August 2026

[winterwarlock]

7 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

It SEEMS (and I hope) that starting Friday we enter a nice late summer pattern featuring upper 70's and low 80's with fair weather.

Cant trust long or even mid term heck even short term models given their failure the last 6 weeks

[donsutherland1]

Highs will again reach the upper 70s and lower 80s tomorrow. It could turn somewhat warmer on Tuesday with the temperature topping out in the middle 80s. Showers and thundershowers are possible Tuesday night and Wednesday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.43°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer.

The SOI was -1.94 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.501 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 92% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.9° (0.2° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, bluewave said:

The stuck fronts are a function of the increasing summer high pressure over Eastern Canada building down to east of New England at times.

This also enhances the dew points with more onshore flow. Also leads to multiple flash flooding events across the area.

We used to get more high pressure to our west with offshore flow prior to this decade. Those were the years you highlighted with more 90° days at JFK. 

These days the higher 90° counts are west of the sea breeze front in NJ.

 

 

 

14 hours ago, bluewave said:

This was the 60th anniversary of the late August 1986 record cold outbreak. Was the last time MPO went below freezing and NYC reached 50° in August. It was followed by the snowiest winter of the 1980s in Central NJ.  
 

Data for August 28, 1986 through August 30, 1986
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

PA	TOBYHANNA POCONO MOUNTAIN ARPT	WBAN	31
PA	PHOENIXVILLE 1 E	COOP	34
NJ	LONG VALLEY	COOP	35
NJ	NEWTON	COOP	35
NJ	MORRIS PLAINS 1 W	COOP	36
NJ	INDIAN MILLS 2 W	COOP	37
NJ	PEMBERTON	COOP	37
PA	EAST STROUDSBURG	COOP	37
NJ	BELLEPLAIN STA FOREST	COOP	38
NJ	HIGH POINT PARK	COOP	38
PA	COATESVILLE 2 W	COOP	39
PA	GRATERFORD 1 E	COOP	39
PA	BELTZVILLE DAM	COOP	39
NJ	ESTELL MANOR	COOP	39
NJ	EWING 3 WNW	COOP	39
NJ	FLEMINGTON 5 NNW	COOP	39
NJ	TOMS RIVER	COOP	39

 

Data for August 28, 1986 through August 30, 1986
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

CT	COCKAPONSET RANGER STA	COOP	34
NY	WALDEN 1 ESE	COOP	35
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	38
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	39
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	39
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	39
CT	MOUNT CARMEL	COOP	39
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	40
NY	BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	41
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	42
NJ	ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG	COOP	42
NJ	WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM	COOP	42
NY	GARNERVILLE	COOP	42
NY	WESTBURY	COOP	42
NY	PATCHOGUE 2 N	COOP	42
CT	MIDDLETOWN 4 W	COOP	42
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	43
NJ	LITTLE FALLS	COOP	43
NY	SCARSDALE	COOP	43
NY	YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W	COOP	43
NY	MIDDLETOWN 2 NW	COOP	44
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	45
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	45
NY	RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	45
CT	GROTON	COOP	45
NY	NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS	COOP	46
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	46
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	46
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	46
NY	SETAUKET STRONG	COOP	46
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	46
NY	GREENPORT POWER HOUSE	COOP	46
NJ	JERSEY CITY	COOP	48
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	48
NY	WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK	COOP	48
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	50
NY	VANDERBILT MUSEUM	COOP	50
NY	NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN	COOP	51
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	52
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	53

 

Snowfall Data for October 1, 1986 through April 30, 1987
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

PA	TOBYHANNA POCONO MOUNTAIN ARPT	WBAN	86.6
NJ	SUSSEX 1 NW	COOP	70.0
PA	LONG POND POCONO LAKE	COOP	59.6
PA	COATESVILLE 2 W	COOP	59.3
NJ	HIGH POINT PARK	COOP	53.9
NJ	LAKEHURST NAS	WBAN	53.3
PA	DEVAULT 1 W	COOP	51.0
PA	GLENMOORE	COOP	50.0
NJ	ESTELL MANOR	COOP	48.1
NJ	NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE	COOP	47.3

The top 3 in the coldest lows range are all close to me and 1986 is the year our family purchased this property and the year this house was built but back then we only spent the summers here. From Tony's chronology I can see that 1982 also had a cold outbreak around this time. Both strong el ninos. Meanwhile that super heatwave in 1953 was fully underway by now.

It seems like back in the 80s and 90s it was both hotter and drier and colder and drier. Back then we could get desert dry air from the southwest which is how August 1980 was so hot and how JFK hit 100 in both July and August in 1983 and how NYC almost hit 100 in September in 1983 and why those 1988 and 1993 heatwaves were so long or polar dry air from the north which is why we got those early fall like airmasses in August 1982 and 1986. Now you need rain and a muggy onshore wind to get cool air. With poor sky conditions too.

Chris is Lake Harmony the only coop that reports snowfall around here? I've been trying to find snowfall averages around this area. Can you locate other snowfall reporting sites around here within a 10 mile radius at or above 1500 feet? Thanks!

 

[SACRUS]

Today's Highs:


PHL: 87
BLM: 85
ACY: 84
TTN: 84
New Brnswck: 82
TEB: 82
LGA: 82
EWR: 1
NYC: 79
ISP: 79
JFK: 78

[Dark Star]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Highs will again reach the upper 70s and lower 80s tomorrow. It could turn somewhat warmer on Tuesday with the temperature topping out in the middle 80s. Showers and thundershowers are possible Tuesday night and Wednesday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.43°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer.

The SOI was -1.94 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.501 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 92% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.9° (0.2° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

Going to roast down here in Morristown Tennessee for the next week...

[SACRUS]

DT up to low - mid 70s windows fogged up

[psv88]

81 today 

[LoboLeader1]

Topped out at 78F here yesterday. 

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

 

The top 3 in the coldest lows range are all close to me and 1986 is the year our family purchased this property and the year this house was built but back then we only spent the summers here. From Tony's chronology I can see that 1982 also had a cold outbreak around this time. Both strong el ninos. Meanwhile that super heatwave in 1953 was fully underway by now.

It seems like back in the 80s and 90s it was both hotter and drier and colder and drier. Back then we could get desert dry air from the southwest which is how August 1980 was so hot and how JFK hit 100 in both July and August in 1983 and how NYC almost hit 100 in September in 1983 and why those 1988 and 1993 heatwaves were so long or polar dry air from the north which is why we got those early fall like airmasses in August 1982 and 1986. Now you need rain and a muggy onshore wind to get cool air. With poor sky conditions too.

Chris is Lake Harmony the only coop that reports snowfall around here? I've been trying to find snowfall averages around this area. Can you locate other snowfall reporting sites around here within a 10 mile radius at or above 1500 feet? Thanks!

 

JFK was able to finish this summer with the 4th highest number of 95°+days similar to some of the big 90° summers you mentioned.

But stronger sea breezes overall lead to a lower total of 90°+ days than those years. So the higher end heat early on boosted JFK into the top 10 of warmest summers.

While the developing super El Nino summer of 2015 was also warm for average temperatures  at JFK, it didn’t have the major 95°+ and 100°+ heat this summer had. 

So the magnitude of the heat this summer was a first for such a high end El Niño event. 

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jun through Aug 95°+ days
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2010	10	0
2	1963	8	0
3	2002	7	0
-	1999	7	0
4	2026	6	2
-	2013	6	0
-	1949	6	0
5	2012	5	0
-	1983	5	0
-	1966	5	0
-	1955	5	0
6	2025	4	0
-	2022	4	0
-	2006	4	0
-	1993	4	0
-	1991	4	0
-	1974	4	0
-	1968	4	0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Warmest Summers
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2010	77.1	0
2	2016	76.5	0
3	2022	76.1	0
4	2015	76.0	0
5	2024	75.8	0
-	2011	75.8	0
6	2020	75.7	0
7	1983	75.6	0
8	2026	75.4	2
-	1984	75.4	0
9	2012	75.3	0
-	1991	75.3	0
10	2025	75.2	0
-	1971	75.2	0
-	1949	75.2	0

 

All-time Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature 
for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	104.0	1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03
2	103.0	2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22
3	102.0	2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02
-	102.0	2025-06-25 through 2025-06-25
-	102.0	2025-06-24 through 2025-06-24
-	102.0	2011-07-23 through 2011-07-23
-	102.0	1999-07-05 through 1999-07-05
-	102.0	1963-07-01 through 1963-07-01
4	101.0	2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06
-	101.0	2010-07-04 through 2010-07-04
-	101.0	1993-07-09 through 1993-07-09
-	101.0	1966-07-04 through 1966-07-04
-	101.0	1966-07-02 through 1966-07-02
-	101.0	1957-07-22 through 1957-07-22
-	101.0	1948-08-27 through 1948-08-27
5	100.0	2026-07-04 through 2026-07-04
-	100.0	2026-07-03 through 2026-07-03
-	100.0	2013-07-18 through 2013-07-18
-	100.0	2010-07-07 through 2010-07-07
-	100.0	1993-07-10 through 1993-07-10
-	100.0	1983-08-20 through 1983-08-20
-	100.0	1983-07-16 through 1983-07-16
-	100.0	1972-07-23 through 1972-07-23
-	100.0	1948-08-26 through 1948-08-26

 

[NEG NAO]

Not much has changed - reminds me of a few weeks ago when we were in the northeast side of the heat ridge which is famous for severe weather chances

[Brian5671]

16 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Not much has changed - reminds me of a few weeks ago when we were in the northeast side of the heat ridge which is famous for severe weather chances

quite the temp grandient northeast of the city-upper 60's to upper 80's in a short distance.  In between will get all the rain

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I think 1984 on that Top 10 warmest list is a mistake. That was one of the cooler summers at PHL. I think that one was one of the Top 10 least 90-degree days ever, and I believe the earliest last-90 on record. 1980 or 1988 would make much more sense there.

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I think 1984 on that Top 10 warmest list is a mistake. That was one of the cooler summers at PHL. I think that one was one of the Top 10 least 90-degree days ever, and I believe the earliest last-90 on record. 1980 or 1988 would make much more sense there.

You have to remember that the summer of 1984 had warmer departures in the Northeast than Philly had. So that’s why JFK had a higher ranking relative to Philly. This was the 3rd warmest summer for Philly and 4th warmest in ACY.

Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) Warmest Summers 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2010	79.6	0
2	2022	79.3	0
3	2026	78.8	1
-	2016	78.8	0
4	2024	78.5	0
-	1995	78.5	0
5	2020	78.3	0
-	1994	78.3	0
6	1993	78.2	0
7	2012	78.0	0
-	2011	78.0	0
8	1991	77.9	0
9	2005	77.8	0

 

Time Series Summary for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Warmest Summers 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2010	77.5	0
2	2020	76.9	0
-	2011	76.9	0
3	2018	76.5	0
4	2026	76.3	1
-	2019	76.3	0
5	2024	76.1	0
6	2022	75.8	0
-	2016	75.8	0
-	2005	75.8	0
7	2021	75.6	0
8	2008	75.5	0
9	1984	75.3	0
10	2006	75.2	0
11	1983	75.1	0

[SACRUS]

74 / 69 ridge positioned too far southwest and we ride the rim and stay cloudy and shower/storms through Thursday / Friday.  EWR going for the record / tie of every day in August 80 or above with 2015, but it may fall short at 79.  Overall warm but wet week.  The labor day weekend may be more of a California style onshore pattern but hope stays dry.  Nation roasts northeast remains buffeted by onshore and stays near normal overall  once to the 9/7 and beyond.

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 102 (1953)
NYC: 100 (1953)
LGA: 100 (1953)
JFK: 97 (2010)


Lows:

EWR: 47 (1934)
NYC: 50 (1976)
LGA: 52 (1976)
JFK: 46 (1965)


Historical:

 

1587: Admiral Drake encountered a hurricane at Roanoke Island during the following year. Strong northeast gales caused him and his crew to "cut his cables" and set out to sea. It took six days to regroup after this treacherous storm. (Ref. for Hurricane of 1587)

 

1886 - A magnitude 7.3 earthquake shook Charleston, South Carolina around 9:50 pm on this day. This earthquake is the most damaging quake to occur in the southeast United States. This earthquake caused 60 deaths and between 5 to 6 million dollars in damage to over 2,000 buildings in the southeastern United States.

1886: The Charleston Earthquake of 1886 was the most damaging quake to hit the Southeastern United States. It occurred at 9:50 p.m. on August 31, 1886, and lasted just under a minute. The earthquake caused severe damage in Charleston, South Carolina, damaging 2,000 buildings and causing $6 million worth in damages, while in the whole city the buildings were only valued at approximately $24 million. Between 60 and 110 lives were lost. Some of the damage is still seen today. It was felt as far away as Boston to the north, Chicago and Milwaukee to the northwest, as far west as New Orleans, as far south as Cuba, and as far east as Bermuda. The earthquake is estimated to have been between 6.6 and 7.3 on the Richter scale with a Mercalli Intensity of X. The 1886 earthquake is a heavily studied example of an intraplate earthquake. The earthquake is believed to have occurred on faults formed during the break-up of Pangaea. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)
 

1915 - The temperature at Bartlesville, OK, dipped to 38 degrees to establish a state record for the month of August. (The Weather Channel)

1922 - An incredible hailstorm occurred near West Chester, PA dropped so much hail that fields were covered with up to two feet of drifted hail the next day.

1934: A cool 49° minimum temperature equaled August record set on 24th in 1890 in Washington, DC. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) A cool 46° minimum is the lowest August temperature on record for Richmond, VA. (Ref. Richmond Weather Records) Boston, Massachusetts recorded its highest pressure 30.48 inches of mercury for the month of August. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

1935 - The most intense hurricane to make landfall was a modest tropical depression on this day. Called the Labor Day Hurricane, this storm went through phenomenal intensification to become a Category 5 hurricane by September 2nd.

1936: Among the many heat-related records established during the summer of 1936 was the number of days with highs 90° or above. Springfield, IL reported 69 such days during the year, 57 of which occurred between June and August. At Peoria, IL the total for the year was 64, a few days shy of the record of 68 degrees set in 1887. It was the hottest month ever recorded in Oklahoma City, OK with an average temperature of 88.7°. This is 7.5° above the normal for August, and 0.4° warmer than the second hottest months, a tie between July 1980 and July 1934. Also, the two hottest daily temperatures ever recorded in August in Oklahoma City occurred in 1936, along with the warmest daily minimum temperature ever recorded in the city. Many of the daily record highs set in 1936 are still records for their respective dates. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1949: Earliest snowfall known for Minnesota. A trace of snow fell at the new Duluth, MN Airport. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1953: Areas from the upper Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes to the East Coast were in the midst of a late summer heat wave that continued into early September. Record highs included: Richmond, VA: 102°, Baltimore, MD: 102°, Newark, NJ: 102°, Bismarck, ND: 101°, Louisville, KY: 101°, Rockford, IL: 101°, Huntington, WV: 101°, Wilmington, DE: 101°, Philadelphia, PA: 101°, St. Louis, MO: 100°, Paducah, KY: 100°, New York (Central Park), NY: 100°, New York (LaGuardia Airport), NY: 100°, Washington, DC: 100°-Tied, Chicago, IL: 99°, Hartford, CT: 98°, Cincinnati, OH: 98°-Tied, Atlantic City, NJ: 97°, Boston, MA: 97°, Beckley, WV: 94°-Tied, Elkins, WV: 92 °F.(Ref. Many Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)

1954 - Hurricane Carol swept across eastern New England killing sixty persons and causing 450 million dollars damage. It was the first of three hurricanes to affect New England that year. (David Ludlum)

1964: 11.40 inches of rain fell at Norfolk, VA, from Hurricane Cleo, setting their all-time 24 hour rainfall record. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1967: Hurricane Kathleen brought a 3-day barrage of wind and storm surge to the Mexican coast, destroying the town of San Felipe and leaving 2,500 people homeless while sinking 60 vessels. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1971 - The low of 84 degrees and high of 108 degrees at Death Valley, CA, were the coolest of the month. The average daily high was 115.7 degrees that August, and the average daily low was 93.4 degrees. (The Weather Channel)


1974: Idabel, Okla.--Lightning struck and killed a 9- year-old boy while he was playing in his treehouse. (Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf)

1979: Hurricane David brought over $1 billion dollars in damage to Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic and killed over 1,200 people. Before making landfall, the Category 5 storm had maximum sustained winds of 175 mph. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1984 - Lightning ignited several forest fires in Montana, one of which burned through 100,000 acres of timber and grassland. (The Weather Channel)

1985: Hurricane Elena stalled off the coast of West Central Florida. More than 300,000 residents fled their homes. Although Elena never came closer than 80 miles to the Tampa Bay area, its 40 to 50 mph sustained winds caused tides 6 feet above normal on the beaches and 7 feet above normal in the bay. The storm killed 4 people, destroyed more than 250 homes and damaged thousands of others before reversing course and coming ashore in Mississippi. Total damages to man-made property in Florida were estimated at $213 million dollars. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1987 - Eight cities in Washington and Oregon reported record high temperatures for the date, including Eugene OR and Portland OR with afternoon highs of 102 degrees. The high of 102 degrees at Portland smashed their previous record for the date by twelve degrees. Frost was reported in South Dakota. Aberdeen SD established a record for the month of August with a morning low of 32 degrees, and Britton SD dipped to 31 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - August ended on a relatively mild and tranquil note for most of the nation. Forest fires in the northwestern U.S. scorched 180,000 acres of land during the last week of August. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms developing along a stationary front spread severe weather from Minnesota to Indiana through the course of the day and night. Thunderstorms in Minnesota produced baseball size hail near Saint Michael and Hutchinson, and drenched Moose Lake with nine inches of rain in six hours. Tucson AZ hit 100 degrees for a record 79th time in the year, surpassing a record established the previous year. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)


1991: Portland, ME ended up with 15.22 inches of rain for the month, setting a new all-time monthly rainfall record for any month. The old record was 13.50 inches set in November 1983. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1993: Hurricane Emily raked the North Carolina Outer Banks. Winds reached 98 mph at the Cape Hatteras Weather Service Office along with 7.51 inches of rain. Another anemometer in the area recorded a wind gust to 107 mph. Diamond Shoals Coastal Marine Buoy was in the eye and recorded a low pressure of 964 millibars or 28.47 inches of mercury. After the eye passed, sustained winds hit 103 mph with a peak gust of 148 mph. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1997: This year was only the third year in recorded history that no tropical storm occurred in August. The other two years were 1941 and 1961. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1999: Residents of the low-lying North Carolina Outer Banks were on the run for a second time as unpredictable Hurricane Dennis. Dennis continued to perplex weather forecasters by lumbering back toward the coast after heading out to sea the day before. As the hurricane retrograded, blocked by high pressure, gale force winds and 14 foot seas pounded the coast. Roads were under water along Hatteras Island. At least 7 inches of rain fell in Brunswick County, North Carolina. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2004: Hurricane Gaston made landfall north of Charleston, SC on Sunday morning 29 August 2004. It weakened to a tropical depression as it moved north into North Carolina. Rainfall in North Carolina was generally in the 50 to 100 mm (2-4 inches) range. During the early morning of 30 August 2004, Gaston was losing strength and no flooding rain was anticipated for Virginia. Later, as the storm moved across southern and central Virginia, supercell thunderstorms developed evolving into a very heavy rain event for central Virginia. Gaston strengthened back to a tropical storm as it moved off the Delmarva coast early 31 August 2004. The maximum unofficial rainfall report was 324 mm (12.60 inches) recorded in the city of Richmond, VA.
(Ref. Monthly Weather Review)Richmond International Airport recorded 16.30 inches of rain for August making it the third wettest month on their records back to 1871. (Ref. Richmond International Airport Records) 179 tornadoes occurred for the month in the U.S. to set a new record for most tornadoes in August. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)


2017: Harvey was a Category 4 hurricane at its peak. On Tuesday afternoon the 29th, the Mont Belvieu industrial suburb east of Houston recorded 51.12 inches of water, breaking the highest previous record of 48 inches from 1978’s Tropical Storm Amelia in Medina, Texas. Hurricane Harvey was the first major hurricane[nb 1] to make landfall in the United States since Wilma in 2005, ending a record 12-year period with no major hurricanes making landfall in the United States. In a four-day period, many areas received more than 40 inches (1,000 mm) of rain as the system meandered over eastern Texas and adjacent waters, causing catastrophic flooding. With peak accumulations of 51.88 in (1,318 mm), Harvey is the wettest tropical cyclone on record in the contiguous United States. The resulting floods inundated hundreds of thousands of homes, displaced more than 30,000 people, and prompted more than 17,000 rescues. The eighth named storm, third hurricane, and the first major hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. Harvey has caused at least 51 confirmed deaths; 1 in Guyana, and 50 in the United States. Catastrophic inland flooding is ongoing in the Greater Houston metropolitan area. FEMA director Brock Long called Harvey the worst disaster in Texas history, and expected the recovery to take many years. Preliminary estimates of economic losses range from $30 billion to $150 billion, with a large portion of the losses sustained by uninsured homeowners. “This is as catastrophic as you could possibly imagine from a Category 4 storm.” (SE,TX After 30 to 45 inches of rain and more to come)

[SACRUS]

On 8/24/2026 at 9:03 AM, SACRUS said:

Weekly update SST:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly:

 

 

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

27 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I think 1984 on that Top 10 warmest list is a mistake. That was one of the cooler summers at PHL. I think that one was one of the Top 10 least 90-degree days ever, and I believe the earliest last-90 on record. 1980 or 1988 would make much more sense there.

One of the odd years PHL had less 90 degree days than northern areas maybe the one exception for NYC sites.  EWR has had more than PHL or equal on many occasions.


 

Year	EWR	PHL	LGA	NYC	JFK
2025	39	37	26	14	15
2024	33	32	21	21	6
2023	29	24	16	12	8
2022	49	48	30	25	16
2021	41	37	25	17	10
2020	31	36	34	20	12
2019	27	35	26	15	7
2018	36	30	38	21	8
2017	22	26	17	13	9
2016	40	46	32	22	15
2015	35	37	20	20	12
2014	15	19	6	8	2
2013	25	20	21	17	9
2012	33	39	28	19	16
2011	31	33	19	20	13
2010	54	55	48	37	32
2009	14	15	8	7	6
2008	22	23	19	12	9
2007	21	24	23	10	7
2006	27	27	22	8	12
2005	37	29	30	23	17
2004	13	9	7	2	1
2003	20	23	17	8	12
2002	41	46	35	32	21
2001	22	23	17	15	8
2000	16	10	12	7	6
1999	33	35	26	27	14
1998	21	31	11	8	5
1997	20	20	17	12	10
1996	9	7	6	3	4
1995	33	49	23	29	15
1994	39	36	22	19	7
1993	49	41	26	39	13
1992	22	14	9	9	6
1991	41	53	34	39	17
1990	26	23	10	12	6
1989	27	19	17	16	9
1988	43	49	26	32	14
1987	37	31	19	22	11
1986	22	33	9	11	8
1985	11	12	8	9	5
1984	22	7	9	10	13
1983	40	41	31	36	26
1982	12	12	6	11	4
1981	21	15	15	16	11
1980	27	36	22	32	11

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Weekly:

 

 

 

 

2 important ingredients into how much cold and snow we receive this winter in my opinion is if this becomes a Modoki El Nino with the warmest waters in the central regions of the Pacific and if we have a repeat of late 2025 where the Polar Vortex was displaced in our direction earlier in the season. Both of these won't be known for a few months.

 

 

[SACRUS]

17 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

2 important ingredients into how much cold and snow we receive this winter in my opinion is if this becomes a Modoki El Nino with the warmest waters in the central regions of the Pacific and if we have a repeat of late 2025 where the Polar Vortex was displaced in our direction earlier in the season. Both of these won't be known for a few months.

I dumped the latest data and asked AI to summarize:  (will do August numbers when they come in, once that happens ill repost)

 

The latest ENSO data continue to strongly support a major El Niño analog package for 2026–27. July 2026 monthly values show Niño 3.4 at +1.73°C, Niño 3 at +2.30°C, Niño 1+2 at +2.91°C, and Niño 4 at +1.42°C. This means the event is not just east-Pacific warm; it also has strong basinwide support. The atmospheric side is also very strongly coupled, with SOI at -4.00 and MEI.v2 at +2.41 for July 2026. ONI is already +1.40 through June, RONI is +1.34 for July, and the subsurface/thermocline indicators are supportive, including strong upper-ocean heat content and a much deeper-than-normal thermocline in the east.

Compared with past El Niño events, the best current analogs remain the major-event years: 1997–98, 2015–16, and 1982–83. The 1997 analog still looks best for the explosive east-Pacific component, especially with the very warm Niño 1+2 and Niño 3 regions. The 2015 analog is also very strong because 2026 now has a more basinwide look, with Niño 4 also quite warm. 1982 remains a strong analog for the eventual major-event trajectory and atmospheric response, even though it was not as warm in July as 2026 is now. Secondary analogs include 1972–73, 2023–24, 1965–66, and 1957–58.

By category, the top SST-structure analogs are 1997, 2015, 2023, 1972, and 1982. For Niño 3.4 intensity and projected peak, the best analogs are 2015, 1997, 1982, 1972, and 1965. For the far-eastern Pacific / Niño 1+2 component, the best analogs are 1997, 2023, 2015, 1972, and 1965. For Niño 4 / basinwide support, the best matches are 2015, 2002, 2023, 1997, and 2009. For atmospheric coupling using SOI and MEI, the best analogs are 1997, 2015, 1982, 1972, and 1965. Overall, the current blend favors 1997–98 first, 2015–16 second, 1982–83 third, then 1972–73, 2023–24, 1965–66, 1957–58, 1991–92, 2002–03, and 2009–10.

Parameter	Latest 2026 Reading	Period	What It Shows
Niño 3.4	+1.73°C	July 2026	Strong central/east-central El Niño
Niño 3	+2.30°C	July 2026	Very strong east-central warming
Niño 1+2	+2.91°C	July 2026	Very strong far-eastern Pacific warming
Niño 4	+1.42°C	July 2026	Basinwide support, not just coastal/eastern
ONI	+1.40°C	June 2026	El Niño established on 3-month basis
RONI	+1.34°C	July 2026	Strong relative Niño 3.4 signal
MEI.v2	+2.41	July 2026	Very strong coupled ocean-atmosphere signal
SOI	-4.00	July 2026	Very strong atmospheric El Niño response
OLR	-1.20	July 2026	Enhanced central/eastern Pacific convection
Heat Content	+2.48	July 2026	Strong subsurface warm support
200mb Zonal Winds	-6.79	July 2026	Upper-level easterly anomaly support
20°C Thermocline Depth, 95W	+56.28 m	July 2026	Much deeper-than-normal eastern thermocline

Overall Rank	Analog	Match Level	Main Reason
1	1997–98	Best overall	Best blend of rapid onset, east-Pacific warmth, strong MEI, and major-event trajectory
2	2015–16	Very high	Best basinwide/intensity match, especially with strong Niño 4 support
3	1982–83	High	Excellent major-event trajectory and atmospheric response, though weaker July SSTs
4	1972–73	High	Classic eastern-Pacific strong El Niño analog
5	2023–24	Moderate-high	Excellent recent east-Pacific analog, but weaker coupling at the same stage
6	1965–66	Moderate-high	Good east-Pacific and SOI secondary analog
7	1957–58	Moderate-high	Strong historical El Niño, useful secondary analog
8	1991–92	Moderate	Decent coupled warm-event analog, but weaker structure
9	2002–03	Moderate	More central/basinwide, weaker eastern-Pacific match
10	2009–10	Lower-moderate	El Niño winter analog, but weaker summer development/coupling

Bottom line: the latest readings strengthen the case that 2026–27 belongs in the major El Niño analog group. The strongest overall comparisons are 1997–98, 2015–16, and 1982–83, with 1972–73 as the best classic eastern-Pacific secondary analog. What makes 2026 stand out is the combination of very warm Niño 1+2, strong Niño 3.4, strong Niño 4, a very negative SOI, and MEI.v2 above +2. That is a much stronger coupled signal than 2023 had at the same point.

[donsutherland1]

13 hours ago, Dark Star said:

Going to roast down here in Morristown Tennessee for the next week...

Yes. Your area, parts of the Mid-Atlantic, etc., will see excessive heat. Try to stay cool.

[Stormlover74]

This is going to be a very annoying week I fear. Lots of rain/storm chances but hard to pinpoint timing

[Brian5671]

14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

This is going to be a very annoying week I fear. Lots of rain/storm chances but hard to pinpoint timing

and alot of model busting on placement of rains etc

[SACRUS]

[SACRUS]

Rain into NE PA

 

[straphanger]

It looks like the rain will be approaching the city in another hour or two.  Which is weird since the the NWS removed rain chances from the "This Afternoon" section.  And AccuWeather/TWC wasn't really expecting much in their hourlies until they updated it after lunch to show increasing chances in the afternoon/evening.

[NEG NAO]

5 hours ago, SACRUS said:

I dumped the latest data and asked AI to summarize:  (will do August numbers when they come in, once that happens ill repost)

 

The latest ENSO data continue to strongly support a major El Niño analog package for 2026–27. July 2026 monthly values show Niño 3.4 at +1.73°C, Niño 3 at +2.30°C, Niño 1+2 at +2.91°C, and Niño 4 at +1.42°C. This means the event is not just east-Pacific warm; it also has strong basinwide support. The atmospheric side is also very strongly coupled, with SOI at -4.00 and MEI.v2 at +2.41 for July 2026. ONI is already +1.40 through June, RONI is +1.34 for July, and the subsurface/thermocline indicators are supportive, including strong upper-ocean heat content and a much deeper-than-normal thermocline in the east.

Compared with past El Niño events, the best current analogs remain the major-event years: 1997–98, 2015–16, and 1982–83. The 1997 analog still looks best for the explosive east-Pacific component, especially with the very warm Niño 1+2 and Niño 3 regions. The 2015 analog is also very strong because 2026 now has a more basinwide look, with Niño 4 also quite warm. 1982 remains a strong analog for the eventual major-event trajectory and atmospheric response, even though it was not as warm in July as 2026 is now. Secondary analogs include 1972–73, 2023–24, 1965–66, and 1957–58.

By category, the top SST-structure analogs are 1997, 2015, 2023, 1972, and 1982. For Niño 3.4 intensity and projected peak, the best analogs are 2015, 1997, 1982, 1972, and 1965. For the far-eastern Pacific / Niño 1+2 component, the best analogs are 1997, 2023, 2015, 1972, and 1965. For Niño 4 / basinwide support, the best matches are 2015, 2002, 2023, 1997, and 2009. For atmospheric coupling using SOI and MEI, the best analogs are 1997, 2015, 1982, 1972, and 1965. Overall, the current blend favors 1997–98 first, 2015–16 second, 1982–83 third, then 1972–73, 2023–24, 1965–66, 1957–58, 1991–92, 2002–03, and 2009–10.

Parameter	Latest 2026 Reading	Period	What It Shows
Niño 3.4	+1.73°C	July 2026	Strong central/east-central El Niño
Niño 3	+2.30°C	July 2026	Very strong east-central warming
Niño 1+2	+2.91°C	July 2026	Very strong far-eastern Pacific warming
Niño 4	+1.42°C	July 2026	Basinwide support, not just coastal/eastern
ONI	+1.40°C	June 2026	El Niño established on 3-month basis
RONI	+1.34°C	July 2026	Strong relative Niño 3.4 signal
MEI.v2	+2.41	July 2026	Very strong coupled ocean-atmosphere signal
SOI	-4.00	July 2026	Very strong atmospheric El Niño response
OLR	-1.20	July 2026	Enhanced central/eastern Pacific convection
Heat Content	+2.48	July 2026	Strong subsurface warm support
200mb Zonal Winds	-6.79	July 2026	Upper-level easterly anomaly support
20°C Thermocline Depth, 95W	+56.28 m	July 2026	Much deeper-than-normal eastern thermocline

Overall Rank	Analog	Match Level	Main Reason
1	1997–98	Best overall	Best blend of rapid onset, east-Pacific warmth, strong MEI, and major-event trajectory
2	2015–16	Very high	Best basinwide/intensity match, especially with strong Niño 4 support
3	1982–83	High	Excellent major-event trajectory and atmospheric response, though weaker July SSTs
4	1972–73	High	Classic eastern-Pacific strong El Niño analog
5	2023–24	Moderate-high	Excellent recent east-Pacific analog, but weaker coupling at the same stage
6	1965–66	Moderate-high	Good east-Pacific and SOI secondary analog
7	1957–58	Moderate-high	Strong historical El Niño, useful secondary analog
8	1991–92	Moderate	Decent coupled warm-event analog, but weaker structure
9	2002–03	Moderate	More central/basinwide, weaker eastern-Pacific match
10	2009–10	Lower-moderate	El Niño winter analog, but weaker summer development/coupling

Bottom line: the latest readings strengthen the case that 2026–27 belongs in the major El Niño analog group. The strongest overall comparisons are 1997–98, 2015–16, and 1982–83, with 1972–73 as the best classic eastern-Pacific secondary analog. What makes 2026 stand out is the combination of very warm Niño 1+2, strong Niño 3.4, strong Niño 4, a very negative SOI, and MEI.v2 above +2. That is a much stronger coupled signal than 2023 had at the same point.

Another area to consider when trying to consider if the winter is going to be colder/snowier in the east is how the Arctic and Greenland Ice Sheet gained or lost Ice in the summer months. The Arctic lost very little Ice and the map below illustrates that potential source of cold air in the winter months Greenland actually gained Ice these last 3 months - encouraging news