July Discobs 2026

[pazzo83]

did you guys see this?  legitimately insane: 

 

This is like Charlotte or Atlanta having a low of 80F in January lol.  Seems like it's indirectly tied to the developing Niño - apparently related to some insane snowfall in the Andes (because of the juiced-up Pacific) leading to downsloping winds into Argentina, which caused this.

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 21Z NBM thru Day 2

Looks very familiar.  Just like the forecast and/or the result for every event the past 4 years  

[wxdude64]

Big thunderstorm rolled thru here around 4 am with lots of CTG lightning and booming thunder. Not much wind (26 mph gust) but picked up 1.07" of rain, which beat previous daily record of 0.99" from 1984. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Clouds. Our most common failure mode. Hope we can clear out today.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z HRRR thru today.

[Eskimo Joe]

Do we want to put the obs, etc. in this thread today, or the severe wx thread? I vote for here.

[Eskimo Joe]

If you liked the 11z HRRR, you'll love the 12z HRRR. Legit squall line.

[IronTy]

The Huntingtown split was in effect yet again this morning.  Feels extra gross out too.  

[Eskimo Joe]

Looking upstream, if we can get these debris clouds over West Virginia to fade out, we should be okay for at least some thunder. The cluster of storms coming through Columbus, OH right now has an uptick in CG and seems to be drifting southeast. Wonder if that's our show for later?

[canderson]

21 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

If you liked the 11z HRRR, you'll love the 12z HRRR. Legit squall line.

Mind posting? On mobile so can’t look easily 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, canderson said:

Mind posting? On mobile so can’t look easily 

Sure thing. 12z HRRR:

• Around 3/4pm - Puts a couple of decent pre-frontal discrete cells from MDT south to DC, looks like one cell gets beefy east of Baltimore along maybe a bay breeze boundary?
• Around 4 - 6pm - Develops a respectable line of storms along I-81 and runs it from MDT down to RIC around sunset. 

That would be a solid slight risk day in these parts. If folks hold their expectations to that, then no one would be dissappointed. 

[canderson]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Sure thing. 12z HRRR:

• Around 3/4pm - Puts a couple of decent pre-frontal discrete cells from MDT south to DC, looks like one cell gets beefy east of Baltimore along maybe a bay breeze boundary?
• Around 4 - 6pm - Develops a respectable line of storms along I-81 and runs it from MDT down to RIC around sunset. 

That would be a solid slight risk day in these parts. If folks hold their expectations to that, then no one would be dissappointed. 

Many thanks! 

[Eskimo Joe]

13 minutes ago, canderson said:

Many thanks! 

Then the 13z HRRR comes in and is back to total garbage for everyone.

[87storms]

31 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Then the 13z HRRR comes in and is back to total garbage for everyone.

This is Frederick’s summer. The current humidity is getting me hyped.

[Eskimo Joe]

Already a confirmed tornado in northeast PA. Several warnings up towards NY. Dynamics FTW.

[IronTy]

You don't fool me, weather.  I can see the SoMD split teeing up already.  

[Interstate]

Lots of thunder to my north here in 21057

[Jrlg1181]

The customary 0.02 for today....

[mitchnick]

1.2" from the 2 thunderstorms that just passed through here. Looks like plenty more for most to come.

[EastCoast NPZ]

It's rained twice today and I have a grand total of .01" to show for it.  

[Weather Will]

Got lucky, heavier shower formed over me; over .33 so far and still heavy rain falling.

edit:  about an inch so far with rain still falling lightly.

[wxdude64]

Had a storm roll thru earlier around 3 pm, little over 1/2 inch in the gauge. 

[aldie 22]

24 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

It's rained twice today and I have a grand total of .01" to show for it.  

. 04 here...move north lol 

[coolio]

Looks like the 'ol DC beltway split.

[87storms]

The 270 split continues to be a powerhouse storm magnet. I’ve been missing the good stuff just to my south so far, but looks like some showers are teeing up. Had a light rain shower move thru earlier that dampened things.

[Interstate]

Biggest storms are going to slide to my south again.

[RickinBaltimore]

It is absolutely pouring down rain right now in Dundalk. 

[Weather Will]

Frederick-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-
Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest
Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast
Harford-
617 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central, northeast, and
  northern Maryland, including the following areas, in central
  Maryland, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast
  Montgomery, Northwest Howard and Northwest Montgomery. In north
  central Maryland, Carroll and Frederick. In northeast Maryland,
  Cecil. In northern Maryland, Northern Baltimore, Northwest
  Harford, Southeast Harford and Southern Baltimore.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
  Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Extensive
  street flooding and flooding of creeks and rivers are possible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Repeated very heavy rain may result in areas of 3 to 6 inches
    of rainfall and considerable flash flooding this evening.
  - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety
    and preparedness information

[Weather Will]

Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
619 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southwestern Frederick County in northwestern Virginia...
  Southeastern Hampshire County in eastern West Virginia...

* Until 645 PM EDT.

* At 619 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Star Tannery, or 13 miles north of Strasburg,
  moving east at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown,
           flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur.
           Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is
           likely.

* This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
  southwestern Frederick County in northwestern Virginia and
  southeastern Hampshire Counties in eastern West Virginia, including
  the following locations... High View Manor, Wilde Acres, and Lehew.

[BlizzardNole]

Just got home after visiting away and it's dusty and dry so I watered my plants.  P&C forecast thru tomorrow night has 0.5 to 0.75; 0.1 to 0.25; 0.1 to 0.25.  My formula is take the minimum and divide in half so 0.35 total expected.  Won't be surprised at a shutout though.