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Junorch obs and discussion 2026


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1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

Not sure why models are weakening this but sure does look good.. lots of tornado and severe warnings with it

I do think CAMs are struggling with this. It's a well developed MCS, with MCV probably in there now and guidance is almost certainly decaying it too quickly. But I think the HRRR is on the right track, showing the southwestern end being the focus. That's where all the deeper instability is. SNE is all 0-3 CAPE.

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Seems to still be moving SE . Maybe they hold together and you get the throw warnings up for CT?

Not today. Today was travel, tomorrow we go back to our roots and forecast for SNE.

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32 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Not today. Today was travel, tomorrow we go back to our roots and forecast for SNE.

Oh wow…missed that. Sucks for us up here. At least we still have Ekster at the office.

image.gif

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