August 2026 General Discussion

[Brian D]

Early data in for July. Very warm month, especially in the N sub. 5 & 10 yr trend charts shown respectively. 

[cmillzz]

On 8/1/2026 at 6:04 PM, roardog said:

They can’t really ever be wrong with equal chances.

CPC gave Texas the highest chances for above average temperatures, yet it ended up coolest relative to average, so there you go. With your line of thinking, they may as well have put the entire country in the "equal chances" zone.

[roardog]

31 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

CPC gave Texas the highest chances for above average temperatures, yet it ended up coolest relative to average, so there you go. With your line of thinking, they may as well have put the entire country in the "equal chances" zone.

With the way the CPC “ forecast” works they might as well. The darkest red area of Texas was a 60-70% probability of being above average. That means there was a 30-40% probability of it not being above average. The northeast corner of the state had a 40-50% probability. So there was a higher chance it wouldn’t be above average. lol

[cyclone77]

Severe storms approached and died.  Did get a few sprinkles though.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

0.08” at MSP yesterday. Extended forecast looks good temp wise, but could use more precipitation.

[Brian D]

Cool morning with temps running mid 40's to low 50's. Need rain, and some is forecast for tonight. 

[weatherbo]

Average looking weather heading into mid-August.  Cool nights, warm days, some showers... tell-tale signs of autumn are starting to show up here in the northland.

[Brian D]

Revamped this map. Been a long time since I posted this. Good look at the ranking from a dense rank perspective. July was a doosy for some of us in the N. Had to chuckle at MSP. It was one of the hottest avg's in the Midwest. Fit right in with Missouri wx  The North Shore experienced cool wx due to colder Lake waters. The hotter air coming in from the SW helping stns reach near record/record warmth inland, but brought cool lake winds along the shore. Point casts failed a lot. 

Note: You may have to click on the map, then zoom for a better look. Or just zoom the post. UPDATE: Enlarged in paint for better viewing  

EDIT: Just noticed that DET, with a longer period record, has only 66 unique temps for July. Compared to other longer period stns, that's a tighter range.

 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

6 hours ago, Brian D said:

Had to chuckle at MSP. It was one of the hottest avg's in the Midwest. Fit right in with Missouri wx

People underestimate how strong the Urban Heat Island effect is here. Got to be one of the most drastic in the country. 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Another needed storm complex missed us to the south. Daily precip chances keep things interesting at least. 

[Torchageddon]

Some garden storms were heading my way a few hrs ago then fizzled as they neared. Yep, mid summer is the time for nada. This current pattern is flip flopping from 24C to 27C every 48.

[WestMichigan]

First round yesterday afternoon was almost a complete miss.  Everything disintegrated as it moved inland.  Last night finally brought some rain.  All told just over 2" between the two rounds.  Something to keep the drought at bay for another week.

[A-L-E-K]

was splotchy

[cyclone77]

The early morning round that some of the models had for this area ended up not existing.  Looks like the late day action will be another northeast IL hit.  Dogshit pattern lol.

[A-L-E-K]

nest with a goofy looking convective evolution 

hate seeing our friends in droughtville struggling

[sbnwx85]

26 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

nest with a goofy looking convective evolution 

 

Legit laughed out loud at that output. What do you mean an Illinois MCS won’t do a U-turn and move northwest and slam into another random MCS in Iowa?

[Chicago Storm]

6 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

nest with a goofy looking convective evolution 

it always struggles in these patterns.

[A-L-E-K]

14 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

it always struggles in these patterns.

yeah def feels like it's done this before

[hawkeye_wx]

The dew point is back up to 80º here this afternoon.

[frostfern]

9 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

First round yesterday afternoon was almost a complete miss.  Everything disintegrated as it moved inland.  Last night finally brought some rain.  All told just over 2" between the two rounds.  Something to keep the drought at bay for another week.

Last night was a pleasant surprise with direct hit of a slow backbuilding cluster right over southern Kent County.  Lots of loud thunder for several hours.  Best non-severe storm of the summer.  I so much prefer this type of storm to a squall line that rushes through too fast to enjoy or provide good rain totals.  Required a lot of luck.

[cyclone77]

Had a few sprinkles from some elevated showers totaling 0.00".

DVN dew up to 80 this hour, 82 at Sterling.  

[frostfern]

10 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

was splotchy

Some models had a squall line, but in reality it remained hit or miss with backbuilding clusters and slow moving supercells.  The low and mid level wind fields were nothing special, but it seemed like there was strong shear up at the anvil level preventing cold pool formation.  The tops of the storm were being blown way to the SE.  It being too humid for much evaporation (not to mention late at night) could also be part of it.

I’m just happy I got lucky with a drought ending trainer locally when I wasn’t expecting much.

[luckyweather]

1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Had a few sprinkles from some elevated showers totaling 0.00".

DVN dew up to 80 this hour, 82 at Sterling.  

We’re stuck in this devilish parched screw hole. rfd had 3” rain in July, but 20 miles northeast I have less than .5” from 7/1 to present. Every chance just turns into sprinkles at best. The hydrologic and flood products hitting the wire out of LOT here and there are just a gut punch.