Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[vortex95]

10 hours ago, BrianW said:

 

So the opposite of a storm surge!  CoastalWx really gets into this "backwards erosion."  Several years ago, this happened on Cape Cod, and he was like "what the...?"

[Torch Tiger]

17 minutes ago, kdxken said:

A short 15 days away.

sounds like.....

[vortex95]

9 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Not really sure how you can attribute this to ENSO. I mean there are just synoptic fronts moving through and getting heavy rains from the warm front and then scattered convection out ahead of the cold front. Unless there is an argument these are more common during summers with a developing EL Nino but these setups aren't uncommon during the summer months.

Sorry for the rant, here, but Wxwiz's statement deserves more detail using recent and further back factual history.  

El Nino is a lazy blame here.  Can one really say this very wet period on South Coast on it?  What about ern MA w/ its long-tern precip deficit and svr drought conditions?  What happened to that?  Did emerging El Nino conditions cause that as well?

Going back to BDR record wet Julys that was posted earlier as an example, #1 is 1971 which was weak La Nina, #3 is 2021 and that was mdt La Nina.  #4 was in 1988 and that was strong La Nina.  Oh, but #2 is 2026 and strong El Nino is imminent, so that means it was the cause, esp. b/c it is in the here and now!  Vapid and linear thinking.

Are we to believe the El Nino singled out the South Coast and has left BOS high and dry, relatively speaking, and even more so NNE this month?  What about how wet was in NNE the previous months and SNE was ripped of?

Yes, BOS finally has an above avg rainfall month, but what, just quickly dismiss the long-term dryness that local media can't leave alone?  Some ppl just turn on a dime here, whichever way the winds blows, and use the fact the public has short-term memory/attention spans.

Also, El Nino direct effects show most in the winter for the CONUS, and most apparent for the precip in the subtropics this part of the globe.

See the problem here?  Some just make simplistic 1-1 correlations w/ nothing to back it up.  Content on social media, and truth/facts be damned!   Anyone can speculate, opine, or conjecture, and that's fine in itself, but too often these days it gets treated as fact or "will happen." 

[HimoorWx]

Looking west from Mystic. 

[vortex95]

9 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Certainly may see a few localized strong storms east of the river today 

 

[vortex95]

8 hours ago, dendrite said:

Nah I’m just building up resistance now

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

My personal storm.