Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[ineedsnow]

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

A few days of warmth late month and early July and then cools off a ridge retros. Close to cancelling summer. 

 

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah Julorch looks above normal with no cool in Canada but not hot. A lot of 83-88 with dews and hopefully daily storm chances with the Midwest trough 

Interesting.. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

 

Interesting.. 

his hot and humid summer is not happening. Maybe later July or August we can finally get a trough in the Midwest but who knows.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Cancelling summer in mid-June...   noted

We will get our shots  Still expecting AN overall for JJA... maybe nothing huge or historic, but it will be hot at times

[HoarfrostHubb]

And do we have a way to measure seasonal humidity vs past years?  

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

his hot and humid summer is not happening. Maybe later July or August we can finally get a trough in the Midwest but who knows.

We will get our hot days but the upcoming pattern doesnt look great for it.. no idea what hes seeing.. looks like comfortable summer weather to me

[Typhoon Tip]

35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

A few days of warmth late month and early July and then cools off a ridge retros. Close to cancelling summer. 

Yeah, the ensembles from all three are doing that...   Just when the heat is poised to move in, we either only get day or so or it may even shunt entirely because the total scaffolding rolls back out of no where.  129.34 F throughout the Sonoran Desert/PHX region instead  ( if that does that, they're doomed.  Europe will seem a like a mild day to the Inuit)

Hell hath no fury should a release ever actually happen after that but as you say...it seems the hemisphere is hell bent on making sure we continue what happened all last winter:   SE Can/NE U.S. is the coolest relative to the whole planet despite currently being in 3rd place for historic inferno at a Global scale for June, and likely to be end in 2nd/vying for 1st.

You you ... I don't think I've seen a legit Sonoran Heat Release in years at this point because of this weirdness.  Puzzling.

One thing I'm noticing about that retro tho... it seems to be happening right as the entire scope of the hemisphere ( in all three ens systems) suddenly abandons the anomaly distribution. All wave functions, on-going, just abruptly dissolve/collapse into a base-line above average everywhere ... It's like an exaggerated PNAP is how that is expressing over N/A.  But that en mass unilateral holistic behavior all at once ... mmm that's suss to me.   But we'll see. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

his hot and humid summer is not happening. Maybe later July or August we can finally get a trough in the Midwest but who knows.

Never said hot summer. But it is and has been AN. The humidity is what will be remembered starting later this week and beyond 

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Cancelling summer in mid-June...   noted

We will get our shots  Still expecting AN overall for JJA... maybe nothing huge or historic, but it will be hot at times

 Cooler and wetter pattern shaping up with a few hot days mixed in

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Never said hot summer. But it is and has been AN. The humidity is what will be remembered starting later this week and beyond 

Long vacation to Florida this Summer?

[HoarfrostHubb]

The big heat just keeps get beaten back... it will get here.  Just delayed.   For now I am sticking with that May heat being the hottest for MBY for the year though

[ineedsnow]

Atleast no one can deny the days are getting shorter from here on out 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

The big heat just keeps get beaten back... it will get here.  Just delayed.   For now I am sticking with that May heat being the hottest for MBY for the year though

Ya that was a bit brutal.. average to slightly below from here on out.. but yes we will get hot days.. also looks like above normal precip

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Atleast no one can deny the days are getting shorter from here on out 

Latest sunset around June 26/27 in our hood.  I do love the long days for summer

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Long vacation to Florida this Summer?

You are acting like it’s been a cool BN summer. I mean look at the MTD numbers lol. After today’s failed heavy rain event south of pike it’ll warm AN rest of week . And the Julorch look the first 10 days or so looks similar. AN with some dews of 65-70 and no big heat. That’s still a very summer pattern 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You are acting like it’s been a cool BN summer. I mean look at the MTD numbers lol. After today’s failed heavy rain event south of pike it’ll warm AN rest of week . And the Julorch look the first 10 days or so looks similar. AN with some dews of 65-70 and no big heat. That’s still a very summer pattern 

When did I ever say that? It's been comfortable other then a week of crap.. a/c has been off most days.. I don't live south of the Pike so honestly don't care .. you say some dews 65 to 70 so you can claim that your right even its just a day or two..  were going to have (some) days in the 70s.. ill claim victory now 

[dendrite]

Ha. I know we’re entering niño, but I think we need to define “summer” before I cancel it.  usually finds a way to get us somewhat AN. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Looks like it’s going to be hit and miss with the rain here later today and tonight. NNE looks like a better spot for widespread stuff.

 

Hope we catch a downpour 

[SouthCoastMA]

Average to just above normal is fine for July and August

 All set with that HHH (94/78) bs

[SouthCoastMA]

11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Looks like it’s going to be hit and miss with the rain here later today and tonight. NNE looks like a better spot for widespread stuff.

 

Hope we catch a downpour 

Seems like tomorrow morning is our best shot, but that could easily miss south.

[CoastalWx]

40 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Cancelling summer in mid-June...   noted

We will get our shots  Still expecting AN overall for JJA... maybe nothing huge or historic, but it will be hot at times

Obviously some hyperbole there, but I jsut don’t see anything deep summer for a long time aside for a few days to start July.  

[kdxken]

 

So much for wagons North.

 

 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 

So much for wagons North.

 

 

Wagons all around Taunton except Taunton?

[dendrite]

Yeah not surprised honestly. Like Scoot said…more synoptic up here and convective down there.

If Rufus is the future it still has a dual jack in S NH and the S coast.

Funny how the globals are wetter up here than the NAM and HRRR now. 

[weatherwiz]

Probably be some decent rains SOP tomorrow...might be a couple different waves of it

[Cyclone-68]

How does this current pattern affect any potential tropical activity up here? If it does at all?

[Typhoon Tip]

Looks like about a buck 50 on the NAM N of the Pike.  

Nothing ridic.  Beneficial. 

...I'm sure we'll focus on whatever 5.76" version instead... but probably this is a 'standard' soaking

[SouthCoastMA]

Actually looks decent for two convective chances tomorrow morning, then later in the afternoon/evening. Would be tough to go 0-3 with one system, but Stein still has his fastball

[VivaManchVegas]

HRR is putting the heavy axis of QPF in SNH and SVT.  What are everyones thoughts on this?  3" max or more?

[weatherwiz]

27 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

How does this current pattern affect any potential tropical activity up here? If it does at all?

Given this (granted its early) I don't think tropical is anything we'll be tracking. Unless you want to count any remnant Gulf systems being absorbed in troughs come Fall and moving up to our west

[Chrisrotary12]

That’s a lot of water to our west on Albany radar. Bring it!