July 2026

[TriPol]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

A cooler regime is in place and will remain in place through the remainder of July. Highs will generally reach the lower 80s through much or all of the remainder of July. The warmest spots could reach the middle 80s on occasion.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.1°C for the week centered around July 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.82°C. The ongoing strong El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer.

The SOI was -17.36 yesterday. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.144 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 72% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.6° (0.9° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

Do you think the heat dome ever rebuilds over us in August and we get upper 90s to 100s again?

[MANDA]

Tornado Summary NWS Mt. Holly:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/TextProduct?product=pnsphi

Was up in Stanhope today and drove through the Rt. 80 / 206 intersection.  Very clearly it was tornado damage.  Lots of twisting in the tree damage path.  Also skipping from damage to none to damage again over a short distance.  Clearly was not straight line winds.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, TriPol said:

Do you think the heat dome ever rebuilds over us in August and we get upper 90s to 100s again?

With the strong and strengthening El Niño, the odds are probably against a return to 100s.

[Psychguy]

20 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

With the strong and strengthening El Niño, the odds are probably against a return to 100s.

Wondering how many more 90 degree days we see… doesn’t look like any for the rest of the month. A 90 degree free August… wondering if Philly has ever had one… I’m sure they have, but not recently.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

37 minutes ago, Psychguy said:

Wondering how many more 90 degree days we see… doesn’t look like any for the rest of the month. A 90 degree free August… wondering if Philly has ever had one… I’m sure they have, but not recently.

It actually happened in 2013:

2013-08-01	74	68	71.0	-7.4	0	6	1.33	0.0	0
2013-08-02	86	68	77.0	-1.3	0	12	0.00	0.0	0
2013-08-03	79	68	73.5	-4.8	0	9	T	0.0	0
2013-08-04	80	66	73.0	-5.2	0	8	0.00	0.0	0
2013-08-05	78	62	70.0	-8.1	0	5	0.00	0.0	0
2013-08-06	78	63	70.5	-7.5	0	6	T	0.0	0
2013-08-07	76	68	72.0	-5.9	0	7	0.06	0.0	0
2013-08-08	87	71	79.0	1.2	0	14	0.35	0.0	0
2013-08-09	88	76	82.0	4.2	0	17	T	0.0	0
2013-08-10	84	73	78.5	0.8	0	14	0.00	0.0	0
2013-08-11	85	66	75.5	-2.1	0	11	0.00	0.0	0
2013-08-12	86	72	79.0	1.5	0	14	0.00	0.0	0
2013-08-13	83	68	75.5	-1.9	0	11	2.02	0.0	0
2013-08-14	76	63	69.5	-7.8	0	5	0.00	0.0	0
2013-08-15	78	58	68.0	-9.1	0	3	0.00	0.0	0
2013-08-16	81	60	70.5	-6.5	0	6	0.00	0.0	0
2013-08-17	82	63	72.5	-4.4	0	8	0.00	0.0	0
2013-08-18	77	66	71.5	-5.3	0	7	0.03	0.0	0
2013-08-19	77	65	71.0	-5.7	0	6	0.00	0.0	0
2013-08-20	87	66	76.5	0.0	0	12	0.00	0.0	0
2013-08-21	89	70	79.5	3.1	0	15	0.00	0.0	0
2013-08-22	85	70	77.5	1.3	0	13	1.08	0.0	0
2013-08-23	77	68	72.5	-3.6	0	8	T	0.0	0
2013-08-24	82	65	73.5	-2.4	0	9	0.00	0.0	0
2013-08-25	81	61	71.0	-4.8	0	6	0.00	0.0	0
2013-08-26	86	65	75.5	-0.1	0	11	T	0.0	0
2013-08-27	89	73	81.0	5.6	0	16	0.00	0.0	0
2013-08-28	76	72	74.0	-1.2	0	9	1.04	0.0	0
2013-08-29	83	71	77.0	2.0	0	12	T	0.0	0
2013-08-30	83	69	76.0	1.2	0	11	T	0.0	0
2013-08-31	88	72	80.0	5.4	0	15	0.00	0.0	0

[donsutherland1]

9 hours ago, Psychguy said:

Wondering how many more 90 degree days we see… doesn’t look like any for the rest of the month. A 90 degree free August… wondering if Philly has ever had one… I’m sure they have, but not recently.

Philadelphia has actually had 14 years with 0 90° days in August. The most recent such year was 2013. Some of the guidance suggests that 90° heat could return late in the first week of August and continue during at least part of the second week of the month.

[Brian5671]

The back of summer may be broken!    Nice morning here 63 now and the windows are open for a change.

[SACRUS]

70 / 55 gorgeous stretch of weather the next 96 hours / 4 days including the whole weekend low - mid 80sand dry.  Next shot at rain as the next trough moves through Mon - Tue, similar to this past Tue /Wed warm sw flow ahead of cool front could trigger more storms and the shot at more clearing/sun a sneaky 90 for places.  Outside of that heat is south and west - western ridge persists the next week to 10 days, with some of that heat bleeding east towards the first week of next month.

7/23 - 7/26 : Dry / great stretch - below normal
7/27 - 7/28 : Next shot at rain/storms with trough / front - sneaky warmth if more clearing, similar to this tue-wed
7/29 - 7/31 : Next Dry / great stretch - below normal 
8/1 - beyond :  moderation from below - near normal - above normal with next heat chance in the timeframe after 8/3

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 102 (2011)
NYC: 100 (2011)
LGA: 100 (1955)
JFK: 102 (2011)


Lows:

EWR: 55 (1939)
NYC: 58 (1890)
LGA: 59 (1992)
JFK: 59 (1992)



Historical:

 

1788 - A weather diary kept by George Washington recorded that the center of a hurricane passed directly over his Mount Vernon home. The hurricane crossed eastern North Carolina and Virginia before moving into the Central Appalachians. Norfolk, VA, reported houses destroyed, trees uprooted, and crops leveled to the ground. (David Ludlum)

1788: Called the George Washington's Hurricane, this storm originated near Bermuda on the 19th before making landfall in Virginia. It passed directly over the Lower Chesapeake Bay and Mount Vernon, the home of George Washington. This track is very similar to the path of the Chesapeake-Potomac hurricane of 1933. At Norfolk, winds increased at 5 p.m. on the 23rd with the wind originating from the northeast. At 12:30 a.m., the wind suddenly shifted to the south and "blew a perfect hurricane, tearing down chimneys, fences"...some corn was also leveled. Also, large trees were uprooted, and houses were moved from their foundations.  Port Royal and Hobb's Hole experienced a violent northeast gale which drove several vessels ashore. In Fredricksburg, vast quantities of corn, tobacco, and fruit were destroyed. Houses and trees fell in significant numbers across Northumberland, Lancaster, Richmond, and Westmoreland counties. Crops were destroyed, and many livestock perished in Lower Mathews County. Many plantations saw their houses leveled. Homes were flooded with water six feet deep, and several inhabitants drowned.  Historical figures of the time logged the storm's antics. George Washington noted the sinking of the small ship Federalist and uprooted trees. Colonel James Madison, the father of the future president, experienced the passing of great winds and rains near Orange. In Alexandria, damage to wheat, tobacco, and corn was "beyond description."  The information above is from the Weather Prediction Center and noted American historian David Ludlum.

1898 - A two hour thunderstorm deluged Atlanta, GA, with 4.32 inches of rain. More than a foot of water flooded Union Depot. Many street car motors burned out while trying to run through flooded streets. It grew so dark before the afternoon storm that gas lights were needed. (The Weather Channel)

1923 - Sheridan, WY, was drenched with 4.41 inches of rain, an all-time 24 hour record for that location. Associated flooding washed out 20 miles of railroad track. (22nd-23rd) (The Weather Channel)

 

1975: Severe thunderstorms affected parts of northern and central Illinois. In Peoria, winds gusting to 85 mph knocked over trees. Two tornadoes affected Fulton County. The first passed through mainly rural areas. The second tornado caused major damage in Canton, where 127 businesses and 100 homes were destroyed. 300 other homes and 100 trailers were damaged; total damages were around $20 million dollars. Two people were killed as the tornado moved through a mobile home park. Power lines were downed during the storm; some areas were without power until the 28th. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1979: Intense thunderstorms dumped copious amounts of rainfall over the western parts of Oklahoma. Rainfall amounts were quite impressive, including reports of up to 7 inches just north of Arapaho, in Custer County. Four inches of rain fell in just one hour east of Arapaho and two inches of rain fell in only 30 minutes in Clinton. Many creeks and rivers were quickly forced out of their banks by the heavy rainfall. Floods covered the Arapaho-Weatherford Road with as much as 4 feet of water. More than 5 inches of rain fell in the Taloga area of Dewey County, causing Highway 183 to be inundated by one to two feet of flood water. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1985: Tropical Storm Bob moved across south Florida from Ft. Myers to just north of Palm Beach. The storm then turned north and moved northeast of Florida. The storm did minor damage to roofs and downed some trees, mainly on Florida's west coast. Rainfall amounts ranged up to 13 inches at Naples. Several beaches suffered erosion from Port Charlotte to Marco Island. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1987 - Thunderstorms produced a record ten inches of rain in six and a half hours at Minneapolis, MN, including 5.26 inches in two hours. Flash flooding claimed two lives and caused 21.3 million dollars damage. Streets in Minneapolis became rushing rivers, parking lots became lakes, and storm sewers spouted like geysers. A tornado hit Maple Grove, MN, causing five million dollars damage. Baseball size hail was reported at Olivia, MN. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Lower Michigan and northern Ohio, over eastern sections of the Dakotas, and over the Central High Plains Region. Showers and thunderstorms soaked Wilmington, NC, with another two inches of rain, following six and a half inches the previous day. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Morning thunderstorms in the central U.S. drenched central Oklahoma with up to six inches of rain. Afternoon thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 85 mph at Fort Smith, AR. Evening thunderstorms over Florida spawned a tornado which touched down three times in south Fort Myers causing nearly three quarters of a million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1995: At Dodge City, KS thunderstorm winds to 100 mph caused extensive damage to fences. One filling station canopy was downed and it landed on two occupied vehicles but there were no injuries. One roof was taken off a house with debris scattered several hundred yards. A large storage shed was heavily damaged with two motor homes inside receiving extensive damage. Debris was carried one quarter of a mile. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)


1998: Thunderstorms produced a record ten inches of rain in six and a half hours at Minneapolis, MN, including 5.26 inches in two hours. Flash flooding claimed two lives and caused 21.3 million dollars damage. Streets in Minneapolis became rushing rivers, parking lots became lakes, and storm sewers spouted like geysers. A tornado hit Maple Grove, MN causing five million dollars damage. Baseball size hail was reported at Olivia, MN. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2003: Boise, Idaho: With a reading of 107°F, a new record was set for the number of consecutive days with temperatures above 100°F. July 23 marks the 9th consecutive day. (Ref. WxDoctor) (Ref. Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)

2006: This was the peak of an intense July heat wave that affected much of California and the NW United States thanks to an intense upper level heat ridge. Fresno, CA was the hottest since 7/27/1933. An all-time record high minimum was set with 90°. In Lemoore, 10,000 customers lost power for up to four hours. In all, 46 deaths were reported with 18 injuries. Eugene, OR tied their July record with 105°. Other daily record highs included: Phoenix, AZ: 114°, Redding, CA: 114°, Sacramento, CA: 111°, Lewiston, ID: 109°, Medford, OR: 107°, Spokane, WA: 102 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2008: Rhode Island: A waterspout forms at about 4 pm just off Rumstick Point near Barrington then moves onto land as a tornado in Warren before moving into the Ocean Grove section of Swansea, Massachusetts. The tornado's path is estimated as 4.2 miles long and 40 yards wide. No injuries are reported, but damage to trees, power lines and houses is reported.(Ref. WxDoctor)

2010: After a severe thunderstorm, a Vivian South Dakota resident, Les Scott, found a hailstone with a diameter of 8.0 inches and its weight was 1.9375 pounds (1 pound, 15 ounces) with a circumference of 18.62 inches. These measurements displace the previous hailstone record for weight, previously 1.67 pounds for a stone in Coffeyville, Kan., in 1970. They also surpass the record for the greatest diameter, which was 7 inches for a hailstone found in Aurora, Neb., in 2003. But the Aurora hailstone still holds the record for the greatest circumference of 18.75 inches. (Thus the Aurora hailstone was more spherical than the Vivian hailstone.)(Ref. NOAA News Release July 30, 2010 - Record Hailstone )(Ref. See a Picture of the World's Largest Hailstone)(Ref. Info. on the Storm Yielding Hailstone(Ref. See a video About the World's Largest Hailstone)

2011: Chicago set an all-time daily record rainfall when 6.86 inches fell during the early morning hours of Saturday, July 23, 2011, at O'Hare airport. The previous daily record was 6.64 inches set on September 13, 2008.

[FPizz]

18 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The back of summer may be broken!    Nice morning here 63 now and the windows are open for a change.

58 here.  Nice morning.

[SnoSki14]

19 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The back of summer may be broken!    Nice morning here 63 now and the windows are open for a change.

If you mean no more 100s then most likely but it's only July 23. Heat will likely return sometime in August 

[Brian5671]

15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If you mean no more 100s then most likely but it's only July 23. Heat will likely return sometime in August 

Definitely.   But the worst is likely behind us.   August heat never feels as bad with the lowering sun angle at least in my opinion.

[bluewave]

Still have a ways to go to reverse this long term drought. Some areas saw small improvement. But the heaviest downpours were more localized which is common with convection. 
 

 

[Brian5671]

Would think the Nino will help out west this fall/winter

[JerseyWx]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Definitely.   But the worst is likely behind us.   August heat never feels as bad with the lowering sun angle at least in my opinion.

August to me is like February in the sense that you're still in the thick of the cold/heat even though averages technically start lowering as we get into August.

[MANDA]

26 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

August to me is like February in the sense that you're still in the thick of the cold/heat even though averages technically start lowering as we get into August.

 

To me at least the cold never feels as harsh in February as it does in December or January.  Especially once to mid February the increasing sun angle just helps make it not feel so bad.  By mid February just by looking out the window you can tell winter is on the run.

Mid February = Mid August

[forkyfork]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

If you mean no more 100s then most likely but it's only July 23. Heat will likely return sometime in August 

our last two ninos had torch septembers

[JerseyWx]

13 minutes ago, MANDA said:

 

To me at least the cold never feels as harsh in February as it does in December or January.  Especially once to mid February the increasing sun angle just helps make it not feel so bad.  By mid February just by looking out the window you can tell winter is on the run.

Mid February = Mid August

Yeah I agree, although I think part of it is just adapting to the cold by then.  Think of Novemeber when we first dip into the low 30's at night how cold that feels.  Yet by February a high in the 30's would be nothing.

 

 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Another one of those top ten days…….

[FPizz]

22 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

our last two ninos had torch septembers

Fall starts here on October 20th and lasts until the start of spring

[forkyfork]

3 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Another one of those top ten days…….

top ten boring

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

top ten boring

so much for your epic torch July 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

Fall starts here on October 20th and lasts until the start of spring

15-16 incoming...hopefully we get a blizzard during the 3 week winter

[FPizz]

29 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

15-16 incoming...hopefully we get a blizzard during the 3 week winter

I was kidding obv.  I take things 2 weeks at a time.  It might be a consistent 2 weeks of garbage come winter, but we will see.

[Brian5671]

12 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I was kidding obv.  I take things 2 weeks at a time.  It might be a consistent 2 weeks of garbage come winter, but we will see.

Exactly.   I don't have high hopes, but see what happens.    We had 2 good ones in a row-so whatever we get is gravy in my book

[forkyfork]

warmer version of 97/98

[SACRUS]

79 / 58 full sun

[495weatherguy]

37 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

warmer version of 97/98

We can only hope for this prediction to come true

[SACRUS]

3 hours ago, forkyfork said:

our last two ninos had torch septembers

El Niño Event	First / Key Year	NYC Aug Departure	NYC Sept Departure	EWR Aug Departure	EWR Sept Departure
1951–52	1951	-1.6	-1.0	-2.3	-2.1
1953	1953	-0.3	+1.2	-1.7	-0.2
1957–58	1957	-2.5	+0.5	-3.5	+0.2
1963–64	1963	-4.0	-6.2	-2.5	-5.2
1965–66	1965	-2.9	-1.8	-1.9	-0.8
1968–69	1968	-0.1	+1.4	+0.4	+1.5
1969–70	1969	+1.3	-0.2	+0.9	-1.7
1972–73	1972	-0.5	+0.3	-0.5	+0.6
1976–77	1976	-1.8	-2.6	-2.0	-2.7
1977–78	1977	-0.4	-1.0	-1.3	-1.2
1982–83	1982	-3.0	-0.9	-4.0	-2.5
1986–88	1986	-3.0	-1.4	-2.2	-0.6
1991–92	1991	+1.0	-1.8	+1.2	-1.2
1994–95	1994	-2.1	-1.6	-0.8	+0.5
1997–98	1997	-2.8	-2.2	-2.8	-2.3
2002–03	2002	+1.7	+1.0	+1.5	+1.2
2004–05	2004	-1.8	+0.1	-1.9	+0.3
2006–07	2006	-0.3	-2.6	+0.8	-2.5
2009–10	2009	-0.4	-2.9	+0.8	-2.3
2014–16	2014	-1.5	+0.5	-2.0	+0.5
2014–16	2015	+2.9	+5.2	+2.3	+4.2
2018–19	2018	+2.1	+1.5	+2.8	+2.1
2023–24	2023	-1.1	+0.2	+0.2	+2.0
2026–27	2026	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD

[Santa Claus]

i want as much rain as possible