July 2026

[TriPol]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

A cooler regime is in place and will remain in place through the remainder of July. Highs will generally reach the lower 80s through much or all of the remainder of July. The warmest spots could reach the middle 80s on occasion.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.1°C for the week centered around July 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.82°C. The ongoing strong El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer.

The SOI was -17.36 yesterday. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.144 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 72% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.6° (0.9° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

Do you think the heat dome ever rebuilds over us in August and we get upper 90s to 100s again?

[MANDA]

Tornado Summary NWS Mt. Holly:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/TextProduct?product=pnsphi

Was up in Stanhope today and drove through the Rt. 80 / 206 intersection.  Very clearly it was tornado damage.  Lots of twisting in the tree damage path.  Also skipping from damage to none to damage again over a short distance.  Clearly was not straight line winds.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, TriPol said:

Do you think the heat dome ever rebuilds over us in August and we get upper 90s to 100s again?

With the strong and strengthening El Niño, the odds are probably against a return to 100s.

[Psychguy]

20 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

With the strong and strengthening El Niño, the odds are probably against a return to 100s.

Wondering how many more 90 degree days we see… doesn’t look like any for the rest of the month. A 90 degree free August… wondering if Philly has ever had one… I’m sure they have, but not recently.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

37 minutes ago, Psychguy said:

Wondering how many more 90 degree days we see… doesn’t look like any for the rest of the month. A 90 degree free August… wondering if Philly has ever had one… I’m sure they have, but not recently.

It actually happened in 2013:

2013-08-01	74	68	71.0	-7.4	0	6	1.33	0.0	0
2013-08-02	86	68	77.0	-1.3	0	12	0.00	0.0	0
2013-08-03	79	68	73.5	-4.8	0	9	T	0.0	0
2013-08-04	80	66	73.0	-5.2	0	8	0.00	0.0	0
2013-08-05	78	62	70.0	-8.1	0	5	0.00	0.0	0
2013-08-06	78	63	70.5	-7.5	0	6	T	0.0	0
2013-08-07	76	68	72.0	-5.9	0	7	0.06	0.0	0
2013-08-08	87	71	79.0	1.2	0	14	0.35	0.0	0
2013-08-09	88	76	82.0	4.2	0	17	T	0.0	0
2013-08-10	84	73	78.5	0.8	0	14	0.00	0.0	0
2013-08-11	85	66	75.5	-2.1	0	11	0.00	0.0	0
2013-08-12	86	72	79.0	1.5	0	14	0.00	0.0	0
2013-08-13	83	68	75.5	-1.9	0	11	2.02	0.0	0
2013-08-14	76	63	69.5	-7.8	0	5	0.00	0.0	0
2013-08-15	78	58	68.0	-9.1	0	3	0.00	0.0	0
2013-08-16	81	60	70.5	-6.5	0	6	0.00	0.0	0
2013-08-17	82	63	72.5	-4.4	0	8	0.00	0.0	0
2013-08-18	77	66	71.5	-5.3	0	7	0.03	0.0	0
2013-08-19	77	65	71.0	-5.7	0	6	0.00	0.0	0
2013-08-20	87	66	76.5	0.0	0	12	0.00	0.0	0
2013-08-21	89	70	79.5	3.1	0	15	0.00	0.0	0
2013-08-22	85	70	77.5	1.3	0	13	1.08	0.0	0
2013-08-23	77	68	72.5	-3.6	0	8	T	0.0	0
2013-08-24	82	65	73.5	-2.4	0	9	0.00	0.0	0
2013-08-25	81	61	71.0	-4.8	0	6	0.00	0.0	0
2013-08-26	86	65	75.5	-0.1	0	11	T	0.0	0
2013-08-27	89	73	81.0	5.6	0	16	0.00	0.0	0
2013-08-28	76	72	74.0	-1.2	0	9	1.04	0.0	0
2013-08-29	83	71	77.0	2.0	0	12	T	0.0	0
2013-08-30	83	69	76.0	1.2	0	11	T	0.0	0
2013-08-31	88	72	80.0	5.4	0	15	0.00	0.0	0

[donsutherland1]

9 hours ago, Psychguy said:

Wondering how many more 90 degree days we see… doesn’t look like any for the rest of the month. A 90 degree free August… wondering if Philly has ever had one… I’m sure they have, but not recently.

Philadelphia has actually had 14 years with 0 90° days in August. The most recent such year was 2013. Some of the guidance suggests that 90° heat could return late in the first week of August and continue during at least part of the second week of the month.

[Brian5671]

The back of summer may be broken!    Nice morning here 63 now and the windows are open for a change.

[SACRUS]

70 / 55 gorgeous stretch of weather the next 96 hours / 4 days including the whole weekend low - mid 80sand dry.  Next shot at rain as the next trough moves through Mon - Tue, similar to this past Tue /Wed warm sw flow ahead of cool front could trigger more storms and the shot at more clearing/sun a sneaky 90 for places.  Outside of that heat is south and west - western ridge persists the next week to 10 days, with some of that heat bleeding east towards the first week of next month.

7/23 - 7/26 : Dry / great stretch - below normal
7/27 - 7/28 : Next shot at rain/storms with trough / front - sneaky warmth if more clearing, similar to this tue-wed
7/29 - 7/31 : Next Dry / great stretch - below normal 
8/1 - beyond :  moderation from below - near normal - above normal with next heat chance in the timeframe after 8/3