August 2026

[winterwarlock]

7 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

It SEEMS (and I hope) that starting Friday we enter a nice late summer pattern featuring upper 70's and low 80's with fair weather.

Cant trust long or even mid term heck even short term models given their failure the last 6 weeks

[donsutherland1]

Highs will again reach the upper 70s and lower 80s tomorrow. It could turn somewhat warmer on Tuesday with the temperature topping out in the middle 80s. Showers and thundershowers are possible Tuesday night and Wednesday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.43°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer.

The SOI was -1.94 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.501 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 92% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.9° (0.2° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, bluewave said:

The stuck fronts are a function of the increasing summer high pressure over Eastern Canada building down to east of New England at times.

This also enhances the dew points with more onshore flow. Also leads to multiple flash flooding events across the area.

We used to get more high pressure to our west with offshore flow prior to this decade. Those were the years you highlighted with more 90° days at JFK. 

These days the higher 90° counts are west of the sea breeze front in NJ.

 

 

 

14 hours ago, bluewave said:

This was the 60th anniversary of the late August 1986 record cold outbreak. Was the last time MPO went below freezing and NYC reached 50° in August. It was followed by the snowiest winter of the 1980s in Central NJ.  
 

Data for August 28, 1986 through August 30, 1986
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

PA	TOBYHANNA POCONO MOUNTAIN ARPT	WBAN	31
PA	PHOENIXVILLE 1 E	COOP	34
NJ	LONG VALLEY	COOP	35
NJ	NEWTON	COOP	35
NJ	MORRIS PLAINS 1 W	COOP	36
NJ	INDIAN MILLS 2 W	COOP	37
NJ	PEMBERTON	COOP	37
PA	EAST STROUDSBURG	COOP	37
NJ	BELLEPLAIN STA FOREST	COOP	38
NJ	HIGH POINT PARK	COOP	38
PA	COATESVILLE 2 W	COOP	39
PA	GRATERFORD 1 E	COOP	39
PA	BELTZVILLE DAM	COOP	39
NJ	ESTELL MANOR	COOP	39
NJ	EWING 3 WNW	COOP	39
NJ	FLEMINGTON 5 NNW	COOP	39
NJ	TOMS RIVER	COOP	39

 

Data for August 28, 1986 through August 30, 1986
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

CT	COCKAPONSET RANGER STA	COOP	34
NY	WALDEN 1 ESE	COOP	35
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	38
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	39
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	39
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	39
CT	MOUNT CARMEL	COOP	39
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	40
NY	BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	41
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	42
NJ	ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG	COOP	42
NJ	WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM	COOP	42
NY	GARNERVILLE	COOP	42
NY	WESTBURY	COOP	42
NY	PATCHOGUE 2 N	COOP	42
CT	MIDDLETOWN 4 W	COOP	42
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	43
NJ	LITTLE FALLS	COOP	43
NY	SCARSDALE	COOP	43
NY	YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W	COOP	43
NY	MIDDLETOWN 2 NW	COOP	44
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	45
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	45
NY	RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	45
CT	GROTON	COOP	45
NY	NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS	COOP	46
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	46
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	46
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	46
NY	SETAUKET STRONG	COOP	46
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	46
NY	GREENPORT POWER HOUSE	COOP	46
NJ	JERSEY CITY	COOP	48
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	48
NY	WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK	COOP	48
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	50
NY	VANDERBILT MUSEUM	COOP	50
NY	NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN	COOP	51
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	52
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	53

 

Snowfall Data for October 1, 1986 through April 30, 1987
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

PA	TOBYHANNA POCONO MOUNTAIN ARPT	WBAN	86.6
NJ	SUSSEX 1 NW	COOP	70.0
PA	LONG POND POCONO LAKE	COOP	59.6
PA	COATESVILLE 2 W	COOP	59.3
NJ	HIGH POINT PARK	COOP	53.9
NJ	LAKEHURST NAS	WBAN	53.3
PA	DEVAULT 1 W	COOP	51.0
PA	GLENMOORE	COOP	50.0
NJ	ESTELL MANOR	COOP	48.1
NJ	NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE	COOP	47.3

The top 3 in the coldest lows range are all close to me and 1986 is the year our family purchased this property and the year this house was built but back then we only spent the summers here. From Tony's chronology I can see that 1982 also had a cold outbreak around this time. Both strong el ninos. Meanwhile that super heatwave in 1953 was fully underway by now.

It seems like back in the 80s and 90s it was both hotter and drier and colder and drier. Back then we could get desert dry air from the southwest which is how August 1980 was so hot and how JFK hit 100 in both July and August in 1983 and how NYC almost hit 100 in September in 1983 and why those 1988 and 1993 heatwaves were so long or polar dry air from the north which is why we got those early fall like airmasses in August 1982 and 1986. Now you need rain and a muggy onshore wind to get cool air. With poor sky conditions too.

Chris is Lake Harmony the only coop that reports snowfall around here? I've been trying to find snowfall averages around this area. Can you locate other snowfall reporting sites around here within a 10 mile radius at or above 1500 feet? Thanks!

 

[SACRUS]

Today's Highs:


PHL: 87
BLM: 85
ACY: 84
TTN: 84
New Brnswck: 82
TEB: 82
LGA: 82
EWR: 1
NYC: 79
ISP: 79
JFK: 78

[Dark Star]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Highs will again reach the upper 70s and lower 80s tomorrow. It could turn somewhat warmer on Tuesday with the temperature topping out in the middle 80s. Showers and thundershowers are possible Tuesday night and Wednesday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.43°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer.

The SOI was -1.94 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.501 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 92% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.9° (0.2° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

Going to roast down here in Morristown Tennessee for the next week...