July 2026

[winterwarlock]

28 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

did summer peak last summer?

See you next Wednesday

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

See you next Wednesday

You're not getting multiple 104-105s again. Gfs much more muted vs euro 

[winterwx21]

Up to 1.90" and it's coming down in buckets. Looking at radar it's almost over. 

[winterwx21]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

You're not getting multiple 104-105s again. Gfs much more muted vs euro 

Probably mid 90s. 

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Probably mid 90s. 

We could touch 100F in warmest scenario. I think all this rain will help hold temps down next week. Peak heat will be over plains

Either way we're probably going to see a top 3-5 hottest July on record 

[Brian5671]

34 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We could touch 100F in warmest scenario. I think all this rain will help hold temps down next week. Peak heat will be over plains

Either way we're probably going to see a top 3-5 hottest July on record 

Yep with 2 big heatwaves it's a good chance unless the last 10 days is cool or something.

[steve392]

The storm clouds that are to my south/se are impressive.  The cold breeze feels amazing right now. 

 

 

 

[FPizz]

Generator just popped on.  

[bluewave]

This will be a very rare pancake heat dome  Notice how compressed the forecast record 600 dm heights for the MSP area will be. So the 850 mb plume will be fairly narrow.

If it ejects perfectly coinciding with the daily highs next week around 4pm then my guess is the warm spots could reach 100° to 103°. If the warmest 850 mb temperatures occur at night then the daytime max could only be 96° to 100° for the warm spots.

This is probably why each model is flipping from run to run since the timing of the peak 850 mb temperatures keeps changing. 

Fairly narrow 850 mb plume

[MANDA]

6 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Generator just popped on.  

A sound I don't want to hear again for a while after a 66 hour stretch recently.  

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Consistent moderate rain with rumbles of thunder at jones beach. Have to be near an inch here


.

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, MANDA said:

A sound I don't want to hear again for a while after a 66 hour stretch recently.  

Keep saying we're going to look into a generac

[steve392]

Getting dark by me.  Storms finally approaching. 

[MANDA]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Keep saying we're going to look into a generac

They don't get a workout too often but nice to have one when you need one.

No more flashlights or candles.  No more freezing or roasting in the dark.  You pretty much go on with normal life when the power is out.

We did not have one for Sandy so that was the worst.  If we had not had one now this would have run a close second with no a/c in a heatwave for 3 days.

[FPizz]

11 minutes ago, MANDA said:

They don't get a workout too often but nice to have one when you need one.

No more flashlights or candles.  No more freezing or roasting in the dark.  You pretty much go on with normal life when the power is out.

We did not have one for Sandy so that was the worst.  If we had not had one now this would have run a close second with no a/c in a heatwave for 3 days.

Yeah, went out, and within 3 minutes the internet was back on and unfortunately back working haha.  After losing power a few times over the years and getting water in the basement because of that, we went for it.  My area does seem to lose power at least 10x a year it seems.  

[NEG NAO]

[Prue11]

47 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Consistent moderate rain with rumbles of thunder at jones beach. Have to be near an inch here


.

An inch? 3 stations in that area are all just under a 1/4” 

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

Yeah, went out, and within 3 minutes the internet was back on and unfortunately back working haha.  After losing power a few times over the years and getting water in the basement because of that, we went for it.  My area does seem to lose power at least 10x a year it seems.  

Wow. Here I lose power maybe once every 2 or 3 years on average. 

[FPizz]

26 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Wow. Here I lose power maybe once every 2 or 3 years on average. 

I was in Piscataway 36 years and remember losing power during Gloria and Sandy, and maybe like 3 other times haha.  Im not sure why we lose it so often here 

[donsutherland1]

Some additional showers and thundershowers are possible early tonight. A few could bring heavy downpours.

Tomorrow will feature high temperatures in the upper 80s. A few of the hot spots could approach or reach 90°. Showers or thundershowers are again possible. 

The weekend will turn somewhat cooler with highs mainly in the lower 80s. No excessive heat appears likely through mid-month. However, some of the guidance has grown hotter near mid-month so that situation will bear watching.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.8°C for the week centered around July 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.52°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer.

The SOI is not available due to data feed issues. This could be an extended issue.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.814 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 65% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.9° (1.4° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

An inch? 3 stations in that area are all just under a 1/4” 

Where are these stations? 5 miles south or more then any inhabited land. Rain trained right along the barrier islands.


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[Prue11]

16 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Where are these stations? 5 miles south or more then any inhabited land. Rain trained right along the barrier islands.


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Point lookout garden city ave off ocean blvd. Right on the water. Nobody on the island even came close to an inch of rain 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Point lookout garden city ave off ocean blvd. Right on the water. Nobody on the island even came close to an inch of rain 

Ok I’m not here for an argument and I do not want to pull radar loops. But that enhanced area that came off New Jersey only scrapped jones beach and not the rest of Long Island. Regardless I do not have a rain gauge at JB but I had a measly quarter inch when I got home to lynbrook. My go to with jones beach is when the administration parking lot floods. We had some water coming out of the sump today but just barely in the lot.


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[Prue11]

1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Ok I’m not her for an argument and I do not want to pull radar loops. But that enhanced area that came off New Jersey only scrapped jones beach and not the rest of Long Island. Regardless I do not have a rain gauge at JB but I had a measly quarter inch when I got home to lynbrook. My go to with jones beach is when the administration parking lot floods. We had some water coming out of the sump today but just barely in the lot.


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Not here for argument either but saying you were closing in an inch without anything to back it up but a parking lot puddle and your eyes.

 

other stations to the east and west of jones right on the beach were also only recording .20”-.23”