TSSN+ Posted Saturday at 07:55 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:55 PM Welp probably should give models a few more runs to figure it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Saturday at 08:31 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:31 PM 3 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Icon and GGEM getting the new Europe-Canada partnership started off right How about Greenland? Maybe a blocking pattern can be negotiated along with the US protection and military presence that has already existed for decades. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Sunday at 02:59 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:59 AM Is there any free site that has the Euro AI? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted Sunday at 03:28 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:28 AM 29 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Is there any free site that has the Euro AI? https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026092002&fh=14&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc= 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted Sunday at 04:48 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:48 AM There is a possibility that a tropical system near Baja California might develop into a Cat 3 Hurricane. I want a high end Cat 5, then all the moisture hits Texas. I crave for unprecedented moisture feeds from off the deep tropical Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico, plus my precious Caribbean Connection! I want catastrophic amounts of rain! I have an Ark. I'll be taking real time water level readings. I'd like to see at least 45 feet of water over the 1626/967 Intersection! BRING IT ON, SUPER NINO! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted Sunday at 04:54 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:54 AM 8 hours ago, CAPE said: How about Greenland? Maybe a blocking pattern can be negotiated along with the US protection and military presence that has already existed for decades. Be careful what you wish for. We might get the Greenland Block plus the Nino moisture. Then look out DMV. That'd be a definitive, textbook George BM winter storm setup with people diggin' out for weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted Sunday at 11:10 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:10 AM Looks like only enough rain to be annoying this week. The Euro clears us out by late week and gives us a beautiful fall weekend with temps in the low 70's. Hopefully it's correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted Sunday at 11:42 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:42 AM The 5 model blend for Augusta County has increased from 1.65" yesterday to 1.72" this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Sunday at 02:53 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:53 PM 9 hours ago, Jebman said: Be careful what you wish for. We might get the Greenland Block plus the Nino moisture. Then look out DMV. That'd be a definitive, textbook George BM winter storm setup with people diggin' out for weeks. We deserve to be buried this winter in snow. Make it a 70" winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Sunday at 03:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:27 PM 4 hours ago, dailylurker said: Looks like only enough rain to be annoying this week. The Euro clears us out by late week and gives us a beautiful fall weekend with temps in the low 70's. Hopefully it's correct. Soil is powder here. Just put some grass/clover seed down this morning and loosening the soil was a dust bowl. Put straw down and hit it with the hose and now its raining. Getting the tail end of that weakening line. Enough to at least keep the seed damp for a day lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted Sunday at 04:16 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:16 PM I am enjoying one last sunny day before four straight dark, wet, cool days coming up. The best rain amounts with this pattern should be the normal rain shadow areas east of the mountains - that means you Stephens City! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted Monday at 07:52 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:52 PM On 9/20/2026 at 12:48 AM, Jebman said: There is a possibility that a tropical system near Baja California might develop into a Cat 3 Hurricane. I want a high end Cat 5, then all the moisture hits Texas. I crave for unprecedented moisture feeds from off the deep tropical Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico, plus my precious Caribbean Connection! I want catastrophic amounts of rain! I have an Ark. I'll be taking real time water level readings. I'd like to see at least 45 feet of water over the 1626/967 Intersection! BRING IT ON, SUPER NINO! I'm so pleased that I logged in for the first time all year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted Monday at 08:00 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:00 PM Congratulations Winchester!!!!!! I'm still DRY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Monday at 09:59 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 09:59 PM Is this finally ushering in the wet pattern or is it another head fake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Monday at 10:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:41 PM 41 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Is this finally ushering in the wet pattern or is it another head fake? Let's see how we're looking by Friday. If it's a bust then we might be having a problem. You're starting to see a few of the mets in the main ENSO threads ponder if this El Nino isn't fully coupling with the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Monday at 11:05 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:05 PM WB latest weeklies for October....seasonable temps and still dry. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted yesterday at 12:06 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 12:06 AM 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB latest weeklies for October....seasonable temps and still dry. Something isn’t adding up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago Euro really wants to retrograde the coastal low and ruin the second part of the upcoming weekend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted 10 hours ago Author Share Posted 10 hours ago CWG mentions the possibility of another coastal storm in 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 35 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: CWG mentions the possibility of another coastal storm in 2 weeks. 0z gfs says it’s a prelude to winter once the southeast ridge gets established. Apps runner. In seriousness, it’s good to see the gulf open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago End of next week could have a couple warm days but some growing support for a very robust cold shot early in October 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 36 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: End of next week could have a couple warm days but some growing support for a very robust cold shot early in October So long as the entire month isn't cold, that's solid for winter. Traditionally don't want a very cold October heading into winter, but a nice cold shot to really break into fall would be perfect. I saw that signal too within the means. Hopefully it happens. That'll accelerate the foliage around these parts. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 50 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: So long as the entire month isn't cold, that's solid for winter. Traditionally don't want a very cold October heading into winter, but a nice cold shot to really break into fall would be perfect. I saw that signal too within the means. Hopefully it happens. That'll accelerate the foliage around these parts. The pattern for later this month and October seems to favor warmer periods and then cooler airmasses and then back to warm again, cycling through the month. As mentioned by @WxUSAF early part of October looks to have a rather large cool down over the NE and Mid Atlantic. https://x.com/bam_weather/status/2102759592245469438 From BAM WX The early - mid October pattern looks to feature more frequent shots of colder air across the Eastern US. While we have another warm up next week, keep a close eye on the potential for the coolest air of the season arriving behind stronger fronts ~October 3 - 5th and October 7 - 9th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted 35 minutes ago Author Share Posted 35 minutes ago 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: End of next week could have a couple warm days but some growing support for a very robust cold shot early in October Question is will we pay for it with 80s in the back half? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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