Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[vortex95]

SPC took out general tstms for SNE 13z update?  I don't think so.  Plenty of sun, adequate CAPE, and cold temps aloft as a solid s/w trof swings through.  HRRR and RRFS clearly show cells ern MA and the S Coast.  12z RRFS gets carried away it seems Buzzards Bay area showing a li'l 2.78" max but the 06z had a .70" max in the same area.  Meso models all along have shown decent potential S Coast today, so no reason to think it will not happen.  Also, storms dropping from the N often over-perform in SNE and it's how CC and the S Coast do their best.  

[jbenedet]

58 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The showers dropping in from the north look like weak sauce. 3k tries to fire some isolated convection along the boundary later…we shall see.

Setting in by mid June…just like clockwork. 

I’m expecting an overperform today.

The mid level forcing tends to meet or exceed for June. Yesterday with the prevailing low level easterly fetch and overcast was a big sell for rain. Not a repeat. Two completely different setups. More early sun too. Fitting the persistence pattern today with the mid level low swinging through.

[weatherwiz]

The winds along the leading edge from yesterday in New Britain 

 

[dendrite]

Clouds really fired up ahead of the boundary in S NH. Down to 69/60 here. Maybe we pop some cells if we clear out behind this line of SHRA. 

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Looks good but had to edit it a bit.

Always believed that muggy was low 60s, humid was mid to upper 60s and oppressive started at 70. Anything 75 and above was uncommon for the region. 

Idk when people started lowering the standard 

[vortex95]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Always believed that muggy was low 60s, humid was mid to upper 60s and oppressive started at 70. Anything 75 and above was uncommon for the region. 

Idk when people started lowering the standard 

Yes, what you noted about dew points and descriptors, it used to be that way, but enter the age of excess labeling, hype, and pushing/finding the negative for everything!

Below 60 is comfortable, 60-65 moderately humid, 65-70 muggy, and 70 and above oppressive/tropical for the vast majority of the population.   You can use other descriptors, but these 4 levels are all you need for practical use.

in the Y-axis above, how is "humid" two steps up from "muggy?"  They mean the same thing!  Sticky and muggy mean the same as well.

Also, at other end of the spectrum, since when are dew points 45-60 "tolerable", "too dry," or "frigid?"  "Frigid" in the context of dew point is nonsense.  Who ever says "frigid" when describing dew point?   And "too dry," using that w/o reference to temp or RH says nothing.

Where is "invigorating?"

The descriptors for dew point below 55 say or imply that there is a problem for human comfort/heath.  See what I mean?  Create problems/issues where there are none for hype.  Typical media.