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Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand


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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

I think we're going to see a pretty nasty cluster of thunderstorms moving northeast across CT into MA this evening. Should be a quite a bit of lightning with flash flooding as a concern. Not sure if there will be damaging wind potential throughout but I could see a pocket of wind damage into southwestern Hartford County from NJ, southeast NY, and through Fairfield County

maybe the storms ride along the boundary separating MU 60s vs 70+ dews? I'm with ya though def bullish on storms this evening / tonight 

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27 minutes ago, jlauderdal said:

For all of you dew lovers out there, go to the cornfields of the midwest during a heatwave and experience corn sweat, Heat Index 120+ with dews mid 80's.  

 

I lived in Martin County and worked in  Okeechobee/Indian River/St Lucie Counties and days like today remind of those days in FL; glad this is short lived.

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55 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

maybe the storms ride along the boundary separating MU 60s vs 70+ dews? I'm with ya though def bullish on storms this evening / tonight 

yup going to want to watch that dewpoint/MUCAPE gradient. 

I also have to say...things are evolving a good 3-4 hours earlier then I was anticipating. But this is where we stand with MUCAPE. Activity may come through early enough that the storms remain surfaced-based which could mean an increased risk for damaging wind gusts well into the region. But to go along with Scott's posts about the dewpoints, there is a significant drop off in MLCAPE values away from the coast as drier air mixes down. Have to see when/if they rebound 

image.png.6c9f42770e2e53d413e1cfaf91eafdad.png

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17 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Local STEIN SHIELD, like the local WEYMOUTH SHIELD!  :D

I know it is more long-term, but is it?  PVD is only -0.67" Y-T-D.  CON -0.55 Y-T-D and ORH +1.24.  Yes, BOS is a "hole" but that is quite local and it we know it is low by about 2" due to bad LEQ from the big S+ events this winter.  |

At what point does long-term drought "go away" as a weight for considering drought?  It is not defined anywhere I can find.

A *lot* of decisions about land and water management are made from the drought monitor, so it needs to reflect actual conditions accurately!

Back in the day, the Crop Moisture and Palmer Drought Severity Index were used and IMHO, these are better.  They parse things out instead of one lumped categorical map.  See attachments for current conditions.   I don't see any drought/dry issues in New England!
 

cmi.png

pdsi.png

Been my mantra for over a decade 

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2 hours ago, jlauderdal said:

For all of you dew lovers out there, go to the cornfields of the midwest during a heatwave and experience corn sweat, Heat Index 120+ with dews mid 80's.  

 

I did soil sampling for my Internship with USDA and know exactly what you mean. Mid August is no joke near the coast for high 90s over upper 70s in corn fields 8 foot tall. Lol I did get lost for an hour in a 100 acre field once. Came out as sticky as cotton candy from the heat and corn.

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5 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I think we're going to see a pretty nasty cluster of thunderstorms moving northeast across CT into MA this evening. Should be a quite a bit of lightning with flash flooding as a concern. Not sure if there will be damaging wind potential throughout but I could see a pocket of wind damage into southwestern Hartford County from NJ, southeast NY, and through Fairfield County

HRRR kills everything once it reaches the border. Hope you are right. 

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