Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[WxWatcher007]

34 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I’d be happy with sub severe 90% of the time. Doesn’t have to be classic plains/midwest tops to 80,000 feet stuff..It looks like I’ll be moving to southern NH in the next two years so hopefully that’ll improve my lot a little  

What happened to the man I used to know?

Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

IL/IN severe cancel due to morning MCS?

They’ll have a solid day later. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

IL/IN severe cancel due to morning MCS?

I don't think so. The idea of multiple rounds has been modeled quite well with this round expected to be quite intense as well. This will certainly impact things on a mesoscale level and may result in some shifts in best potential for later as this could influence how far north the warm front gets. 

But you can see it will (well already kind of is) rapidly intensity from east-central Missouri into south-central Illinois and that air will lift north as the warm front does. If anything, this MCS may lead to further enhancement for some localized strong/violent tornado potential with residual outflow boundaries and enhanced local vorticity

[Cyclone-68]

The sun will rise, the sun will set and Iowa will still get a derecho 

[Torch Tiger]

Not a bad 24-hour lead for our region

Ahead of this early activity, a warm front will push
   north-northeastward across Indiana/Ohio. New severe storm
   development, perhaps MCV-influenced and transitioning out of the
   remnant activity and/or forming near the warm front, is possible
   across Indiana into Ohio. Shear profiles will be excessive, with
   tornado risk only conditional on minimal instability being present.
   The result may be a isolated tornadic supercells. The warm frontal
   position will need to be monitored northward toward the
   Indiana/Michigan border vicinity. Even if instability is elevated
   into Michigan, extreme shear and lift may still yield damaging winds
   and even a tornado risk. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't think there has been a situation ever involving a nearby boundary and GFS based products or NBM based products actually throw out numbers suggestive of not warm sectoring. This is going to be a big problem when its basically just NBM for a text based product 

agreed...

wild digression ...buuut:   all of society is bottle-necking reliance with technology.  While doing so, there's no redundancies.   There should be back up systems that achieve the same tasks, like in "off" mode, ready to be turned on in the event of calamity.  It's getting closer to a one system handling everything.  Banking, to heart surgery, to flying airliners, to surfing porn on the web, and everything else that machines civility along, if that one agency goes down,  heh...

It's too easy to even write that Sci Fi dystopian novel.  First, make the entire species slaved to one system, which is eventually either by design or hostility, taken over by a proverbial Skynet type agency ...and well, shit - we've already seen that movie, huh. 

But anyway, I see this kind of thing all the time. I wish they still would run old systems that worked, but were abandoned because of the evolution of ease and convenience.  Like if the NBM future system has an outage... we can still look at the constituent parts.   

[Typhoon Tip]

Heh... they did expand the Slght into NE after all

[kdxken]

Storms in the corn belt seem to be busting.

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, kdxken said:

Storms in the corn belt seem to be busting.

That’s just the first wave. There were legit winds back in Iowa but the afternoon stuff should pop in a few hours.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Storms in the corn belt seem to be busting.

This is just round 1. Round two is going to ignite within this area and we'll see a line of supercells quickly fire up in the next 2-4 hours. Big instability building within this area and will build downstream as the clouds break and temps skyrocket with steepening lapse rates

[WxWatcher007]

...New England/Mid-Atlantic...
   Convection will likely be ongoing ahead of the upper trough during
   the morning, particularly from eastern New York into New England.
   While this activity is likely to inhibit afternoon destabilization,
   strong wind fields will still promote some risk for damaging winds
   and perhaps a brief tornado. The strongest activity will develop by
   early afternoon along the cold front and progress eastward. Bowing
   segments and marginal supercell structures will be possible. The
   strong low-level jet will be shifting eastward during the day, but
   portions of New England will still have strong 850 mb winds during
   the early/mid afternoon. If sufficient heating occurs, this is where
   the tornado risk will be marginally greater.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Seems like a pretty solid Stein south of 90. Maybe a shower in the morning . Monday trended south on GFS

[CoastalWx]

Hodos are long and curved. Kevin approved. 

[weatherwiz]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hodos are long and curved. Kevin approved. 

mesos are definitely becoming a bit more intriguing with tomorrow

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

mesos are definitely becoming a bit more intriguing with tomorrow

This looks like a classic pike north severe event . I’d head to ORH if I were you 

[weatherwiz]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This looks like a classic pike north severe event . I’d head to ORH if I were you 

Unfortunately unable to chase tomorrow.

[Chrisrotary12]

What a fascinating radar. Basically a string of supercells every 15 miles from Chicago to Wichita.

[dendrite]

Big boy hail south of ILX

[mreaves]

High of 75.8° low of 49.1°. About perfect. 

[kdxken]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Seems like a pretty solid Stein south of 90. Maybe a shower in the morning . Monday trended south on GFS

 

[Torch Tiger]

large unwarned tornado in IL

[Torch Tiger]

chaser TornadoTRX was hit by it.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

chaser TornadoTRX was hit by it.

 

Are they safe ?

[Torch Tiger]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Are they safe ?

so far

 

[Torch Tiger]

jakob mcmillin live

[Baroclinic Zone]

Can we please keep bringing days like these. Just friggin epic. Cool nights and warm days.

[WxWatcher007]

Just found spotted lanternfly nymphs on some vine in my yard. How do I wipe them out? 

[vortex95]

11 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mm... this doesn't lower the value nor significance of the statistical correlation - which is synoptic/ holistic in scale. 

Not a discrete convective level/meso analysis/indicator.  Which there are no known telecons that can be that predictively discrete.  For obvious reasons... 

The point is that the set ups tend to move that incremental spatial-temporal range in the 24 hour window.

Hell, not every +PNA/-NAO creates a winter storm here, either, and that's dealing with scales that are far more obvious to the physics.

 

Yes, but when it comes to sig tor events no matter where you are, the very small details are everything.  One parameter off, or not sufficient, can make a big difference.  For instance, dew points are few degrees lower in in BL than fcst.  That raises the LFC, decreases 0-3 km CAPE, and makes supercells more outflow dominant, which curtails the high-end tornado potential or any tornadoes at all.  There is very little difference between a sig tor event and a weak tor event if you look at the large picture.  It can look perfect synoptically, but it comes down to the mesoscale in the end.

[powderfreak]

Last soldier standing about to melt out.

[dendrite]

50 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Just found spotted lanternfly nymphs on some vine in my yard. How do I wipe them out? 

Let them feast. It's a waste of time killing them. Once they move in they're there to stay. They will suck for a few years and then their numbers will wane a bit. Other animals start to learn they make a tasty meal. 

[vortex95]

13 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

We’re advecting warmer air aloft 700-500. Usually not a good sign for SNE unless we had very warm temps. Definitely red flags as usual in SNE but kinematics are there. Like I said, get us over 80. 

Working overnights so hence my delayed response.

I say to CoastalWx and WxWiz, SPC added a 2% tor risk in New England in the DY2 1730z update!!!! (adding the exclamation points to be like Indeedsnow -  LOL).   "As I had been saying for tor risk..." 

18z HRRR VT 22z Thu.  3 discrete supercells. PWM, PSM, and one just N of Woburn MA (where I am from).  Scott needs a plan to chase!