Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand

[vortex95]

PT time for @weatherwiz b/c 2% spinner risk for CT now!  I can see that.  Even though winds are unidirectional sfc-aloft, they are quite strong at 925 and 850. 30-50 kt W to E from central CT to ern MA.  Anything over 30 kt means spinner business.  30 -50 kt at 850 as well.  Attached is GFS sounding for ern CT at 18z.  38 kt 0-6 km shear is enoughs for supercell and 30 kt 0-1 km shear is excellent for spinner potential.  HRRR shows large areas of 0-3 km CAPE 100+ so there is your low-level stretching.  Classic tropical tor set up where best winds, relatively speaking, are at low-levels.

[vortex95]

Key West spout 7/24
https://x.com/deZabedrosky/status/2081401272578531578

That's @weatherwiz on the dock letting the the vortex come over him!

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About as classic "true" waterspout as you can get.  Thin tall tube, slow moving, no rain, LTG, or wall cloud present, just TCU.

Notice that after the base vortex moves over the dock, it re-emerges more intense and focused.  This happens sometimes for spouts when the first come ashore.  The rapid increase in friction can strengthen the base temporarily
.

[Modfan2]

Very S FL like morning, low 75F. So far it looks like Congrats area 84 and west? 

[ineedsnow]

We flood!! 

[Damage In Tolland]

Guess who whined their way to a Stein buster. Dendy!