stormy Posted yesterday at 06:35 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:35 PM The 06z Euro gave Augusta County 1.05" by Sat. at 12z. At 12z it came to its senses with .10". The Euro has degraded to Graf league. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted yesterday at 06:40 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:40 PM 4 minutes ago, stormy said: The 06z Euro gave Augusta County 1.05" by Sat. at 12z. At 12z it came to its senses with .10". The Euro has degraded to Graf league. I don't have the 12z Euro on weather.cod.edu. Are you getting it from a paid site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted yesterday at 06:50 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:50 PM 9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I don't have the 12z Euro on weather.cod.edu. Are you getting it from a paid site? I'm getting it from WeatherBell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted yesterday at 06:54 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:54 PM Cool 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted yesterday at 07:31 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:31 PM 55 minutes ago, stormy said: The 06z Euro gave Augusta County 1.05" by Sat. at 12z. At 12z it came to its senses with .10". The Euro has degraded to Graf league. how can an elite model do this less than 12 hours from the storm. The HRRR does not seem impressed either west of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted yesterday at 07:32 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:32 PM 51 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I don't have the 12z Euro on weather.cod.edu. Are you getting it from a paid site? pay up bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted yesterday at 07:32 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:32 PM Just now, Ji said: how can an elite model do this less than 12 hours from the storm. The HRRR does not seem impressed either west of DC DC = Decreased Confidence Just now, Ji said: pay up bro In this economy? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted yesterday at 07:32 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:32 PM 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Euro has a brutal cutoff. 1” for Annapolis and DCA. 0.01” for Ellicott city and Westminster. nothing like an elite model doing stuff that models at 384 hours are suppose to do 12 hours before the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted yesterday at 07:39 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:39 PM the HRRR is a shutout for me until way past sunset lol when i get clobbered by showers and storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted yesterday at 07:45 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:45 PM 2 minutes ago, Ji said: the HRRR is a shutout for me until way past sunset lol when i get clobbered by showers and storms Why are you here? Shocking. This isn't your thing. No digital blue showing up in the long range yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted yesterday at 07:49 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:49 PM 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Why are you here? Shocking. This isn't your thing. No digital blue showing up in the long range yet? i guess i became a softball dad along the way. So rain events on weekends are kinda important now lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted yesterday at 07:50 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:50 PM 15 minutes ago, Ji said: how can an elite model do this less than 12 hours from the storm. The HRRR does not seem impressed either west of DC Without getting technical with a bunch of Nonsense. I'm still in serious Drought. 50 years ago, before anyone heard of Models, my grandfather said, "all signs fail in dry weather" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted yesterday at 08:10 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:10 PM 18 minutes ago, stormy said: Without getting technical with a bunch of Nonsense. I'm still in serious Drought. 50 years ago, before anyone heard of Models, my grandfather said, "all signs fail in dry weather" Was that his way of saying 'drought begets drought'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted yesterday at 08:32 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:32 PM 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: Was that his way of saying 'drought begets drought'? You are exactly right! West of the BR we have fallen into a God-awful pattern whereby feedback from previously existing conditions, foils the best and brightest of the models. The only hope we have is a +2.9 - 3.0 Nino breaking this pattern between Oct 1 and Dec. 31. Earlier today the Euro said, this will happen. The problem is that the Euro is not smart enough to fathom the feedback atmospherics of a serious Drought. Sorry Ji, "elite" is not perfect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted yesterday at 09:38 PM Share Posted yesterday at 09:38 PM 57 minutes ago, stormy said: You are exactly right! West of the BR we have fallen into a God-awful pattern whereby feedback from previously existing conditions, foils the best and brightest of the models. The only hope we have is a +2.9 - 3.0 Nino breaking this pattern between Oct 1 and Dec. 31. Earlier today the Euro said, this will happen. The problem is that the Euro is not smart enough to fathom the feedback atmospherics of a serious Drought. Sorry Ji, "elite" is not perfect. Well it is true that droughts can tend to be self sustaining(positive feedback loop) due to multiple factors. As for the models, I would think the physics are capable of resolving that to some degree. In places where general/long term dryness is a feature due to topography(downsloping for example) the models certainly can 'see' that- often depicting a precip min in those locales. Just ask @EastCoast NPZ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted yesterday at 10:03 PM Share Posted yesterday at 10:03 PM 21 minutes ago, CAPE said: Well it is true that droughts can tend to be self sustaining(positive feedback loop) due to multiple factors. As for the models, I would think the physics are capable of resolving that to some degree. In places where general/long term dryness is a feature due to topography(downsloping for example) the models certainly can 'see' that- often depicting a precip min in those locales. Just ask @EastCoast NPZ Down-sloping has been a problem this summer as, all to often, 18z flow has been 290 too 360. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted yesterday at 10:17 PM Share Posted yesterday at 10:17 PM Well...I guess i can mow tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago 5 hours ago, Ji said: the HRRR is a shutout for me until way past sunset lol when i get clobbered by showers and storms We are definitely getting way more precip down here in southern MD but do we mix? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago Poor Nam 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago 4 hours ago, stormy said: Down-sloping has been a problem this summer as, all to often, 18z flow has been 290 too 360. Make that 18,000 ft. flow 290 - 360 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Don't look now DMV but more rain coming up on you this time from the SSE. I think the Mid Atlantic is already getting El Nino'ed some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 5 hours ago, BlizzardNole said: We are definitely getting way more precip down here in southern MD but do we mix? Might change over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago lol brutal. From winter storm watch for 4-8 inches to scattered flurries and street riots 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 34 minutes ago, Ji said: lol brutal. From winter storm watch for 4-8 inches to scattered flurries and street riots Very La Nina 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago Sitting on the screened porch to enjoy the light rain. This looks like not much unless radar fills in later. 0.10 so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 9 hours ago, Ji said: Poor Nam 3k Going out with a whimper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago Where did the rainfall changes go. My PAC yesterday said 3/4-1 inch. Now it is down to less than a tenth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago Wow, forecasting is in a sad state of affair nowadays. Chimps would be better at predicting precip. And they can't even use the usual "this is an extremely complicated setup" trope that we hear every time during the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago Congrats Boston lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago Correct me if I am wrong but until the recent stormy weather we have had that put a huge dent in the drought, the overall theme has been the same since early spring…..we haven’t had a true rainy pattern setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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