Septorcher 2026 Discussion - Endless Summer

[vortex95]

14 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Wind will be less inland like usual, but it’s a multi-facet deal with heavy rain too. Possible coastal flooding as tides slowly get higher astronomically. 

How about those 12z ECMWF rainfall totals when all is said and done?  9.95" right over Weymouth! 

Would be among the best Nor'easters in Sep for the region.
 

[vortex95]

15 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I said keep an eye on it in subsequent posts. 

No back-pedaling allowed!  Your initial approach was, "ho-hunm, maybe we can get something" said in EEYORE tone, despite strong signals in the models.

[vortex95]

14 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

There’s enough ensemble members showing a decent hit unlike previous days. Still could jog east though so wouldn’t lock anything yet.

If this was Jan, you'd be all in at this point! 

[vortex95]

11 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I've liked the signal for a while now. Just wish it tapped a little more into tropical influence. The runs today seem to be a little more potent with perhaps some subtropical/hybrid potential, but we're obviously still a ways out. 

AI ensembles look more bullish but you can see a little signal there across guidance. 

 

For the weenies among us, to be clear, I'm not saying we're going to get crushed by tropical lol. Just that the general pattern seems open for one of these coastals bearing hybrid characteristics. As @vortex95 notes, that's a bit unusual for this time of year along the east coast with "hybrid" season usually being in October, but given the overarching hostility in the Atlantic basin this year it's not surprising that the east coast right now could only support some kind of sprawling mess. 

12z ECMWF by 132 hr showing a strong warm seclusion unfolding (-6 C at 500 and +11 C at 700). 

I will get way ahead of myself and say this now, and an excuse to talk about past policy and events!

The problem I see here is not whether it goes ST, it is the messaging.  A strong non-tropical low then going ST and getting a name when it is sitting close to the coast?  That is big problem for messaging b/c non-tropical wind warnings would have to be changed to tropical wind warnings! 

I do not know of any case like this this close to the coast, but similar things have happened.  The Perfect Storm in Oct 1991.  Once it deeply occluded, it drifted S of the Gulf Stream and become a hurricane, but they did not call it such operationally *even* thought they had a recon in it and found a 981 mb pressure and 88 kt FL winds!  I found that disingenuous, as it was abundantly clear what it was, but NHC did not name it, and only included it in post-season analysis.

The reasoning was they did not want to confuse the public, as the public may have thought the storm was a hurricane all along and cry foul.  Such would never happen today b/c of the internet and social media.  Back in those days if NHC could get away w/ not declaring a high latitude or out of season TC and defer it to post-season analyses, they would. 

But it has gone further.  In Sep 1992, there was a small hurricane that quickly developed just N of TXKF, and it passed close to Sable Island when it was starting to weaken on sat, but they still recorded 55-60 kt winds.  It was not even included in post-season analysis!  In the TWO, it said, "moving towards cooler waters."  That was "out phrase" for NHC not to declare something back then.  Again, disingenuous and I find lazy.  Just b/c something only exists for a short time, does not mean it does not exist!

There are 5 suspect TCs in 1992 alone that will likely get included in HURDAT once the reanalysis project gets into to the 1990s (they plan to go to 2000).  And for those wondering, the pre-Christmas 1994 storm ( the @CoastalWx “how did you know about that?” event) is a likely candidate for a 70 kt hurricane, peaking at 70 kt / 969 mb near 40/70.

 

[vortex95]

11 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Regardless of status, the models really do have persistently strong onshore flow for days over the region. As long as this doesn't trend 500nm east or turn into a pumpkin, someone along the coast may have some trouble. 

@CoastalWx must relent! 

And yes, it might just be a "COASTAL WX" sig impact event, but so was the Perfect Storm in 1991!

[vortex95]

7 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

After years of boredom , we need and deserve something big . This would  be nice hit as it moves NW to due west into NY state 

One thing about lows that hook or loop back to the NW, it jacks up the winds more as it pushes against the high to NW.  One reason why the Oct 2021 event was NUTZ for WINDZZZZZZZZZZ!  

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, vortex95 said:

How about those 12z ECMWF rainfall totals when all is said and done?  9.95" right over Weymouth! 

Would be among the best Nor'easters in Sep for the region.
 

Wow..

[vortex95]

4 hours ago, Cyclone-68 said:

No lawn chair within a 100 miles should be safe from this 

 

[vortex95]

4 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Wind fields are quite impressive and would be with such a storm so definitely need to keep an eye on given the trees are fully leaved still. 

And there full LEAVES on the TREES!  One thing @CoastalWxneeds to account for here for the winds. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

.19" on the day here....so spitting.

[WxWatcher007]

We don’t look at the GFS, but it’s a damn good hit. AI twin is west too.

[WxWatcher007]

Euro deluge

[CoastalWx]

.17 so at least something last night 

[CoastalWx]

Both euros are pretty bad for the coast. 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 hours ago, vortex95 said:

One thing about lows that hook or loop back to the NW, it jacks up the winds more as it pushes against the high to NW.  One reason why the Oct 2021 event was NUTZ for WINDZZZZZZZZZZ!  

Great news! Please jack up

Seems like 50-70 mph for a good chunk of the region 

[kdxken]

58 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Great news! Please jack up

Seems like 50-70 mph for a good chunk of the region 

90-100 mph for the higher elevations of connecticut?

[moneypitmike]

7 hours ago, vortex95 said:

12z ECMWF by 132 hr showing a strong warm seclusion unfolding (-6 C at 500 and +11 C at 700). 

I will get way ahead of myself and say this now, and an excuse to talk about past policy and events!

The problem I see here is not whether it goes ST, it is the messaging.  A strong non-tropical low then going ST and getting a name when it is sitting close to the coast?  That is big problem for messaging b/c non-tropical wind warnings would have to be changed to tropical wind warnings! 

I do not know of any case like this this close to the coast, but similar things have happened.  The Perfect Storm in Oct 1991.  Once it deeply occluded, it drifted S of the Gulf Stream and become a hurricane, but they did not call it such operationally *even* thought they had a recon in it and found a 981 mb pressure and 88 kt FL winds!  I found that disingenuous, as it was abundantly clear what it was, but NHC did not name it, and only included it in post-season analysis.

The reasoning was they did not want to confuse the public, as the public may have thought the storm was a hurricane all along and cry foul.  Such would never happen today b/c of the internet and social media.  Back in those days if NHC could get away w/ not declaring a high latitude or out of season TC and defer it to post-season analyses, they would. 

But it has gone further.  In Sep 1992, there was a small hurricane that quickly developed just N of TXKF, and it passed close to Sable Island when it was starting to weaken on sat, but they still recorded 55-60 kt winds.  It was not even included in post-season analysis!  In the TWO, it said, "moving towards cooler waters."  That was "out phrase" for NHC not to declare something back then.  Again, disingenuous and I find lazy.  Just b/c something only exists for a short time, does not mean it does not exist!

There are 5 suspect TCs in 1992 alone that will likely get included in HURDAT once the reanalysis project gets into to the 1990s (they plan to go to 2000).  And for those wondering, the pre-Christmas 1994 storm ( the @CoastalWx “how did you know about that?” event) is a likely candidate for a 70 kt hurricane, peaking at 70 kt / 969 mb near 40/70.

 

Naming storms it s a boon to the industry as property deductibles are much, much higher for a named storm than for a non-named storm.  

#followthemoney

 

[SnoSki14]

Gfs wants nothing to do with it

[MJO812]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Gfs wants nothing to do with it

1 run

[CoastalWx]

The GFS is so bad. Look what it does in one run.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

.17 so at least something mast night 

I had .19" yesterday and .04" early this AM for a .23" total. I didn't expect that much additional after midnight.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I had .19" yesterday and .04" early this AM for a .23" total. I didn't expect that much additional after midnight.

Let’s hope the most boring stretch of our lives is coming to an abrupt end. 

[Typhoon Tip]

26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The GFS is so bad. Look what it does in one run.

Unless it's right?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Unless it's right?

I think he means "bad" in relation to run-run consistency...

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Let’s hope the most boring stretch of our lives is coming to an abrupt end. 

I checked right out on local weather once the blizzard finished and pulled out of my rear last February...knew there was nothing to see for months and months-

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Unless it's right?

I don’t even look at it. It’s been an embarrassiment.

[CoastalWx]

6z euro AI went a little east and then swung west from ACK to BID.

[CoastalWx]

Obviously some disagreement which is expected with such an anomalous setup. Would love for this to strengthen over Gulf Stream and swing west, south of SNE 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6z euro AI went a little east and then swung west from ACK to BID.

I always want to see coastals get going early.

[dendrite]

Min 46.4°

0.62”

Nice rain event with sheet -RADZ most of the day and evening.

Keep the rain coming.