Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[OrangeCTWX]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The FF risk is wherever the warm front  sets up. You aren’t getting 10” of deformation rain on 700 warm front. 

Wasn’t there a storm , maybe it was the remnants of IDA? That had the same thing.  Flooding rains right where the warm front was.

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Friend Kris sent this

Just came southbound on Route 32 and I have never seen anything damage wise like I just saw. It looks like a tornado went through the entire stretch from the 32 connector all the way up to Connecticut College, powerlines down, trees down everywhere. Roads are blocked off in some places and meanwhile at my house there’s not even a leaf that fell off a tree lol

Never say never, but I think this was good ol' fashioned straight line wind. That was a textbook bowing signature. You had a great signal for a rear inflow jet.

People are always surprised when they see real wind damage.

[OceanStWx]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The FF risk is wherever the warm front  sets up. You aren’t getting 10” of deformation rain on 700 warm front. 

I've seen enough guidance now though to think that 7+" is a reasonable max somewhere in the area. 

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I've seen enough guidance now though to think that 7+" is a reasonable max somewhere in the area. 

Dam, I hope it isn’t here, don’t need that much water, but most guidance is 4 plus here easily.  
 

What’s causing this? Not too often does a summertime system produce all day long plus rains in summer time. 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I've seen enough guidance now though to think that 7+" is a reasonable max somewhere in the area. 

Oh for sure. Someone is getting lit. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Dam, I hope it isn’t here, don’t need that much water, but most guidance is 4 plus here easily.  

You get big damage last night?

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You get big damage last night?

North end of town did…trees down everywhere- we missed it by literally a 2-3 mile margin. I’m glad..didn’t want the AC going down.  But it got stormy and nasty. Picked up alot of rain. 

[ineedsnow]

we wish we were here 

[WinterWolf]

14 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

we wish we were here 

Some may pick up the rain as if it were a tropical system…if guidance is on to anything. 

[weatherwiz]

26 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Never say never, but I think this was good ol' fashioned straight line wind. That was a textbook bowing signature. You had a great signal for a rear inflow jet.

People are always surprised when they see real wind damage.

I think I saw vortex95 mention this but the reflectivity gradient along the leading edge of those storms was about as textbook as you'll see for these parts, hell that would even be impressive anywhere else. Anytime you see a super strong wind signature like that I guess there is the risk for a brief spinup but I don't think there was anything really pointing towards a tornado or rotation. Velocity signatures on all radar sites was pretty evident with straight-line wind signatures and if you look at the environment, there really wasn't anything supportive for tornado formation. Just a textbook classic setup for straightline winds and widespread given the development of a cold pool. 

[dendrite]

45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The FF risk is wherever the warm front  sets up. You aren’t getting 10” of deformation rain on 700 warm front. 

What about ratios?

[Typhoon Tip]

Euro almost pulls the rug ... priceless if so.  It actually does for N of the Pike almost entirely on this run.   

I was gonna say ... another mitigating factor is that the models seem to over-amplify everything they ever handle these days that's beyond 48 hours.  This is repeatingly bearing out in results ... yet, funny, so few ever mention this when the next catastrophic model Rembrandt pushes the d-drip button. LOL  Seriously though, there seems to a built in automatic attenuation.  Whatever they've been pimping in the middle and extended range [enter goober here], either partial Charlie Browning if not a miss.   

While that's going on ... I'm separately leery anyway, whenever the models attempt to hone a mesobeta scale ( between meso and synoptic - ) sized region like this, middle range or not.

If that's not all enough, why?   There's almost nothing in the height evolution at 500 mb that suggests anything at all should be going on underneath... yet all hell's going nuts and no one's raising an eye-brow.  Okay... I'll go along, but if this  

It's a trigger happy air mass with lingering PWAT in the region and a shallow boundary offering a reason to lift. It's got that goin for it.  It may not need a lot of forcing to rain disproportionately heavy

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

We got between 1-2” last night.  So we aren’t all that dry here currently. 

Jeez. I’ve had ~2” total since June 1st.

[CT Valley Snowman]

Definitely a bit questionable the further north you get into MA.  Right now I'd favor somewhere sothern half of CT for highest amounts and watch the trends.  Up here in west central Maine where I am for vacation it will be a shutout.  

[moneypitmike]

3 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Last night, the wealthy folks with houses on New Silver Beach had themselves a fire a fireworks competition.  The lingering smoke inversion must’ve lasted 30 minutes. 
I was telling my wife,  between the three families setting them off, they must’ve spent a combine $20,000 on fireworks.

   

 

Do it right.

[moneypitmike]

3 hours ago, OrangeCTWX said:

At least this should put an end to any drought talks in Connecticut lol 

Nah......

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Jeez. I’ve had ~2” total since June 1st.

Ya, we’ve gotten lucky with the showers here lately Bob.  So it hasn’t been to dry here. 

[WxWatcher007]

Should’ve told my wife to send me to the Pacific for my birthday

[tamarack]

3 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Never say never, but I think this was good ol' fashioned straight line wind. That was a textbook bowing signature. You had a great signal for a rear inflow jet.

People are always surprised when they see real wind damage.

40 years ago in Northern Maine, straight line winds flattened about 600 acres, a swath 4 miles long running SW to NE.  It started a bit north of (Aroostook) Eagle Lake and ended by blowing spruce trees into Square Lake.  I've no idea whether the folks from CAR came out to look and report, but from what I heard and saw the wind probably reached 90-100 mph.
(That storm was late in season for that area - Sept 30.  Ironically, 5 years later to the day they had 3-5" snow.)

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Congrats Brett on whining to a 3K NAM Jack. 

Sell. We’ve been in a nice stretch of finding every way imaginable to minimize rainfall here, including last night.

Weve seen these setups a couple times over the last 5-6 summers. CT and more specifically western and south Connecticut will get big rains, and we’ll be fighting to keep the roads damp here

[Damage In Tolland]

All I know is the 4 CT northern counties especially northern halves,  are dry to very dry . There’s been less than 3” of rain since June 1 in most places . With wagons mainly south on guidance today , I still think coastal CT down to Philly are going to be where any issues might be with coastal CT being less at risk than NYC to Philly/ SE PA.

[ineedsnow]

18z NAM gets alot of SNE with 3 plus

[ineedsnow]

3k mostly gets CT 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

3k mostly gets CT 

There’s my 7”’s. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

There’s my 7”’s. 

He only posts the high models . You know how it works . Not likely 

[Typhoon Tip]

I wish Brain would put an AI filter of sorts that screens content ... just before the it commits to post, and if it sees 'NAM' in context to 3" of rain or 30" of snow, it bounces the post back to the poster with a message that reads 

     "THE NAM HAS A N-W BIAS!"

[dendrite]

19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wish Brain would put an AI filter of sorts that screens content ... just before the it commits to post, and if it sees 'NAM' in context to 3" of rain or 30" of snow, it bounces the post back to the poster with a message that reads 

     "THAN NAM HAS A N-W BIAS!"

It will be in the model graveyard soon with the LFM, MRF, AVN, NGM, and ETA.

RIP

[Baroclinic Zone]

Low to mid 80s here today. Pleasant respite from the last 5 days. Humidity has dropped today as well, so this evening is magnificent to be outside.

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Should’ve told my wife to send me to the Pacific for my birthday

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Extreme Wind Warning
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
629 AM ChST Mon Jul 6 2026

The National Weather Service in Tiyan has issued a

* Extreme Wind Warning for...
  Rota...

* Until 915 AM ChST.

* At 629 AM ChST, Doppler radar indicated catastrophic winds
  associated with eyewall passage of Super Typhoon Bavi (09W)
  approaching from the east, are imminent over the entirety of Rota.
  THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION! TAKE
  COVER NOW! Venturing outside can result in DEATH from flying
  projectiles. Unreinforced structures will be destroyed. Utility
  poles and associated power lines will be down, posing a risk to
  life. DO NOT VENTURE OUT INTO THE RELATIVE CALM OF THE EYE AS IT
  PASSES OVER THE AREA. Extreme winds will soon return on the back
  side of Super Typhoon Bavi.

* Locations impacted include...
  Sinapalo, Songsong, Annex F, Tenetu, I Chenchon, Liyu, Ginalangan
  (Chudan), Taimama, Tatgua, Matpo, Gampapa, As Niebes (Nieves),
  Talo, Makmak, Agatasi (Payapai), Lempanai, Gayaugan (Kaan), Gagani,
  Mananana and Finata.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread destructive winds in excess of 150 mph are expected.

TAKE COVER NOW! Treat these imminent extreme winds as if a tornado
was approaching and move immediately to the safe room in your
shelter. Take action now to protect your life!

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He only posts the high models . You know how it works . Not likely 

Ya…I don’t want 6-7” of rain.