August 2026

[SACRUS]

Today's Highs:

PHL: 90
EWR: 89
ACY: 89
BLM: 88
New Brnswck: 88
LGA: 88
TEB: 87
TTN: 86
NYC: 85
ISP: 84
JFK: 84

[donsutherland1]

A slow-moving cold front will likely bring showers or thundershowers to the region tomorrow into tomorrow night. Parts of the region could experience flooding.

The frontal passage will be followed by a reinforcing shot of cooler air. Friday could see highs in the lower 80s with some additional showers or thundershowers. The weekend could feature cool and perhaps unsettled weather. The greatest chance for rain will be on Saturday.

Somewhat cooler than normal weather will then extend into at least the middle of next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around August 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.32°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer.

The SOI was -28.34 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.178 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 53% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.2° (0.1° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, TriPol said:

Yes. We do.

 

I dont know how familiar you are with our climate but summers are supposed to be dry and moderate summer droughts are entirely normal. Alarmism based on color coded maps is unnecessary and unwarranted.  Flooding is FAR worse than a moderate drought.  Droughts normally end in the Fall anyway no need to spoil the summer even more.

 

[JerseyWx]

5 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

Today and last Saturday aside August has sucked..way too much clouds humidity and constant shoeer threats

Yeah even today had more clouds than I thought it would.  Just been a meh weather month, and this weekend doesn't look to change that.

Our area is fine with rain and the reservoirs are good. Abnormally dry doesn't mean a drought.  

[Dan76]

Great... Flood watch extended 

[bluewave]

HREF has a widespread 1.5 to 2.5 potential. Localized 3-5 possible where the best training sets up. So a continuation of the heaviest summer rains coming after we get the 100° heat early in the season. Like our local version of a monsoon pattern.

 

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

73 / 67  sunny.  Clouds pushing into C/E PA and should move in between 9 - 1030 AM.  The we watch for where the heaviest showers/storms and rain which looks like a widespread 1 - 4 inches locally.    A brief reprieve from the unsettled weather tomorrow/Friday before a cloudier / stormy and potential 1-2 inch rain Sunday night into Monday.  Beyond there below normal through the 26th/   Moderation to normal 8/27 to close the month.

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 97 (1983)
NYC: 97 (1955)
LGA: 98 (1955)
JFK: 100 (1983)



Lows:

EWR: 52 (1949)
NYC: 55 (1949)
LGA: 58 (1949)
JFK: 55 (1949)


Historical:

 

1794: The "Battle of Fallen Timbers" took place on the Maumee River in northwestern Ohio at the sight of a windfall from a tornado. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1816: The “Year Without a Summer” continued as hard frost occurred in much of New England. Frost was seen as far south as Connecticut. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1863: A tornado struck Charlestown Navy yard, east Boston, MA. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

1886 - The 1886 Indianola Hurricane destroyed the town of Indianola, Texas and as such had a significant impact on the history and economic development of Texas. The storm ended the rivalry between Galveston and Indianola as the chief port of Texas. With the abandonment of Indianola and the unwillingness of the former residents to rebuild close to shore, Galveston became the essential Texan port until the 1900 Galveston Hurricane led to the rise of Houston as a major port. It was the fifth hurricane of the 1886 Atlantic hurricane season and one of the most intense hurricanes ever to hit the United States.

 

1904: A destructive, estimated F4 tornado moved east-southeast from 7 miles west-northwest of Willow Lake, SD through the town, and on into Bryant, SD. All buildings on at least three farms were blown away. One woman died in Bryant, as the tornado swept across the residential west side of town. Another man was killed just west of Willow Lake, as his farm house was scattered for miles. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1910 - The big blow up of forest fires finally came to an end in Idaho. A record dry August fueled 1736 fires which burned three million acres destroying six billion board feet of timber. The fires claimed the lives of 85 persons, 78 of which were fire fighters, and consumed the entire town of Wallace. The smoke spread a third of the way around the world producing some dark days in the U.S. and Canada. The forest fires prompted federal fire protection laws. (David Ludlum)

1928 - A tornado estimated at F4 intensity initially touched down in Winnebago County, Iowa, moved to Freeborn County, Minnesota, and hit the south side of Austin, MN. Five of the six deaths were in Austin with 60 injuries.

1939: On the 19th and 20th the remnants of a tropical storm dumped 14.81 inches of rain on Tuckerton, NJ on the 19th and 20th. That remains the state's greatest 24-hour rainfall at an official weather observation station. (Ref. Hurricane Map and NWS Monthly Weather Review )

1950: Canadian high pressure brought record low temperatures for the date. The following locations reported record low temperatures for August: Owen, WI: 28°, Blair, WI: 33°, Cresco, IA 34°, Platteville, WI: 38°, Trempealeau, WI: 40°, Alma, WI: 42°, Quincy, IL: 42° and Lynxville, WI: 44°. (Ref. Many Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)

1955: Diane flood highest in state since 1942; Wisconsin Ave. gauge at 8.75 ft Diane's Storm Track - NOAA. Gov.- National Hurricane Center

1969: Camille on the 20th had 27.00 rain in Nelson Co., VA. 24 hour record 113 drowned. No warning was issued but this would have made little difference since most were asleep as houses were destroyed. It was said that the rain was so heavy that birds, which have nostrils on the tops of their beaks, drowned while perched on trees. The James River in Richmond, VA at Westham crested at 24.8 feet or Richmond's 3rd worst flood. June of 1972 after Hurricane Agnes the crest was 28.62 feet which was Richmond's second worst flood, the worst flood was May 27th, 1771. After this event, the total damage from Camille was $1.4 billion dollars. Camille in Virginia - Wikipedia.org (Ref. More About Hurricane Camille)(Ref. for River level)

1983: The remnants of Hurricane Alicia brought heavy rain and flooding to parts of southern and central Oklahoma. Rainfall of 4 to 6 inches in less than 6 hours occurred in the Oklahoma City metropolitan area, the hardest hit part of the state. Major flooding occurred west of El Reno, while high water crept into a few buildings at the University of Oklahoma campus in Norman. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

1983: The temperature at Greenville, GA reached 112 °F to establish a state maximum temperature record for Georgia. (Ref. Lowest and Highest Temperatures for the 50 States)

1987 - Half a dozen cities in the Central Plains Region reported record high temperatures for the date, including Pueblo CO with a reading of 102 degrees, and Goodland KS with a high of 104 degrees. Hill City KS reached 106 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Sheridan, WY, reported a record hot temperature reading of 100 degrees. Evening thunderstorms produced golf ball size hail near Fortuna ND, and wind gusts to 70 mph near Webster SD. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Early morning thunderstorms produced heavy rain in southeast Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma, with up to six inches reported around Tulsa OK. Some roads in the Tulsa area were closed by water 10 to 12 feet deep. Evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Thunderstorms produced winds gusts to 75 mph in Major County OK, and hail two inches in diameter at Jennings KS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1992: Tropical Storm Andrew continued his struggle to maintain himself near 22N/63W as strong upper level winds from a cold upper low to its north sheared the convection. Despite Andrew's broad, poorly organized center with a lowest sea level pressure of only 1015 millibars or 29.97 inches of mercury, an Air Force reconnaissance plane still found sustained 80 mph winds at the 1500 foot level in the northeastern quadrant of the storm. Andrew managed to hold his own and once the wind shear abated late on the 21st, the storm began a rapid intensification curve. Andrew eventually became a strong category five hurricane that went on to devastate south Florida as a massive high pressure area built to Andrew's north and steered him westward.
Temperatures fall into the 30s in some rural areas in Michigan during the coldest August on record at Grand Rapids. Record lows for the day include 42° at Muskegon, MI and 43° at Grand Rapids, MI. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1997: One of the worst floods in history for parts of southern New Jersey occurred as heavy thunderstorms dumped torrential rain from Delaware into southeastern New Jersey. 11.12 inches of rain at Atlantic City, NJ shattered their record precipitation for the date and for any single date. The rains brought the total for the month to 15.74 inches which broke the old monthly record set in 1967. At the marina in Atlantic City, just 10 miles from the airport, only 2.60 inches fell. 3.17 inches of rain fell in one hour at the airport. The airport and almost every road in the area were closed. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

2001: Double jeopardy or triple jeopardy at South Carolina's Isle of Palms, lightning struck the CB antenna of a pickup. When the driver stepped out of the truck to check the damage another bolt hit the bed of the truck throwing him onto the highway but but he wasn't hit and survived.
(Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2007 Accord Publishing, USA) Two farmhands in a three-sided, metal, calf-feeding pen were killed by lightning on a farm near Remington in Fauquier County, VA. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History)

[SACRUS]

[SACRUS]

 

Today shouldnt be as bad as this years great Aunt 1997

 

1997: One of the worst floods in history for parts of southern New Jersey occurred as heavy thunderstorms dumped torrential rain from Delaware into southeastern New Jersey. 11.12 inches of rain at Atlantic City, NJ shattered their record precipitation for the date and for any single date. The rains brought the total for the month to 15.74 inches which broke the old monthly record set in 1967. At the marina in Atlantic City, just 10 miles from the airport, only 2.60 inches fell. 3.17 inches of rain fell in one hour at the airport. The airport and almost every road in the area were closed. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

 

https://www.nytimes.com/1997/08/22/nyregion/fast-moving-storms-flood-slice-of-southern-new-jersey.html

https://nj.gov/infobank/circular/eow73.htm

https://www.deseret.com/1997/8/22/19329753/n-j-towns-are-under-water-after-131-2-inches-of-rainfall/

[WE GOT HIM]

45 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

wow that is a lot of rain

[SnoSki14]

Models consistently nail us later today. Watch for spin ups with warm front nearby 

[weathermedic]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Models consistently nail us later today. Watch for spin ups with warm front nearby 

From OKX AFD:

While still low confidence, given high shear and little
instability, severe thunderstorms for northeast NJ, NYC and
western Long Island can not be completely ruled out. This would
be mainly an isolated damaging wind gust threat, but given
decent low level curvature in model soundings an isolated
tornado is also possible.

[MANDA]

WPC discussion heavy rainfall potential:

 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html

[donsutherland1]

The August 20, 2026 12z HREF:

[MANDA]

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The August 20, 2026 12z HREF:

Feeling FAIRLY confident that my area of NW NJ will escape the heaviest event totals.  Guidance has been targeting mainly along and east of I95 for max totals.  Will have to watch radar over the next several hours.  Key for NW NJ is where downstream convection starts to "ignite".  Hopefully it will be near or east of BWI/PHL and then lift and/or train NE leaving NW NJ with just more frontal related rainfall but still with heavy downpours.  Can deal with 1 or 2" out this way but 3-5" totals not good for this area.  Still very wet out my way.  Sitting at 5.5" for August to date here.

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, MANDA said:

Feeling FAIRLY confident that my area of NW NJ will escape the heaviest event totals.  Guidance has been targeting mainly along and east of I95 for max totals.  Will have to watch radar over the next several hours.  Key for NW NJ is where downstream convection starts to "ignite".  Hopefully it will be near or east of BWI/PHL and then lift and/or train NE leaving NW NJ with just more frontal related rainfall but still with heavy downpours.  Can deal with 1 or 2" out this way but 3-5" totals not good for this area.  Still very wet out my way.  Sitting at 5.5" for August to date here.

Hopefully, the guidance will be accurate and the heaviest rains will avoid your area and others that have recently experienced flooding.

[Snowlover11]

Congrats NYC, LI

[mgerb]

Noon Excessive Rainfall probs increased to the moderate range for PHL/NYC metro. 

[MANDA]

39 minutes ago, mgerb said:

Noon Excessive Rainfall probs increased to the moderate range for PHL/NYC metro. 

Associated discussion and Flash Flood Watch was also lifted slightly north and NW from earlier this morning.

 

[MANDA]

Rain has begun here.  A few brief heavy downpours but they moved through quickly.  Radar filling in.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, mgerb said:

Noon Excessive Rainfall probs increased to the moderate range for PHL/NYC metro. 

Latest HRRR dry slots most of that area

[Stormlover74]

Hrrr been bouncing around as usual

[NEG NAO]

 Severe Watch likely

[Brian5671]

[Brian5671]

12z euro is similiar to the HRRR N NJ/NYC/LI/S CT under the gun

[winterwx21]

I hope we get at least an inch. We've had almost nothing here since that severe t-storm with the hail 2 weeks ago. The ground is back to being very dry so we could use some heavy rain. 

[NEG NAO]

Severe Watch just south of Immediate NYC metro from Middlesex - Somerset Counties and points south...

[FPizz]

21 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I hope we get at least an inch. We've had almost nothing here since that severe t-storm with the hail 2 weeks ago. The ground is back to being very dry so we could use some heavy rain. 

You're 12 miles east of me, but I've had .60" of rain earlier this week.  I want the dry slot

[Ace Mahomes]

Odds i'll be able to ride my electric longboard home at 6pm in NYC?