with zonal flow, then yea something is probably off. That raises the question, if this fails to deliver then is this dry stretch since 2023 the new normal? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Sunday at 01:08 AM Share Posted Sunday at 01:08 AM On 10/24/2026 at 9:02 PM, JenkinsJinkies said: That raises the question, if this fails to deliver then is this dry stretch since 2023 the new normal? That's quite possible. The "new normal" could be long stretches of dry with intermittent periods of just deluges of precipitation. Look back to the winter of 2015/2016. It was largely dry in the frozen and liquid precipitation. Our one big event just happened to be a well timed snow storm. If it were off by a week it would've been three inches of rain in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Sunday at 11:52 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:52 PM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnEndlessMaze Posted Monday at 11:41 AM Share Posted Monday at 11:41 AM On 10/24/2026 at 7:55 PM, Eskimo Joe said: It's still a bit early, but if we're at Thanksgiving and still bone dry with zonal flow, then yea something is probably off. If you remove Isaias this feels like Oct. 2000 with the dryness. Maybe we’ll find out Super Duper El Ninos actually behave like a Nina. I’ve been enjoying the beautiful weather though! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted Monday at 05:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:41 PM I haven’t looked at the euro, but the 12z gfs should keep @JenkinsJinkies off the ledge for the afternoon. Of course, if you take it literally, then you’re signing up for potential disappointment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted Monday at 06:16 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:16 PM 33 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I haven’t looked at the euro, but the 12z gfs should keep @JenkinsJinkies off the ledge for the afternoon. Of course, if you take it literally, then you’re signing up for potential disappointment. Ha, came here to post that. You mean we aren't going to get two 2" rainstorms 3 days apart around Nov 5th? The ensembles seem vaguely interested in the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted yesterday at 12:10 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 12:10 AM WB 12Z EPS. Next week looks wet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted yesterday at 11:06 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:06 AM A SSW this early IS unprecedented 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted yesterday at 11:26 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:26 AM 11 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS. Next week looks wet. Of course it does. It's time to pick up leaves! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted yesterday at 02:25 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:25 PM Seeing a lot of tracks like this showing up on the medium-long range models. 12 3 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 13 hours ago, WxUSAF said: A SSW this early IS unprecedented This would be pretty insane to see occur this early. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 10 hours ago, Ephesians2 said: Seeing a lot of tracks like this showing up on the medium-long range models. I have told people that I would expect a wet winter, at minimum, for the region. Snow or no will come down to timing of cold air shots and hopefully some high latitude blocking that can lock in eastern Canadian high pressure. We could easily miss everything and get cold rain, but this season will have one of the better opportunities for precipitation in a long while with the southern jet likely to be very active for months. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago It's starting to look drier next week. The trend is our friend for us business owners that operate outdoors. We're having a strong finish to a fantastic season. I'm looking forward to some rest, peace, and snow on Tug Hill this winter. How about that polar vortex disruption in the forecast? Wow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 1 hour ago, dailylurker said: It's starting to look drier next week. The trend is our friend for us business owners that operate outdoors. We're having a strong finish to a fantastic season. I'm looking forward to some rest, peace, and snow on Tug Hill this winter. How about that polar vortex disruption in the forecast? Wow Going to be funny when it just stays dry all winter too lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Going to be funny when it just stays dry all winter too lol It would be lol. Watch it be dryer and colder than last winter. It seems like it's always the opposite of what humans think will happen. I've been humbled by mother nature so many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 4 hours ago, dailylurker said: It's starting to look drier next week. Out to lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Out to lunch You might as well draft up the "what went wrong" post now so you just have to hit submit next week. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 16 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: I have told people that I would expect a wet winter, at minimum, for the region. Snow or no will come down to timing of cold air shots and hopefully some high latitude blocking that can lock in eastern Canadian high pressure. We could easily miss everything and get cold rain, but this season will have one of the better opportunities for precipitation in a long while with the southern jet likely to be very active for months. Super-Ninos of 1983 and 2016 each gave us a home run. Let's hope for that and not 1998! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, BlizzardNole said: Super-Ninos of 1983 and 2016 each gave us a home run. Let's hope for that and not 1998! I would happily write off December 2026 if I knew it would transition into a solid January and February. Snow with no sun angle concerns is the best snow. March snow is fine, but it's like the last drink at a bar while everyone's cleaning up around you and the bar tender is staring you down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 18 minutes ago Author Share Posted 18 minutes ago WB 12Z EPS teleconnection charts. Not bad. Need to work on the EPO and WPO. Actually, if the PNA verifies, it looks really good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 10 minutes ago Share Posted 10 minutes ago ^that's not terrible at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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