August 2026

[winterwarlock]

7 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

It SEEMS (and I hope) that starting Friday we enter a nice late summer pattern featuring upper 70's and low 80's with fair weather.

Cant trust long or even mid term heck even short term models given their failure the last 6 weeks

[donsutherland1]

Highs will again reach the upper 70s and lower 80s tomorrow. It could turn somewhat warmer on Tuesday with the temperature topping out in the middle 80s. Showers and thundershowers are possible Tuesday night and Wednesday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.43°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer.

The SOI was -1.94 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.501 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 92% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.9° (0.2° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.