Significant Severe Weather Event Possible for NNE on July 14 into July 15, 2026

[weatherwiz]

Obviously this isn't going to impact many posters here and the population density isn't as high, however, this potential is deserving of its own thread. The potential exists for a rather significant severe weather event either late Tuesday afternoon or evening/overnight across northern New England. 

Daytime temperatures are expected to climb well into the 80's within the region and probably some spot 90's with dewpoints pushing into the lower 70's. This combination under the presence of an elevated-mixed layer characterized by mid-level lapse rates on order of 7+ C/Km will result in an extremely unstable atmosphere with MLCAPE values pushing or exceeding 3000 J/KG. While the timing of this event may be more evening or overnight, instability values will drop off due to the loss of daytime heating, however, MLCAPE values should remain around 1500+  J/KG. 

With the region on the northern periphery of a stout mid-level ridge that is centered over the northern Plains, strong flow will overspread the region with 60-70+ knots of 500mb flow, aiding in the potential for bulk shear values exceeding 50 knots. In addition, a strong surface cold front will be diving south. 

The combination of instability and wind shear ahead of the approaching cold front will set the stage for the development of one, or perhaps multiple clusters or lines of thunderstorms across Quebec which propagate across northern New England late in the day or during the evening or overnight. Given the ingredients, the potential exists for a concentrated swath of damaging wind gusts (perhaps some significant wind gusts), and if any supercells develop there will be a risk for large-to-very large hail, and even the risk for a few tornadoes (though this is largely dependent on storm mode and whether surface winds can remain more southerly ahead of the front. 

[powderfreak]

I’d take it.

[WxWatcher007]

Nammy is hellacious 

[mreaves]

6 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I’d take it.

 

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Nammy is hellacious 

No flooding please. 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Nammy is hellacious 

That’s a solid line sagging south.

[CT Valley Snowman]

Starting to get interested in this up in Maine on vacation.  Being in the woods at a cabin surrounded by huge trees. Easy to lose power at this location.  

[jbenedet]

MCS type look down this way. They tend to hold on longer than guidance and are poorly modeled (trajectory, intensity) at very short lead times if they get going. Kind of a mind of its own type deal…
 

Would expect a big fizzle here on the seacoast but with northerly flow, anticipating at least some hefty downpours, which would be nice—could use the rain.

[wxeyeNH]

Wow, SPC already in  enhanced up in NNE

[weatherwiz]

6z/13 NAM bufkit for BTV. About as impressive as an environment as you'll see around here out ahead of storms 

[CoastalWx]

Impressive as model. All around. Gonna be some nasty stuff from Northern Vermont to Maine.

[Modfan2]

Does it hold together for SNE? Back door Derecho for DIT?

[CoastalWx]

24 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Does it hold together for SNE? Back door Derecho for DIT?

No