July 2026

[NEG NAO]

looks like there is going to be a break in the action for an undetermined amount of time south to north through central and north jersey soon

[Stormlover74]

280 west practically a white out

[BobbyHolikWillFindYou]

At this point I'd rather camp in my cubicle instead of braving the roads.

[Stormlover74]

Its nuts. I'm in West Orange and deluge continues with ctg strikes every few seconds. 

[mgerb]

10 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Finally a little downpour here but it lasted only 90 seconds, lol. 

It was literally about 30 seconds here. 0.01" for the day. 

[Prue11]

This will be a bust for most of LI

[495weatherguy]

Just now, Prue11 said:

This will be a bust for most of LI

Over hyped again 

[Prue11]

1 minute ago, 495weatherguy said:

Over hyped again 

Yeah I’m expecting zero precip 

[Snowlover11]

Instant flooding here, one of the sewers is overwhelmed. Yard is just running off with water.

[Rmine1]

2 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

This will be a bust for most of LI

100%. I suspect Upton will make major adjustments to their forecast next update 

[Rmine1]

2 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

Yeah I’m expecting zero precip 

Zero is a stretch, but 2-4 inches is absolutely off the table 

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

Yeah I’m expecting zero precip 

It’ll rain here but it’ll happen tonight late and tomorrow. The stuff today will obviously miss us west. And it won’t be anything like west of the city.  It is what it is and typical for summer but I don’t think many want flooded basements. I think it’s pretty safe for Upton to remove the flood watches east of the city. 

[SnowGoose69]

The area consolidating now over W  NJ and E PA near ABE is what most likely could hit NYC but even that might pass north of them...would need to see more activity fill in down towards PHL

[Snowlover11]

My gutter fell off and is flooding all my mulch around

[FPizz]

[Stormlover74]

10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The area consolidating now over W  NJ and E PA near ABE is what most likely could hit NYC but even that might pass north of them...would need to see more activity fill in down towards PHL

Nam seems to think there will be more activity to the south but hrrr keeps it over Delaware 

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nam seems to think there will be more activity to the south but hrrr keeps it over Delaware 

The HRRR has not been very good with this event so far.

[NJwx85]

5 minutes ago, FPizz said:

3 tornado watches for parts of NJ in less than a week.

[Mr Senior]

Got hammered once again here in North Haledon, NJ (Eastern Passaic County) with 2.04". Rain started here about 3:30, which became heavy by 3:35 and torrential by 3:45. Lots of thunder and lightning. Highest gust was about 18 - 20 mph. All this after receiving 2.55" yesterday. As of 4:43 pm, the 2 day rainfall is 4.60".

[BoulderWX]

.65” with the first round 

[Stormlover74]

Roads closed all over essex county. Saw a mudslide

[jm1220]

Our rain east of the city comes around midnight with the front/developing low moving east. Might be a quick line of decaying showers, might be more substantial storms but it's moving east and not stalling like today over NJ. Maybe here and there could be flash flooding if it's the substantial storms but it seems like it's in and right out. Then tomorrow looks like on and off instability showers.

[Wannabehippie]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Roads closed all over essex county. Saw a mudslide

Hopefully no one was trapped by the mudslide.

[donsutherland1]

A storm will bring rain and thunderstorms to the region through tomorrow. A storm total 2.00"-4.00" rainfall is likely, along with locally higher amounts. A general 0.50"-1.50" is likely across most of Long Island.

Following the storm, Thursday and Friday will see a continuation of below normal readings. Temperatures could return to near seasonable levels for the weekend.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.2°C for the week centered around July 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.92°C. The ongoing strong El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer.

The SOI was -24.19 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.191 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 99% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.3° (1.2° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.2° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[Wannabehippie]

I went out for a brief walk around 2:50pm today.  I heard a loud rumble of thunder, jogged/ran home. By the time I got upstairs to my condo it was pouring outside.

 

[Wannabehippie]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

A storm will bring rain and thunderstorms to the region through tomorrow. A storm total 2.00"-4.00" rainfall is likely, along with locally higher amounts. A general 0.50"-1.50" is likely across most of Long Island.

Following the storm, Thursday and Friday will see a continuation of below normal readings. Temperatures could return to near seasonable levels for the weekend.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.2°C for the week centered around July 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.92°C. The ongoing strong El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer.

The SOI was -24.19 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.191 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 99% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.3° (1.2° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.2° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

Hopefully enough of this rain will fall over the watershed areas to get us further on the upswing of eliminating drought conditions.

[Stormlover74]

12 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Hopefully no one was trapped by the mudslide.

Lots of mud and rocks and the golf course across the road was washed out