Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[JenkinsJinkies]

https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1601209068040844&id=100044552974374

[Bob Chill]

3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Issuing a winter outlook, even a preliminary one, in August is dicey. 

It's an "easy" enso setup to make some decent predictions if you just look at the Nino regions. Where I'm getting hung up is the Npac. There is so much warmth throughout the pac basin that it makes me far less confident predicting standard strong nino conditions. But given the strength of the nino, its hard to bet against a wet southern stream. 

Its still only August but if the Npac/pdo regions continue to be the opposite of what we really want to see, my gut says this winter will do some weird things that few expect/predict.

The pessimistic side of me thinks the pac will overwhelm north America and it will be warm and wet with few chances at good snowfall even to our north and west. 

The optimistic side of me says we're in a long term HL blocking period and even the EPO will punch cold to very cold air into the conus with a suppressed/favorable southern stream. Meaning the winter could be unusually cold east of the Rockies for a strong nino. 

I would be pretty funny if its a dry winter though. Maybe the southern stream cuts well west of us or stays south of the gulf coast lol

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's an "easy" enso setup to make some decent predictions if you just look at the Nino regions. Where I'm getting hung up is the Npac. There is so much warmth throughout the pac basin that it makes me far less confident predicting standard strong nino conditions. But given the strength of the nino, its hard to bet against a wet southern stream. 

Its still only August but if the Npac/pdo regions continue to be the opposite of what we really want to see, my gut says this winter will do some weird things that few expect/predict.

The pessimistic side of me thinks the pac will overwhelm north America and it will be warm and wet with few chances at good snowfall even to our north and west. 

The optimistic side of me says we're in a long term HL blocking period and even the EPO will punch cold to very cold air into the conus with a suppressed/favorable southern stream. Meaning the winter could be unusually cold east of the Rockies for a strong nino. 

I would be pretty funny if its a dry winter though. Maybe the southern stream cuts well west of us or stays south of the gulf coast lol

It's not unreasonable to be pessimistic on snow chances in winter anymore, especially south of 40N. We've been in such a long term snow drought that it's almost safer to forecast Above Normal temps and Below Normal snowfall. You stand a good chance of being right most years outside of New England. Heck, I could see this being a shutout in the snowfall department south of DC this winter. Several folks on here appear to have already punted December and the first half of January!

[Ephesians2]

[WxUSAF]

I’d expect the Nino will push around the NPac and at least bring the PDO more toward neutral if not weakly positive. 

[Fozz]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's not unreasonable to be pessimistic on snow chances in winter anymore, especially south of 40N. We've been in such a long term snow drought that it's almost safer to forecast Above Normal temps and Below Normal snowfall. You stand a good chance of being right most years outside of New England. Heck, I could see this being a shutout in the snowfall department south of DC this winter. Several folks on here appear to have already punted December and the first half of January!

I think it would take a lot of bad luck to get shut out. It could happen, like it did in 1998 and that early 70s winter.

But with a highly juiced up STJ, I’d definitely take my chances. In 2016 we got a perfectly timed -AO/-NAO even after a disastrous December, and if that happens again then all bets are off.

The long range precip anomaly maps for the winter months make me feel pretty good about big storm chances.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

It's an "easy" enso setup to make some decent predictions if you just look at the Nino regions. Where I'm getting hung up is the Npac. There is so much warmth throughout the pac basin that it makes me far less confident predicting standard strong nino conditions. But given the strength of the nino, its hard to bet against a wet southern stream. 

Its still only August but if the Npac/pdo regions continue to be the opposite of what we really want to see, my gut says this winter will do some weird things that few expect/predict.

The pessimistic side of me thinks the pac will overwhelm north America and it will be warm and wet with few chances at good snowfall even to our north and west. 

The optimistic side of me says we're in a long term HL blocking period and even the EPO will punch cold to very cold air into the conus with a suppressed/favorable southern stream. Meaning the winter could be unusually cold east of the Rockies for a strong nino. 

I would be pretty funny if its a dry winter though. Maybe the southern stream cuts well west of us or stays south of the gulf coast lol

2 cold Winter's in the Northeast followed by an El Nino looks like this precip wise (10 analogs is a pretty good amount)

Now keep in mind that includes Weak Nino's and we are going to have the strongest on record by 15%, so maybe it's still really hard to get a dry Winter but I thought the analog composite was interesting (since we know how the dry pattern has been present for the past 2 years, minus wet July and Aug which has been the decadal trend 2017-2026). 

[katabatic]

4 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

It's an "easy" enso setup to make some decent predictions if you just look at the Nino regions. Where I'm getting hung up is the Npac. There is so much warmth throughout the pac basin that it makes me far less confident predicting standard strong nino conditions. But given the strength of the nino, its hard to bet against a wet southern stream. 

Its still only August but if the Npac/pdo regions continue to be the opposite of what we really want to see, my gut says this winter will do some weird things that few expect/predict.

The pessimistic side of me thinks the pac will overwhelm north America and it will be warm and wet with few chances at good snowfall even to our north and west. 

The optimistic side of me says we're in a long term HL blocking period and even the EPO will punch cold to very cold air into the conus with a suppressed/favorable southern stream. Meaning the winter could be unusually cold east of the Rockies for a strong nino. 

I would be pretty funny if its a dry winter though. Maybe the southern stream cuts well west of us or stays south of the gulf coast lol

You've pointed out something that I've had a question about for a long time. We all know that the NPac is way warmer than normal. But, does that matter (wrt our weather around here)? If the average ocean temp is say, 45, and we're now seeing 50-52, is that enough of a jolt to alter the Nino climactic expectations? I know there are other variables out there, but focusing specifically on ocean warmth, is the 'blob' warm enough (NOT just comparing to average, but total warmth) to cause what we expect (warm northern tier, cooler southern tier, dry Ohio Valley, juiced STJ etc.) to be materially altered? This may be too simplistic but if I go from 17 degrees to 24, that doesn't alter much. If I go from 28 degrees to 35, we have a whole different world. 

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, katabatic said:

You've pointed out something that I've had a question about for a long time. We all know that the NPac is way warmer than normal. But, does that matter (wrt our weather around here)? If the average ocean temp is say, 45, and we're now seeing 50-52, is that enough of a jolt to alter the Nino climactic expectations? I know there are other variables out there, but focusing specifically on ocean warmth, is the 'blob' warm enough (NOT just comparing to average, but total warmth) to cause what we expect (warm northern tier, cooler southern tier, dry Ohio Valley, juiced STJ etc.) to be materially altered? This may be too simplistic but if I go from 17 degrees to 24, that doesn't alter much. If I go from 28 degrees to 35, we have a whole different world. 

I think you’ve hit on the million dollar question that papers are no doubt getting written about. It may influence storm tracks through the strengthening of ridges and weakening of troughs. I don’t think it will materially change the el nino expectations of a STJ and cool south, but whether we will have enough cold air is an open question. 

I did a crude study a few years ago where going from 17 to 24 degrees while replaying a previous noreaster track would juice the totals even more (assuming the same storm tracks, which is a questionable assumption to make). But if starting from a higher baseline temperature, things would fall off the cliff. We just have to hope we get cold enough air well timed with a STJ wave, and that’s partly luck. 

[Bob Chill]

14 hours ago, katabatic said:

You've pointed out something that I've had a question about for a long time. We all know that the NPac is way warmer than normal. But, does that matter (wrt our weather around here)? If the average ocean temp is say, 45, and we're now seeing 50-52, is that enough of a jolt to alter the Nino climactic expectations? I know there are other variables out there, but focusing specifically on ocean warmth, is the 'blob' warm enough (NOT just comparing to average, but total warmth) to cause what we expect (warm northern tier, cooler southern tier, dry Ohio Valley, juiced STJ etc.) to be materially altered? This may be too simplistic but if I go from 17 degrees to 24, that doesn't alter much. If I go from 28 degrees to 35, we have a whole different world. 

It's really hard to guess specifics but I look at it as an indication that the longwave pattern might not be typical. The large scale ridge/troughs may not park where they normally do on average. A key feature with ninos is a deep trough south of the Aleutians and a downstream ridge that blocks strong pac maritime flow into the conus. That's half of the split flow we look forward to with ninos. Screw that all up and things dont look as tasty. I'd sure feel better seeing a more typical +PDO ssta configuration given the strength of the nino. Not saying i expect disaster. Just not crazy bullish on the Pac as a whole. 

[mitchnick]

23 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's not unreasonable to be pessimistic on snow chances in winter anymore, especially south of 40N. We've been in such a long term snow drought that it's almost safer to forecast Above Normal temps and Below Normal snowfall. You stand a good chance of being right most years outside of New England. Heck, I could see this being a shutout in the snowfall department south of DC this winter. Several folks on here appear to have already punted December and the first half of January!

I'm not at 40N, but with being at 39.92N, I've experienced 1 AN snowfall here since 2019. 20/21 was it. 21/22 BWI beat me as I totally missed the 1/22 event. Basically, the Niñas, save 1, have been better to my E and NE, while the 23/24 Niño sucked for all.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

20 hours ago, Terpeast said:

I think you’ve hit on the million dollar question that papers are no doubt getting written about. It may influence storm tracks through the strengthening of ridges and weakening of troughs. I don’t think it will materially change the el nino expectations of a STJ and cool south, but whether we will have enough cold air is an open question. 

I did a crude study a few years ago where going from 17 to 24 degrees while replaying a previous noreaster track would juice the totals even more (assuming the same storm tracks, which is a questionable assumption to make). But if starting from a higher baseline temperature, things would fall off the cliff. We just have to hope we get cold enough air well timed with a STJ wave, and that’s partly luck. 

In a lot of months PDO has higher correlation than ENSO actually. In some months it actually has a higher correlation than PNA! Common sense says that PDO is more secondary, but a 7-year stretch where PHL had 10.7" of snow beating their previous 7-year low over 13.5" during the most -pdo time in history.. interesting coincidence? We were tracking the PDO before that. Last 2 winters we had good cold but I think cold Arctic Summers were a reason for that (which we have again this year). 

[Terpeast]

20 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

In a lot of months PDO has higher correlation than ENSO actually. In some months it actually has a higher correlation than PNA! Common sense says that PDO is more secondary, but a 7-year stretch where PHL had 10.7" of snow beating their previous 7-year low over 13.5" during the most -pdo time in history.. interesting coincidence? We were tracking the PDO before that. Last 2 winters we had good cold but I think cold Arctic Summers were a reason for that (which we have again this year). 

So if the cold arctic summer pattern is in place like the last two winters, and PDO is now rising, those are promising signs for this winter then. 

[katabatic]

23 hours ago, Terpeast said:

I think you’ve hit on the million dollar question that papers are no doubt getting written about. It may influence storm tracks through the strengthening of ridges and weakening of troughs. I don’t think it will materially change the el nino expectations of a STJ and cool south, but whether we will have enough cold air is an open question. 

I did a crude study a few years ago where going from 17 to 24 degrees while replaying a previous noreaster track would juice the totals even more (assuming the same storm tracks, which is a questionable assumption to make). But if starting from a higher baseline temperature, things would fall off the cliff. We just have to hope we get cold enough air well timed with a STJ wave, and that’s partly luck. 

This is interesting. Meteorology is essentially the study of heat transfer. Winds increase in the winter, in large part, because the temperature difference increases between the mid and upper latitudes. We all know that. So, if we have 3.4 averaging 80 and NPac 52 (just for the sake of argument), what would the heat transfer difference cause the jet stream to do if the NPac was 45? In some ways that 7 degrees equals more stored heat than we could ever imagine, decreasing winds. But in the grand scheme of things, is it a proverbial drop in the bucket? Winters suck here because we're almost always close enough to be in the game yet we rarely score a goal. That's numbingly frustrating to us weather fans (in no small part why @dailylurker and I rented a damn house at the apex of the Tug). But I digress...you said (and I am an admirer of you) that you don't think the STJ would be materially impacted due to the increased temperature of the 'blob'. So, I'd love to figure out a way to calculate at what delta would the reduction in the temperature contrast between ocean latitudes cause the STJ to peter out, nullifying the best part of El Nino......and are we close?

[SnowenOutThere]

1 hour ago, katabatic said:

So, I'd love to figure out a way to calculate at what delta would the reduction in the temperature contrast between ocean latitudes cause the STJ to peter out, nullifying the best part of El Nino......and are we close?

I believe that these equations of ocean to atmosphere heat transfer are what’s taught at meteorology courses. I’m sure there’s a way to do this. 

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, katabatic said:

So, I'd love to figure out a way to calculate at what delta would the reduction in the temperature contrast between ocean latitudes cause the STJ to peter out, nullifying the best part of El Nino......and are we close?

I don’t think the STJ is dependent on the north pac sst field, but rather diabatic heating from enhanced convection east of the dateline over the el nino regions. That forcing increases upper level divergence and, because angular momentum has to be conserved, the STJ has to accelerate- and that happens regardless of npac ssts

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 hours ago, Terpeast said:

So if the cold arctic summer pattern is in place like the last two winters, and PDO is now rising, those are promising signs for this winter then. 

Everyone is saying shutout or HECS. I don't think the Winter will be like that. I can say pretty confidently that we will have snow periods, but maybe 3-12" type events. I don't see us blowing up a GOA low and -NAO, which are hecs patterns. We'll see. 

[Eskimo Joe]

10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Everyone is saying shutout or HECS. I don't think the Winter will be like that. I can say pretty confidently that we will have snow periods, but maybe 3-12" type events. I don't see us blowing up a GOA low and -NAO, which are hecs patterns. We'll see. 

Bro I just don't want to be 65 and party sunny on Christmas Day. 

[Cobalt]

DCA Christmas day temps during past strong Nino events

 

1972.. 48hi 42lo

1982.. 70hi 48lo

1997.. 49hi 40lo

2015.. 69hi 57lo

2023.. 61hi 40lo

 

Seems like there's unfortunately much greater odds of our region flirting with 60F+ temps than getting close to freezing (DCA climo for the day is 47hi 33lo)

[JenkinsJinkies]

8 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

DCA Christmas day temps during past strong Nino events

 

1972.. 48hi 42lo

1982.. 70hi 48lo

1997.. 49hi 40lo

2015.. 69hi 57lo

2023.. 61hi 40lo

 

Seems like there's unfortunately much greater odds of our region flirting with 60F+ temps than getting close to freezing (DCA climo for the day is 47hi 33lo)

Yet our 70+ days in January are mostly in niñas.

[Maestrobjwa]

59 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

DCA Christmas day temps during past strong Nino events

 

1972.. 48hi 42lo

1982.. 70hi 48lo

1997.. 49hi 40lo

2015.. 69hi 57lo

2023.. 61hi 40lo

 

Seems like there's unfortunately much greater odds of our region flirting with 60F+ temps than getting close to freezing (DCA climo for the day is 47hi 33lo)

And Christmas 1965: 69hi

Notice what happened later in the winter after the three Christmases we hit 69 or 70...lol Big blizzard!

So maybe that'll be the tell this year...69-70 or above on Christmas day--we snow later  60 or below? No go...while I don't like warm Christmases I will happily take one in exchange!

[Ephesians2]

I think there's been a lot of "bad luck" the last few winters. 

Relative to what you'd expect with the overall pattern:

2017-18: underperformed (Dec and Jan produced very little for most of the forum)

2018-19: near expected

2020-21: MAJOR underperformance for most of the forum. 

2021-22: near expected 

2023-24: near expected 

2024-25: slightly underperformed 

2025-26: underperformed 

2016-17, 19-20, and 22-23 were all awful seasonal patterns but you could argue they underperformed because they could have been like 4-8 inch seasonal totals, not total shutouts. Like even 2011-12 had a 7 inch fluke storm down here that missed DC. 

Hopefully we finally get the flukes to break in our favor this winter. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

21 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

I think there's been a lot of "bad luck" the last few winters. 

Relative to what you'd expect with the overall pattern:

2017-18: underperformed (Dec and Jan produced very little for most of the forum)

2018-19: near expected

2020-21: MAJOR underperformance for most of the forum. 

2021-22: near expected 

2023-24: near expected 

2024-25: slightly underperformed 

2025-26: underperformed 

2016-17, 19-20, and 22-23 were all awful seasonal patterns but you could argue they underperformed because they could have been like 4-8 inch seasonal totals, not total shutouts. Like even 2011-12 had a 7 inch fluke storm down here that missed DC. 

Hopefully we finally get the flukes to break in our favor this winter. 

What are you basing this on? 

Seasonal models had a mean trough for the EC, cold DJF anomaly in the seasonal mean in 23-24.. and it was pretty well above average. 

18-19 a Weak Nino was looking good in the Fall then ended up being very -PNA

I would argue that only the last 2 Winters underperformed, because we had below average temps DJF for the first time. There was a ridiculous -PNA pattern 2018-2024 that has nothing to do with luck. It was more of a base-La Nina ENSO state combined with very strong -PDO. I'm trying not to get lost in the PDO but it has been a good indicator!

[Ephesians2]

49 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

What are you basing this on? 

Seasonal models had a mean trough for the EC, cold DJF anomaly in the seasonal mean in 23-24.. and it was pretty well above average. 

18-19 a Weak Nino was looking good in the Fall then ended up being very -PNA

I would argue that only the last 2 Winters underperformed, because we had below average temps DJF for the first time. There was a ridiculous -PNA pattern 2018-2024 that has nothing to do with luck. It was more of a base-La Nina ENSO state combined with very strong -PDO. I'm trying not to get lost in the PDO but it has been a good indicator!

Sorry, I meant underperformed based on what would expect if you were given the 500mb composite in advance, not expectations. Bad patterns were total shutouts and mediocre patterns became bad winters. 2018-19 is the only one that I think "luck" might have been in our favor - the Pacific was awful that year. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

Sorry, I meant underperformed based on what would expect if you were given the 500mb composite in advance, not expectations. Bad patterns were total shutouts and mediocre patterns became bad winters. 2018-19 is the only one that I think "luck" might have been in our favor - the Pacific was awful that year. 

Yeah, something interesting is the CPC NAO index has run significantly higher in the wintertime than what the 500mb composite has looked like. We've had all but 1 +NAO Winters since 10-11. And that one was -0.21. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Todays new CPC seasonal forecast has actually gone quite a bit warmer in the Northeast