Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Define “soaker”. To me it’s more than like 1.5”.

Our standards seem to be getting high if 1.5” of rain is the barometer of worthy rain.

A half inch will soak in nicely.

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not seeing that. Everyone will rain but only a very narrow area will get anything of bigger significance. There will be a small zone that trains .. but it’s nothing widespread 

Just be clear... Are you saying Wiz is in correct in his analysis of what the parameters will look like overhead from late tonight through tomorrow? Or are you saying you can see what he's looking at but they won't produce the outcome he is expecting?  

[dendrite]

1.5” is a seasonal total here

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, FXWX said:

Just be clear... Are you saying Wiz is in correct in his analysis of what the parameters will look like overhead from late tonight through tomorrow? Or are you saying you can see what he's looking at but they won't produce the outcome he is expecting?  

I am saying don’t see widespread big rain amounts / flooding etc . This isn’t that type of setup 

[dendrite]

Some weenie in NY ridin’ along in his automobile trolling mPing with 5” hail obs, blowing dust, and overflowing rivers. Hate to see it.

[Ginx snewx]

Beautiful sea breeze but cloudy. Pool feels fantastic 

[FXWX]

33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I am saying don’t see widespread big rain amounts / flooding etc . This isn’t that type of setup 

Got ya.... Duration argues against widespread flooding issues but parameters, as stated by Wiz, are in place for some localize issues... It's almost always about intensity rates and confidence is rarely high in these situations.  The low/mid level moisture surge could easily produce some surprise heavier than modeled zones and forecasters should not sleep on "potential".

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Got ya.... Duration argues against widespread flooding issues but parameters, as stated by Wiz, are in place for some localize issues... It's almost always about intensity rates and confidence is rarely high in these situations.  The low/mid level moisture surge could easily produce some surprise heavier than modeled zones and forecasters should not sleep on "potential".

I can totally see a narrow zone or a few towns getting 3-5” but that would be combined with both the morning stuff and if anything fires in the afternoon 

[Supernovice]

1 hour ago, FXWX said:

Got ya.... Duration argues against widespread flooding issues but parameters, as stated by Wiz, are in place for some localize issues... It's almost always about intensity rates and confidence is rarely high in these situations.  The low/mid level moisture surge could easily produce some surprise heavier than modeled zones and forecasters should not sleep on "potential".

Don’t give our resident moron the oxygen he needs. Just ignore his ‘weather related’ posts like everyone else and he will slowly….ever so slowly, go away. 

[CoastalWx]

5 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Define “soaker”. To me it’s more than like 1.5”.

 

I don’t see any widespread support for that. Maybe some town in western CT gets more than that, but good luck guessing where and if that happens 

That’s plenty of rain. 

[Prismshine Productions]

[mention=33]CoastalWx[/mention] all excited w/ the leaves changing already I bet!  Now it is just the "540 thickness line watch" for first time! 
 

Wtf already?!

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[CoastalWx]

18 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Wtf already?!

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk
 

There’s always a stressed tree or two that do that.

[powderfreak]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There’s always a stressed tree or two that do that.

Yeah nothing abnormal.  We’ve seen a few up here.

[dendrite]

There’s a large maple down the road here that gets 1/2 color in July and loses most of its leaves by the end of August.

[Ginx snewx]

48 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah nothing abnormal.  We’ve seen a few up here.

That's not stress though. Oh definitely on the downswing due to light differences. Buds are swollen with lots of white hairs too always a early sign to remind us of a not to far off seasonal change 

[dendrite]

18z models are pretty wet here. We pray.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, dendrite said:

There’s a large maple down the road here that gets 1/2 color in July and loses most of its leaves by the end of August.

Our swamp maples are changing by the end of the month a good month before anything else. Last night was the first night I really noticed the night being earlier. Mornings were lost last week 

[powderfreak]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

That's not stress though. Oh definitely on the downswing due to light differences. Buds are swollen with lots of white hairs too always a early sign to remind us of a not to far off seasonal change 

I dunno, tree didn’t look that healthy.  Some bare branches mixed in where those colored leaves are.

[Damage In Tolland]

25 minutes ago, dendrite said:

18z models are pretty wet here. We pray.

 

[Torch Tiger]

Hopefully a widespread 1"+ for all

[Damage In Tolland]

TFlizz getting a soaking shower already to kick the party off 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Wouldn’t mind if it missed a bit here.  We had 5” last Thursday and the rain will delay the road project here.  (Plus it cools off our pool)

[ineedsnow]

3 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Wtf already?!

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk
 

 

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

There’s always a stressed tree or two that do that.

Even saw a few around here.. ill snap a Pic tomorrow if I remember

[HoarfrostHubb]

Nothing unusual with a few trees flipping early.  

[dendrite]

HRRR keeps the heaviest BAF-MHT south. Another valley 8” spot in CT. 

[vortex95]

9 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Rainfall rates will be quite impressive tomorrow and the initial round of rain is going to be on the widespread side and then we see what we can develop during the day in terms of convection. You have a stout southerly LLJ into the region with 8850 dewpoints +16 to +17C and PWAT values between 2.20" and 2.40". There is no capping and you have the LFC right about the same height as the LCL. The radar is going to be lit up with rain and continuous development of downpours and embedded thunder throughout the day and this will train across a large area. 

 

HRRR and RRFS are in good agreement swaths up to 4" both SNE and NNE.  Given how local media really leaned into drought conditions, this should silence them, EXCEPT BOS prop is still -8.45" for the yea (2" too low from the snow LEQ issues), while PVD/PWM are less than -3" and ORH/much of central and western new England are AOA Y-T-D!  And the HRRR/RRFS seem to screw BOS again for sig rain.  Gonna be a microdrought area soon!  But no real impact since draining downstream and reservoirs to the W are filling up.  Local drought is not the same as widespread drought.  And short-term drought everywhere is not an issue now, it just long-term drought for deficits.  I'm sure everyone's gardens large and small are doing just fine after the wet July, as one example!