October 2026

[Snowlover11]

Hit with the double whammy this past week

 

cold/flu now a stomach bug of some sort. Yesterday was beautiful sat outside for a bit.

[bluewave]

Right on cue the models are slowing the frontal passage for Friday into Saturday. This has been the theme all year from weekend winter snowstorms to thunderstorms and nor’easters into the fall.

So it looks like we’ll have more measurable rain here early Saturday. Luckily not the all day washout that we just had this past Sunday.

But just enough light morning showers keep the measurable weekend precipitation streak going before we clear out during the day Saturday.

New run

Old run

 

[SnoSki14]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Right on cue the models are slowing the frontal passage for Friday into Saturday. This has been the theme all year from weekend winter snowstorms to thunderstorms and nor’easters into the fall.

So it looks like we’ll have more measurable rain here early Saturday. Luckily not the all day washout that we just had this past Sunday.

But just enough light morning showers keep the measurable weekend precipitation streak going before we clear out during the day Saturday.

New run

Old run

 

That slowdown is what's causing the energy to get left behind and potentially become an ocean storn in the onshore flow environment.  

Don't know what, if any impacts will result from this but another coastal storm wouldn't surprise me. 

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That slowdown is what's causing the energy to get left behind and potentially become an ocean storn in the onshore flow environment.  

Don't know what, if any impacts will result from this but another coastal storm wouldn't surprise me. 

At least another period of extended onshore flow with the big high to the north and developing low somewhere underneath.

 

 

[Juturna]

Euro had a heckuva run with that potential coastal low last night 

[ILoveWinter]

2 hours ago, Snowlover11 said:

Hit with the double whammy this past week

 

cold/flu now a stomach bug of some sort. Yesterday was beautiful sat outside for a bit.

Flu hitting early this year! My daughter had it last week (somehow escaped the rest of us) and I know 2 others who already had it.

Feel better!

[Stormlover74]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Time to watch for a tropical disturbance next week ?

DTs talking about a repeat of "the perfect storm"

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

DTs talking about a repeat of "the perfect storm"

Yeah I saw that. Highly unlikely. Some sort of hybrid warm seclusion coastal, definitely possible. The perfect storm, which started as a typical cold core nor’easter absorbed hurricane Grace. That’s never happened before (recorded) or since.


.

[MarcmmKU]

Tomorrow has got to be the last muggy day of the season right? I suspect dew point records to be smashed tomorrow.

[Stormlover74]

47 minutes ago, MarcmmKU said:

Tomorrow has got to be the last muggy day of the season right? I suspect dew point records to be smashed tomorrow.

I'm never confident we can say it's the last of anything. I mean yeah by Thanksgiving but can still get 70s and high dewpoints for a while

[SACRUS]

64 / 47 partly cloudy.  Cooler today mid 60s in warmest spots we jump back up to the 70s tomororw (mid 70s max) ahead of the 48 cill this weekend with lowest temps since April 30s and perhaps some 20s inland.  ig ridge goes north and west with persistent onshgore flow and cut off low off shore, still overall warmer for the period 10/19 and beyond and the days when flow comes around should see more 70s warmer. 

 

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 86 (1956)
NYC: 84 (1956)
LGA: 83 (2021)
JFK: 82 (1975)


Lows:

EWR: 32 (1937)
NYC: 32 (1876)
LGA: 39 (2009)
JFK: 37 (1999)

Historical:

1608: Evangelista Torricelli, the Italian physicist and mathematician who invented the barometer was born on this date. In 1644, Evangelista Torricelli, built the first barometer with mercury. The aneroid barometer was made first in 1843, the French scientist Lucien Vidie invented the aneroid barometer. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1876: Snow fell on the backside of a coastal storm from Virginia to New England. New York City, NY had its earliest 32° temperature and a half inch of snow. Fall River, MA reported 3.5 inches of snow. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1880: This was the beginning of what was called the  Mid West "Snow Winter of 1880-81". People were trapped in their homes and by the end of the winter it was reported snow was around 11 feet deep.

1880 - A violent early season blizzard raked Minnesota and the Dakotas. Winds gusted to 70 mph at Yankton SD, and snow drifts 10 to 15 feet high were reported in northwest Iowa and southeast South Dakota. Saint Paul MN reported a barometric pressure of 28.65 inches on the 16th. Railroads were blocked by drifts of snow which remained throughout the severe winter to follow. Gales did extensive damage to ship on the Great Lakes. (15th-16th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1947: People question attempts to weaken a hurricane by seeding it with dry ice after it made an unexpected turn off the coast making landfall near Savannah, GA with winds of 100 mph. One person was killed. Damage totaled $3 million dollars. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)
 

1954 - Hurricane Hazel struck the Carolina coastline. The hurricane demolished every pier along a 170 mile stretch from Myrtle Beach SC to Cedar Island NC, and obliterated entire lines of beach homes. Hurricane Hazel also destroyed 1500 homes as it moved inland with seventeen foot tides. Winds between Myrtle Beach SC and Cape Fear NC gusted to 150 mph. Hurricane Hazel caused 163 million dollars damage, and claimed the lives of 98 persons. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1954: By 11 pm on the 15th, Hurricane Hazel had reached and crossed the waters of Lake Ontario, still sporting sustained winds as high as 60 mph. Hazel took direct aim at the heart of Toronto as it roared past at 49 mph. Toronto saw heavy rainfall before Hurricane Hazel on the 14th. The previous storm, in combination with the hurricane, resulted in significant flooding. 

1966 - Iowa experienced its worst late season tornado of record. In just one minute a twister tore through the town of Belmond leveling 75 percent of the businesses, and 100 homes, causing more than eleven million dollars damage. (The Weather Channel)

1984: The Monday Night Football game in Denver, Colorado, was played in a raging blizzard. 15 inches of snow fell with up to 34 inches reported in the nearby mountains. The Air Force Academy canceled classes for the first time in its' recorded history. 

1987 - Unseasonably cold weather continued in the eastern U.S., with thirteen cities reporting record low temperatures for the date. The low of 34 degrees at Montgomery AL was their coldest reading of record for so early in the season. Lows of 32 degrees at Harrisburg PA and 34 degrees at Parkersburg WV marked their third straight morning of record cold. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - The cold high pressure system responsible for the record low temperatures in the eastern U.S. began to move out to sea, giving way to a trend toward "Indian Summer". Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced golf ball size hail at Altamont KS and hail two inches in diameter at Yates City IL. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Hurricane Jerry made landfall at Galveston, TX, at 6 30 PM (CDT). Winds at the Galveston Airport reached 75 mph, with gusts to 100 mph. Tides along the island were six to eight feet, and rainfall totals ranged up to slightly more than six inches north of Beaumont. Three persons were killed when their vehicle was blown off the Galveston seawall into the pounding surf. Total damage along the Upper Texas Coast was estimated at fifteen million dollars. Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Lower Michigan during the late morning. Two persons were injured when a tree fell on their camper at the Traverse City State park. While strong northerly winds ushered much colder air into the central U.S., unseasonably warm weather continued in the south central and eastern U.S. The afternoon high of 82 degrees at Bluefield WV was a record for October. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2005: On this date through the 17th, the summit of Mt. Washington, NH reported 34 inches of snow. The 24-hour record for the most snowfall occurred when 25.5 inches fell in 24 hours. (Ref. Wilson Weather History) (Ref. WxDoctor)

[winterwx21]

Worried about a potential frost/freeze Sunday morning here. That would be slightly early as we usually get to very late October or sometimes even early November here. My peppers and pole lima beans are still producing heavily and will keep going until frost, so I'm hoping we avoid it Sunday morning. After this threat it's going to warm up and it will be quite awhile before we have another frost threat, so it might be worth it to cover the plants if it appears that the frost is gonna happen Sunday morning. 

[Stormlover74]

Slight risk just to the west for tomorrow

[SnoSki14]

Looks very mild overall for the entire US with the weekend chill sort of a blip in the warm pattern. The onshore flow and coastal low could blunt highs but should still be plenty warm. 

[Brian5671]

24 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks very mild overall for the entire US with the weekend chill sort of a blip in the warm pattern. The onshore flow and coastal low could blunt highs but should still be plenty warm. 

Seems like the early theme is in and out cold.    The cold spell a week or so ago was basically one day

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Slight risk just to the west for tomorrow

Big change with the afternoon update

[Stormlover74]

..Mid-Atlantic into southern New England...

As the upper trough amplifies and the surface cyclone deepens over the northern Appalachians, low-level convergence along the attendant surface trough will increase into the morning hours, resulting in the development of low-topped convection that will quickly evolve into a squall line across western NY/PA. The northward advection of mid 60s F surface dewpoints beneath 6 C/km mid-level lapse rates will result in 500 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis ahead of the line, with locally higher values approaching 1000 J/kg in spots.

Some guidance members suggest that surface airmass recovery may be brief ahead of the squall line given the potential for widespread antecedent cloud cover. Still, strong tropospheric wind fields will accompany the squall line, with forecast soundings showing 50+ kt flow as low as 800-700 mb, with 35-40 kt flow contained within the boundary layer, just above the surface.  

Regardless of the degree of destabilization that precedes the squall line, downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft within the squall line should support strong to occasionally severe surface gusts, mostly in the 35-55 kt range. Scattered instances of tree/wire damage are expected, starting from around western PA during the late morning hours, to the East Coast around early evening.

[JerseyWx]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks very mild overall for the entire US with the weekend chill sort of a blip in the warm pattern. The onshore flow and coastal low could blunt highs but should still be plenty warm. 

Looks perfectly seasonable to me for the metro.  Mid to upper 60's most days (maybe some 70's in there) with lows in the 40's.  Can't get much better for October.

[Stormlover74]

[Keith Central PA]

4 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Seems like the early theme is in and out cold.    The cold spell a week or so ago was basically one day

Get used to it this winter unfortunately 

[Stormlover74]

[weathermedic]

OKX AFD afternoon package:

Showers and thunderstorm move through late tonight into early Friday
morning in association with an approaching warm front. Thereafter,
the region will be warm sectored with an approaching cold front to
the west, deepening low pressure over northern New
England/southeastern Canada, and a positively tilted upper level
trough approaching from the west. After the passage of the warm
front and ahead of the approaching cold front, winds shift to
the SW and increase somewhat during the afternoon, bringing a
surge of low level moisture, with dew points rising well into
the 60s. Low level convergence along the cold front will allow
for the development of low topped showers and thunderstorms that
approach the western portion of the forecast area as a well
defined squall line (as per most meso scale models) by late
afternoon and early evening hours (anywhere from 5 pm to 7 pm,
give or take an hour). With ample moisture in place, increasing
low level convergence, and MLCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range,
strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly
for western portions of the area (NE NJ and Lower Hudson
Valley). As the line approaches the coast, weakening is
expected. However, even in these locations an isolated strong to
severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. The Storm Prediction
Center has placed much of the forecast area in a slight risk for
severe thunderstorms.

The cold front and weakening squall line should push offshore
between 9 pm and 11 pm, but post frontal rain looks to develop
thereafter, keeping the chance for showers in the forecast for Long
Island and southern CT through most of Friday night, with lesser
chances as you head N and W.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will then turn briefly milder with temperatures topping out in the lower to perhaps middle 70s ahead of another cold front. The cold front could bring showers and thundershowers. A few thundershowers could be strong to severe.

Afterward, a piece of the air mass that set a record low temperatures in parts of Canada last weekend will move into the region for the weekend. The arrival of this air mass could trigger a few showers on Friday or Friday night. As a result, the weekend could see the coldest temperatures so far this season. Highs in New York City will struggle to reach 50° on Saturday and rise only to the lower and middle 50s on Sunday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.03°C. ENSO Region 3.4 has set a new all-time record. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. 

The SOI was -17.47 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.229 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.4° (0.5° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.