July 2026

[TriPol]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

A cooler regime is in place and will remain in place through the remainder of July. Highs will generally reach the lower 80s through much or all of the remainder of July. The warmest spots could reach the middle 80s on occasion.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.1°C for the week centered around July 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.82°C. The ongoing strong El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer.

The SOI was -17.36 yesterday. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.144 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 72% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.6° (0.9° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

Do you think the heat dome ever rebuilds over us in August and we get upper 90s to 100s again?

[MANDA]

Tornado Summary NWS Mt. Holly:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/TextProduct?product=pnsphi

Was up in Stanhope today and drove through the Rt. 80 / 206 intersection.  Very clearly it was tornado damage.  Lots of twisting in the tree damage path.  Also skipping from damage to none to damage again over a short distance.  Clearly was not straight line winds.