Severe threat 6/10-6/12

[mjwise]

I never start threads but I thought there should be one for this with a Day 3 enhanced and Day 4 30% severe delineation already posted. Smarter people can discuss.

[CheeselandSkies]

Annoyed I will be missing the severe threats in MBY due to a planned trip to Cleveland to visit family tomorrow through Friday.

[A-L-E-K]

promising look, nice that we should see multiple rounds impact klot

 

 

[Chicago916]

Let's get ready to Derecho

[A-L-E-K]

that would be cool

[Brian D]

Starting tonight into tomorrow for my area.

[MidwestChaser]

NAM looks volatile for S WI and N IL Thursday evening.

[hawkeye_wx]

Despite a good-looking setup for eastern Iowa Wednesday into Wednesday night, all of the morning CAMs show almost all the storms forming northeast, east and south of this area.

[Torchageddon]

This Thurs may be the best chance for something decent (nothing like the main risk areas tho) IMBY as everything in 2026 except 2 storms in Mar has been pathetic, and all but 1 between midnight and 3am. 

[A-L-E-K]

2 hours ago, MidwestChaser said:

NAM looks volatile for S WI and N IL Thursday evening.

multiple comma head mcs wed-thurs or bust

12z guidance looking p sweet, we locking in gang?

[Malacka11]

I am in favor of daylight visibility at the expense of overall wow (to a point) so I enjoy that some models pop a mid-afternoon line for tomorrow now. Obviously don't want that to end up dudding the whole day or shifting the crosshair for later by accident but if we could sneak a good hit in the afternoon and then another at night that would be baller. Not even to speak of getting another even better chance Thursday to my understanding

[luckyweather]

New D2 Tor Outlook. Seems like SW WI always gets the bullseye these days. 

[mjwise]

Enhanced for severe wind also expanded into Chicagoland on the new D2.

[Chicago916]

Get ready to Day 3 Moderate?

[sbnwx85]

Getting excited for this one. I wish I didn't have to work because I'll be stuck in the newsroom/producer booth, but I'll be watching the storms on radar and through weather cameras. There are worse ways to make a living.

[A-L-E-K]

 

[King James]

Funny last night for no reason I was thinking about derechos and the pronunciation

It is written

[andyhb]

That is quite a potent shortwave on the 12z Euro for Thursday with a 90+ kt 500 mb max, especially for June. Morning convection will rule the roost as usual, but I would expect a pretty widespread and potentially significant severe event given the magnitude of the flow overlapping strong instability.

[Chicago Storm]

The HRRR is top tier for tomorrow around here, projecting 3 rounds of back-back-back severe clusters locally.

[Chicago916]

6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

The HRRR is top tier for tomorrow around here, projecting 3 rounds of back-back-back severe clusters locally.

Shades of?

https://www.weather.gov/lot/2014_06_30_SevereStorms

[pen_artist]

The end of the 18z HRRR also showing a well recovered powder keg of an atmosphere early afternoon Thursday. Can't imagine what 00z runs will show if trends continue

[MidwestChaser]

That is one spicy bow echo on the Hrrr tomorrow afternoon.

[MidwestChaser]

Am I reading this wrong, but does the HRRR also want to keep things discreet going into the metro?

[pen_artist]

6 minutes ago, MidwestChaser said:

Am I reading this wrong, but does the HRRR also want to keep things discreet going into the metro?

Are you referring to Thursday? Because I am seeing/wondering same. The convection isn't quite as large/robust at the very end of run but a bit more discrete than earlier models 

[mjwise]

41 minutes ago, MidwestChaser said:

That is one spicy bow echo on the Hrrr tomorrow afternoon.

Model sounding here for 18z is nearly 5000 SBCAPE with minimal to no capping, 87/76 T/Td, and PWAT of 2 inches. Charged! Already felt quite juicy out tonight. 

[Chinook]

HRRR for tomorrow

[MidwestChaser]

Boy howdy, this is one loaded sounding from 3knam for me:

 

[cyclone77]

Eastern Iowa is gonna get hammered early tomorrow evening with the main wave.  

Looks like Thursday action may focus more along and south of I-80 due to the morning wave.  That morning/early afternoon batch will be severe as well, but may push the main show further south in the later afternoon.

[luckyweather]

overnight d2

[A-L-E-K]

mesoanalysis showing over 4ksbcape in n il this afternoon