Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[vortex95]

10 hours ago, BrianW said:

 

So the opposite of a storm surge!  CoastalWx really gets into this "backwards erosion."  Several years ago, this happened on Cape Cod, and he was like "what the...?"

[Torch Tiger]

17 minutes ago, kdxken said:

A short 15 days away.

sounds like.....

[vortex95]

9 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Not really sure how you can attribute this to ENSO. I mean there are just synoptic fronts moving through and getting heavy rains from the warm front and then scattered convection out ahead of the cold front. Unless there is an argument these are more common during summers with a developing EL Nino but these setups aren't uncommon during the summer months.

Sorry for the rant, here, but Wxwiz's statement deserves more detail using recent and further back factual history.  

El Nino is a lazy blame here.  Can one really say this very wet period on South Coast on it?  What about ern MA w/ its long-tern precip deficit and svr drought conditions?  What happened to that?  Did emerging El Nino conditions cause that as well?

Going back to BDR record wet Julys that was posted earlier as an example, #1 is 1971 which was weak La Nina, #3 is 2021 and that was mdt La Nina.  #4 was in 1988 and that was strong La Nina.  Oh, but #2 is 2026 and strong El Nino is imminent, so that means it was the cause, esp. b/c it is in the here and now!  Vapid and linear thinking.

Are we to believe the El Nino singled out the South Coast and has left BOS high and dry, relatively speaking, and even more so NNE this month?  What about how wet was in NNE the previous months and SNE was ripped of?

Yes, BOS finally has an above avg rainfall month, but what, just quickly dismiss the long-term dryness that local media can't leave alone?  Some ppl just turn on a dime here, whichever way the winds blows, and use the fact the public has short-term memory/attention spans.

Also, El Nino direct effects show most in the winter for the CONUS, and most apparent for the precip in the subtropics this part of the globe.

See the problem here?  Some just make simplistic 1-1 correlations w/ nothing to back it up.  Content on social media, and truth/facts be damned!   Anyone can speculate, opine, or conjecture, and that's fine in itself, but too often these days it gets treated as fact or "will happen." 

[HimoorWx]

Looking west from Mystic. 

[vortex95]

9 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Certainly may see a few localized strong storms east of the river today 

 

[vortex95]

8 hours ago, dendrite said:

Nah I’m just building up resistance now

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

My personal storm.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

You don't say. 

 

 

Let us know why you left out the text here. You’ve long been the laughing stock of the board and this just reaffirms that.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 hours ago, kdxken said:

I thought you were exaggerating. It does look bleak.

Looks like a dud Tuesday Wednesday Thursday 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Quick .51 from that storm 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

0.55

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Is that a cut off low next week? What is that?

I love how it’s rained like two days this summer but the entire week next week looks like a borderline washout 

[dendrite]

2 hours ago, vortex95 said:

What site gives the stats for climate location like this?  Good stuff!

Top is ISU auto data plotter app. Bottom is from the NWS climo sections…NOWdata I believe.

[dendrite]

Feels like another late summer night

Breezy and 63/53

[Boston Bulldog]

46 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Is that a cut off low next week? What is that?

I love how it’s rained like two days this summer but the entire week next week looks like a borderline washout 

Blocky look, but with that complexity we are still far away from any confidence in what that will actually look like in the second half of the week. Higher than normal probs of bad weather I guess  

[tunafish]

49 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Feels like another late summer night

Breezy and 63/53

The woods are getting that late summer nighttime sound.  A low buzz that eventually builds into a cacophony another 30 days from now.