Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Define “soaker”. To me it’s more than like 1.5”.

Our standards seem to be getting high if 1.5” of rain is the barometer of worthy rain.

A half inch will soak in nicely.

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not seeing that. Everyone will rain but only a very narrow area will get anything of bigger significance. There will be a small zone that trains .. but it’s nothing widespread 

Just be clear... Are you saying Wiz is in correct in his analysis of what the parameters will look like overhead from late tonight through tomorrow? Or are you saying you can see what he's looking at but they won't produce the outcome he is expecting?  

[dendrite]

1.5” is a seasonal total here

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, FXWX said:

Just be clear... Are you saying Wiz is in correct in his analysis of what the parameters will look like overhead from late tonight through tomorrow? Or are you saying you can see what he's looking at but they won't produce the outcome he is expecting?  

I am saying don’t see widespread big rain amounts / flooding etc . This isn’t that type of setup 

[dendrite]

Some weenie in NY ridin’ along in his automobile trolling mPing with 5” hail obs, blowing dust, and overflowing rivers. Hate to see it.

[Ginx snewx]

Beautiful sea breeze but cloudy. Pool feels fantastic 

[FXWX]

33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I am saying don’t see widespread big rain amounts / flooding etc . This isn’t that type of setup 

Got ya.... Duration argues against widespread flooding issues but parameters, as stated by Wiz, are in place for some localize issues... It's almost always about intensity rates and confidence is rarely high in these situations.  The low/mid level moisture surge could easily produce some surprise heavier than modeled zones and forecasters should not sleep on "potential".

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Got ya.... Duration argues against widespread flooding issues but parameters, as stated by Wiz, are in place for some localize issues... It's almost always about intensity rates and confidence is rarely high in these situations.  The low/mid level moisture surge could easily produce some surprise heavier than modeled zones and forecasters should not sleep on "potential".

I can totally see a narrow zone or a few towns getting 3-5” but that would be combined with both the morning stuff and if anything fires in the afternoon