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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion


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I am on it. As I thought LCA is defietely worried about the base flow conditions of the Little Lehigh.  We are down bigtime and near emergency status. The Little Lehigh  and its watershed is the primary source of water for Lehigh County
 
 
 
LCA-WeeklyReport-DroughtMonitoring-Dashboard-06152026.pdf

It was highly detrimental to not get anything from today. My conversation was with a government friend who is a friend of somebody in the authority. They’re very worried.
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43 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

Wind is absolutely howling right now. If it’s not wind advisory level, it’s very close.

Today's conditions are exactly why common sense needs to prevail when it comes to open burning.

Frankly, a Wind Advisory should have been issued. We have strong southwest winds crossing the Blue Mountain ridge, critically dry vegetation, and a growing rainfall deficit. These are the types of conditions that can turn a routine burn pile into a fast-moving brush fire in minutes.

What concerns me even more is not the immediate fire danger, but what these continued dry conditions mean for the long-term health of our water resources. The drought situation is becoming increasingly serious, and too many people are focused on brown lawns instead of the bigger picture.

The Little Lehigh Creek is one of the most important cold-water fisheries in Pennsylvania. Its exceptional wild trout habitat is sustained almost entirely by groundwater discharge. Unlike streams that respond quickly to rainfall, the Little Lehigh depends on a healthy aquifer system maintaining adequate base flows year-round. When groundwater levels decline, streamflows decline. When streamflows decline, water temperatures rise. When water temperatures rise, trout populations and the entire aquatic ecosystem suffer.

The importance of the Little Lehigh extends far beyond the Lehigh Valley. Anglers, conservationists, and outdoor enthusiasts travel from across Pennsylvania and neighboring states to fish its waters. It is recognized as one of the premier limestone trout streams in the Commonwealth and serves as an indicator of the health of the region's groundwater resources.

If base flows continue to decline, the repercussions extend well beyond trout. Reduced groundwater discharge affects wetlands, springs, private wells, agricultural operations, public water supplies, and the overall ecological health of the watershed. Once groundwater levels drop significantly, recovery is often measured in months—not days or weeks.

What is often overlooked is the direct connection between the Little Lehigh, the regional aquifer system, and the Lehigh Valley economy. Numerous industries depend on abundant, reliable groundwater supplies. Companies and facilities associated with Nestlé Waters, Coca-Cola bottling operations, Pepsi distribution and beverage facilities, Ocean Spray suppliers, regional breweries, food processors, pharmaceutical manufacturers, and countless other businesses throughout the Lehigh Valley all depend upon the same groundwater resources that ultimately sustain streamflows in the Little Lehigh and surrounding watersheds.

A prolonged drought does not simply affect trout streams. It can result in mandatory conservation measures, restrictions on water withdrawals, increased pumping costs, reduced groundwater recharge, higher treatment expenses, and operational challenges for water-dependent industries. When water supplies become stressed, the economic impacts ripple throughout the region through higher costs, reduced production capacity, and increased pressure on both public and private water systems.

This is not simply a local issue. The Little Lehigh watershed plays a critical role in supporting downstream water resources throughout eastern Pennsylvania. Healthy base flows help maintain water quality, aquatic habitat, groundwater recharge, and ecological stability across the broader Lehigh River system.

At the same time, dry conditions dramatically increase wildfire risk. The combination of low fuel moisture, gusty southwest winds, and abundant dry vegetation creates conditions where a single escaped burn pile can threaten woodlands, homes, farms, and emergency responders.

The larger concern is that the Little Lehigh is essentially a window into the health of the region's aquifer system. When sustained reductions in base flow occur, it is often an indication that groundwater reserves are under increasing stress. That should concern every resident, every farmer, every business owner, and every municipality that relies on those same groundwater resources.

The Little Lehigh is not important simply because it is a trout stream. It is important because it is one of the best indicators of groundwater conditions in eastern Pennsylvania. The trout are merely the first to tell us there is a problem. Long before municipal wells begin showing stress, long before industries face water restrictions, and long before consumers see increased costs, the Little Lehigh starts sending warning signals through declining base flows and rising water temperatures.

If the Little Lehigh were ever to experience a significant and sustained reduction in groundwater-fed flows, it would be a warning sign for everyone—from homeowners with private wells, to farmers irrigating crops, to municipalities supplying drinking water, to major employers and manufacturers throughout the Lehigh Valley.

Drought is not just an inconvenience. It is a public safety issue, an environmental issue, and an economic issue. Every day without meaningful rainfall places additional stress on our groundwater reserves, our streams, our industries, and the ecosystems that depend on them.

Until significant precipitation returns and streamflows recover, extreme caution is warranted. The consequences of continued drought and unnecessary burning extend far beyond any one property—they affect the water resources, economy, and environmental health of the entire region.

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Below normal temperatures for most of the next week with beneficial rains arriving for much of the area by late Sunday into Monday. Sun should return this afternoon with lower humidity. The weekend looks great with highs in the upper 70's to near 80 degrees and lows in the 50's. The rain Monday could be significant with most models painting as much as 1" to 1.5" of needed rain.

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Plenty of 50's and even 40's this morning with our typical cold valley location Warwick Twp reaching 49.8 degrees. To contrast that just a couple miles south of there but a few hundred feet higher in East Nantmeal Twp. we only reached 59.9 (over 10 degrees warmer). Great weather continues today and tomorrow with highs close to normal around 80 degrees. It still looks like Monday will bring some beneficial rains to the area with at least an inch of rain for many spots still likely. We turn drier and cooler for the rest of the work week with highs a couple of degrees below normal.

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Happy Father's Day to all the dad's out there! Plus happy first day of summer which began this morning at 4:24am. Another great weather day is on tap across the area. Temperatures are not far from typical levels for very early summer. Rain chances to ramp up by later tomorrow before we clear out for mid-week. Shower chances return again by Thursday afternoon.

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Well here's something we haven't seen much of in awhile  -

 

Quote
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
216 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

DEZ001-NJZ008>010-012-013-015>019-PAZ070-071-101>106-231000-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.A.0001.260622T1800Z-260623T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
New Castle-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-
Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Delaware-
Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-
Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Norristown, Oxford, Perkasie,
Philadelphia, Doylestown, Pottstown, Wilmington, Moorestown,
Cherry Hill, Collegeville, Glassboro, Morristown, Lansdale, West
Chester, Media, Somerville, Chalfont, Kennett Square, Pennsville,
Mount Holly, New Brunswick, Honey Brook, Flemington, Morrisville,
Trenton, Freehold, and Camden
216 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Delaware, including the following
  area, New Castle, New Jersey, including the following areas,
  Camden, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Morris,
  Northwestern Burlington, Salem, Somerset and Western Monmouth, and
  southeast Pennsylvania, including the following areas, Delaware,
  Eastern Chester, Eastern Montgomery, Lower Bucks, Philadelphia,
  Upper Bucks, Western Chester and Western Montgomery.

* WHEN...From 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late tonight.

* IMPACTS...Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Showers and thunderstorms with rainfall rates potentially of
    1-2 inches per hour are expected across the watch area. In
    urban locations, this will be enough to trigger flash
    flooding.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

RCM

Stuff was starting to brown up so need the rain.  I have 3.36" for the month so far.

Currently overcast and 71 with dp 64.

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Decent severe threat tomorrow as long as the morning clouds and rain get out quick enough. Looks like we’ll get some much needed rain at the very least.

I watered the garden on Sunday just in case we get another 7-10 split!
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A Flood watch is in effect starting at 2pm today. Rain will arrive from west to east later this afternoon. We could see some thunderstorms. There is still some uncertainty to where the heaviest rain will fall. For now it appears from 0.5" across NW Chesco to over an inch possible toward SE Chester County. Highs today and tomorrow will be several degrees below normal with the clouds and rain. We dry out later Tuesday through much of Thursday before more rain arrives Thursday night into Friday.

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Thunderstorm Watches are up (am getting a lot of convection hits on my lightning detector)

Quote
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 375
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 375 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

PAC001-011-017-029-041-043-045-055-057-061-067-071-075-087-091-
099-101-133-230100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0375.260622T1810Z-260623T0100Z/

PA
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS                BERKS               BUCKS
CHESTER              CUMBERLAND          DAUPHIN
DELAWARE             FRANKLIN            FULTON
HUNTINGDON           JUNIATA             LANCASTER
LEBANON              MIFFLIN             MONTGOMERY
PERRY                PHILADELPHIA        YORK
$$

 

Quote
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 375
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 375 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-019-021-023-025-029-033-035-230100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0375.260622T1810Z-260623T0100Z/

NJ
.    NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATLANTIC             BURLINGTON          CAMDEN
CAPE MAY             CUMBERLAND          GLOUCESTER
HUNTERDON            MERCER              MIDDLESEX
MONMOUTH             OCEAN               SALEM
SOMERSET
$$

 

Quote
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 375
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 375 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

DEC001-003-005-230100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0375.260622T1810Z-260623T0100Z/

DE
.    DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

KENT                 NEW CASTLE          SUSSEX
$$

Also a warning over parts of Philly metro - 

 

Quote
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
NJC005-007-PAC017-091-101-221900-
/O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0087.260622T1820Z-260622T1900Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
220 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northwestern Camden County in southern New Jersey...
  Northwestern Burlington County in southern New Jersey...
  Southeastern Montgomery County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
  Southeastern Bucks County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
  Central Philadelphia County in southeastern Pennsylvania...

* Until 300 PM EDT.

* At 220 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Kensington,
  or over Philadelphia, moving northeast at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damage to roofs, siding, trees, and power lines is
           possible.

* Locations impacted include...
  Philadelphia, Trenton, Camden, Gloucester City, Bensalem, Mount
  Laurel, Ewing, Willingboro, Lumberton, Florence, Burlington,
  Bristol, Mount Holly, Riverside, Palmyra, Beverly, Rockledge,
  Yardley, Tullytown, and Langhorne.

This includes the following highways...
 New Jersey Turnpike between exits 4 and 6A.
 Pennsylvania Turnpike between mile markers 350 and 359.
 Interstate 95 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 20 and 40.
 Interstate 76 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 339 and 341.
 Interstate 76 in New Jersey between mile markers 1 and 3.
 Interstate 295 in New Jersey between mile markers 35 and 55.
 Interstate 676 in Pennsylvania near mile marker 1.
 Interstate 676 in New Jersey between mile markers 0 and 4.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3999 7465 3988 7511 4002 7522 4025 7484
      4024 7481
TIME...MOT...LOC 1820Z 240DEG 26KT 3999 7510

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Cooper

Currently overcast and 78 with dp 69.

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Definitely looks to have been a rotating storm that moved through Philly around 2:15. Not an overly tight couplet but decent storm structure. 

1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Thunderstorm Watches are up (am getting a lot of convection hits on my lightning detector)

 

 

Also a warning over parts of Philly metro - 

 

Currently overcast and 78 with dp 69.

 

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TOR up - 

 

Quote
Tornado Warning
PAC011-029-045-091-222100-
/O.NEW.KPHI.TO.W.0005.260622T2035Z-260622T2100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
435 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southern Berks County in eastern Pennsylvania...
  West central Montgomery County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
  Northeastern Chester County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
  North central Delaware County in southeastern Pennsylvania...

* Until 500 PM EDT.

* At 435 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located over Honey Brook, or 10 miles east of New Holland,
  moving east at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
  Pottstown, Phoenixville, Coatesville, Downingtown, Collegeville,
  Royersford, Trappe, Honey Brook, Schwenksville, Elverson, New
  Morgan, Pughtown, Lionville-Marchwood, Valley Forge, Glenmoore,
  Paoli, Chester Springs, Lionville, Cedarville, and West Goshen.

This includes the following highways...
 Pennsylvania Turnpike between mile markers 296 and 325.
 Interstate 176 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 1 and 2.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4004 7593 4011 7594 4014 7588 4018 7594
      4027 7546 3997 7540 4000 7596
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 262DEG 31KT 4010 7589

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

$$

Cooper

 

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