nw baltimore wx Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 Just now, WxUSAF said: 12z gfs is very entertaining I was wondering why no one here had started a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 25 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 12z gfs is very entertaining Sick! Let's hope it's right lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 42 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 12z gfs is very entertaining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 GFS has been pretty consistent about that storm in our general vicinity for quite a few runs now. I'd consider that storm to usher in the base state pattern change if it were to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 Not same solution on euro but it also has some tropical like thing at the end of the run that would dump on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 Fun to look at fantasy range global runs, but will be watching the ensembles for any hints of a tropical hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 The Weather Underground and TWC can't agree on the position of the front. Is it over Erie or Morgantown??? This is important for the next 48 hrs. Absolutely amazing for what is supposed to be high tech in September of 2026. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted September 10 Author Share Posted September 10 1 hour ago, IronTy said: I'd consider that storm to usher in the base state pattern change if it were to happen. It would actually stick and not be a head fake like in May? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 10 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: It would actually stick and not be a head fake like in May? Nobody knows, but IME usually a significant pattern change comes about with a big storm ushering it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 WB 18Z NBM thru the weekend. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 Nino is dying . 65-66 is becoming more likely 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 31 minutes ago, stormy said: Nino is dying . 65-66 is becoming more likely It may not reach max forecast levels, but it's far from dying. There's another westerly wind burst coming in about a month, which will be the strongest if modeling is correct. After that passes it'll be November and we should have a decent idea about when it weakens and how fast. Probably won't be fast enough in my book unfortunately. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 11 hours ago, mitchnick said: It may not reach max forecast levels, but it's far from dying. There's another westerly wind burst coming in about a month, which will be the strongest if modeling is correct. After that passes it'll be November and we should have a decent idea about when it weakens and how fast. Probably won't be fast enough in my book unfortunately. Lol I was biased by JB and his "El Nino Madness". He makes some very good points with his language and illustrations. Your westerly wind burst may be interesting. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 On 9/6/2026 at 6:14 PM, WxUSAF said: I'll be in CO this week and 18z GFS says when I get home its 75 with a dew 45 75 part was pretty close. But the f-ing dew points won’t drop. Gonna have 60s dews for Xmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 12z GFS back to busting the drought again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 8 hours ago, WxUSAF said: 75 part was pretty close. But the f-ing dew points won’t drop. Gonna have 60s dews for Xmas. We did for Christmas 2015 and the last Super Nino..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgottwald Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 9 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: We did for Christmas 2015 and the last Super Nino..... And, memorably, in January 1998. Weirdest, most unpleasant January day ever. It felt kind of like this morning does: gloomy, stifling and overcast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted September 12 Author Share Posted September 12 12 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: We did for Christmas 2015 and the last Super Nino..... I was not on this site when that happened. How many people were announcing last rites in December 2015? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said: I was not on this site when that happened. How many people were announcing last rites in December 2015? They've all been eliminated and we no longer speak of them. Snow is serious bidness. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 Where is all the blue for next week? That pna signal crumbling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 Guidance keeps suggesting the potential for a multiday rain event starting next weekend sometime. Looks like a stationary front gets stuck between high pressure to the north and the Bermuda high offshore with waves running along it. But timing and the pattern uncertainty at range still exist of course. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted September 13 Author Share Posted September 13 3 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Guidance keeps suggesting the potential for a multiday rain event starting next weekend sometime. Looks like a stationary front gets stuck between high pressure to the north and the Bermuda high offshore with waves running along it. But timing and the pattern uncertainty at range still exist of course. Will it completely collapse like last night's though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 16 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Will it completely collapse like last night's though? Probably? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted September 13 Author Share Posted September 13 Just now, WxUSAF said: Probably? So basically the dry pattern injected steroids again and we got rug pulled... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 2 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said: So basically the dry pattern injected steroids again and we got rug pulled... Only if you actually thought it was actually going to rain. I know the drought pattern persists, so I don't get rug pulled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 Psyche! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 14 Share Posted September 14 19 hours ago, Ji said: Where is all the blue for next week? That pna signal crumbling "tale as old as time..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgottwald Posted September 14 Share Posted September 14 I swear, next year we're getting 80-degree lows in September, and probably DCA's average low will exceed 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted September 14 Share Posted September 14 22 hours ago, IronTy said: Only if you actually thought it was actually going to rain. I know the drought pattern persists, so I don't get rug pulled. Bingo. Rarely see September change patterns these days. Hot dry crunchy leaves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 14 Share Posted September 14 On 9/10/2026 at 5:24 PM, Weather Will said: WB 18z NBM thru the weekend.<snip> I got 0.02" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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