Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Wish we could get one of the universities to run it...at least the 3k. But it would be a bad look for NCEP if everyone started flocking to Ewall or SUNY to see every NAM run while Rufus has more tumbleweeds than views.

I think they've made their bed and they'll have to lie in it either way. At least they were smart enough to wait until the end of met summer/severe wx season before ending it.

I wish more free models sites at the RRFS data. I like COD and Tidbits for quick and easy viewing. I get a little lost on what I'm clicking at Pivotal sometimes.

Pleezy weezy with sugar on top let's see that happen.   ha

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Comfortable is good.

I am not against, nor a fan of Judah Cohen's contributions ... I realize there's been some banter in here that's ranged from flattery to ... not so flattering opinions of the guy - I'm not part of that one way or the other.

Having defined that ... I don't have a problem at all with his surmise/intimation there that it bears some semblance to last winter.  I said almost exactly that to Brian in a post yesterday or the day before.  

Whether it ends up "comfortable" like he suggests is different combinations of metric than just temp though.  He needs to be careful there ... or at least, the readers/consumers need to be aware. 

If it ends up normal temperatures ...  that doesn't automatically intimate lower DPs to me. Not at this time of year - nor particularly to what the general synoptic trends look like out there.  Particularly, if the transient trough in the Lakes starts to retrograde like the 00z ens clusters all agreed it would do... that means it is challenged to really make it COC -like.   It would be more vaginal I guess... heh ( puerile humor ).

It's a new-ish signal but the neg anomalies associated move back toward the S/W continent just beyond next week. For a real air cleansing... the trough needs to go the other way ... opening up and progressing E.

[Brian5671]

Another top 5 day out there today

[dendrite]

12 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Comfortable is good.

What in the sam hell am I trying to interpret here

[Typhoon Tip]

Speaking of the NAM grid....  woof.   Thickness 572 to 575, first time this season basically sets in now, out thru 60 hours. 

850's look like 15C.  Lot of a cloud production tho so that probably limits it's already tendency for 2-meter temp retardation a bit.

30C at 980mb in NYC on Thursday tho would probably be 96 in EWR

[metagraphica]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

What in the sam hell am I trying to interpret here

Probability of quintile range 0.0 <= x < 20% for 2 metre temperature probability          

[weatherwiz]

Sucks the strongest shear lags behind the front Friday. but with large CAPE/a bit of an EML we could still pull off some big storms, its just they would be more pulse type and may not be organized 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

21 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Another top 5 day out there today

Violently agree.  Perfect summer weather! 

[kdxken]

23 minutes ago, dendrite said:

What in the sam hell am I trying to interpret here

Charts

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, metagraphica said:

Probability of quintile range 0.0 <= x < 20% for 2 metre temperature probability          

[CoastalWx]

Nam says we enjoy anvil cirrus Thursday 

[Torch Tiger]

Thursday has been shot for days. Pa/NY

[CoastalWx]

40 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Thursday has been shot for days. Pa/NY

It’s too bad it’s so blocky at 500 because that was a good trajectory for southern New England in general. We fucking suck.

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Nam says we enjoy anvil cirrus Thursday 

Rufus looked a little better in E MA/NH…a little trigger along the theta-e grad and outflow enhanced seabreeze pushing westward. I’m just interested in rain though.

[Torch Tiger]

41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s too bad it’s so blocky at 500 because that was a good trajectory for southern New England in general. We fucking suck.

Yeah, these types of setups always trend towards best instability/theta-e, and that's nearly always going in the wrong direction.  unless there's a strong cf squall line, or it's this type of setup but pegged for NNE many days out, forget it

[CoastalWx]

33 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Rufus looked a little better in E MA/NH…a little trigger along the theta-e grad and outflow enhanced seabreeze pushing westward. I’m just interested in rain though.

Yeah possible I guess. Starting to get crispy here.

[Torch Tiger]

54 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Rufus looked a little better in E MA/NH…a little trigger along the theta-e grad and outflow enhanced seabreeze pushing westward. I’m just interested in rain though.

S Wey special