2026 Tropical Tracking Thread

[yoda]

5pm TD 9 

 

[WxWatcher007]

The only hurricane chance in two years…and it falls right around my wife’s birthday. Can’t make it up. 
 

[TSSN+]

Wasn’t our last tropical impact by isaias? 

[George BM]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The only hurricane chance in two years…and it falls right around my wife’s birthday. Can’t make it up. 
 

Introduce her to the thrill of hurricane force winds and sideways rains. 

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Wasn’t our last tropical impact by isaias? 

Weren’t the remnants of Ida pretty bad in the MA?

Just now, George BM said:

Introduce her to the thrill of hurricane force winds and sideways rains. 

She’s been, but we have a rule where birthday plans are nonnegotiable. I’ve hopped on flights around my birthday to leave her behind for chases.

I guess the bill is coming due. Literally and figuratively.  

[ravensrule]

56 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

She’s been, but we have a rule where birthday plans are nonnegotiable. I’ve hopped on flights around my birthday to leave her behind for chases.

I guess the bill is coming due. Literally and figuratively.  

Divorce is always an option. I know a good attorney if you need one. Plus @mitchnick would probably do it pro bono for you. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

42 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Divorce is always an option. I know a good attorney if you need one. Plus @mitchnick would probably do it pro bono for you. 

<Beavis-and-Butthead Voice> Heh, heh, heh!  @ravensrule said "pro BONO!"  Heh, heh, heh </Beavis-and-Butthead Voice>

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, ravensrule said:

Divorce is always an option. I know a good attorney if you need one. Plus @mitchnick would probably do it pro bono for you. 

Nope. Retired. No  longer have an active law license. 

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Nope. Retired. No  longer have an active law license. 

Congrats on being retired.

[WxWatcher007]

Back on track...remnant rain looking like a high likelihood now for the region as this rounds the eastward shifting high. 

Perhaps, there may be a severe risk too if this tracks to the west?

[WxWatcher007]

The VERY definition of a small window! I was spot on with this part of the peak season forecast.

 

[WxWatcher007]

Now exceeding the NS portion of the forecast, but with the best chance yet of a H/MH.

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 5 (6)
Hurricanes: 3 (0)
Major Hurricanes: 1 (0)

Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias

[dailylurker]

13 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Weren’t the remnants of Ida pretty bad in the MA?

She’s been, but we have a rule where birthday plans are nonnegotiable. I’ve hopped on flights around my birthday to leave her behind for chases.

I guess the bill is coming due. Literally and figuratively.  

I use to have a girlfriend like that lol. I have a new rule for the next one. Snow is more important than our relationship will ever be, includingyour birthday. I'll be on the Tug Hill all winter playing in snow and I work 7 days a week during the warm seasons. Take it or leave it lol

I like what I'm seeing in the gulf. I'd chase if I didn't have a large project right now. 

[WxWatcher007]

4 hours ago, dailylurker said:

I use to have a girlfriend like that lol. I have a new rule for the next one. Snow is more important than our relationship will ever be, includingyour birthday. I'll be on the Tug Hill all winter playing in snow and I work 7 days a week during the warm seasons. Take it or leave it lol

I like what I'm seeing in the gulf. I'd chase if I didn't have a large project right now. 

I’m sure there’s someone out there that would take that deal  

We let each other be ourselves. That works well most of the time. 
 

Looks like we have a center reformation ongoing. A vertically aligned system substantially increases RI odds.

[EastCoast NPZ]

13 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Back on track...remnant rain looking like a high likelihood now for the region as this rounds the eastward shifting high. 

Perhaps, there may be a severe risk too if this tracks to the west?

I love how it tracks to my west yet the heaviest precip goes to the east.

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I love how it tracks to my west yet the heaviest precip goes to the east.

Some things never change. 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z ensemble precip. Totals through Monday afternoon.

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

17 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The VERY definition of a small window! I was spot on with this part of the peak season forecast.

 

I never want to hear anyone say this is an “interesting weather free zone” ever again.

[mitchnick]

4 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I love how it tracks to my west yet the heaviest precip goes to the east.

Looks like it's redeveloping to off the coast.

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Looks like it's redeveloping to off the coast.

Yeah that’s something to watch

[CAPE]

HH Natty Blend

[Eskimo Joe]

On 10/6/2026 at 5:06 PM, TSSN+ said:

Wasn’t our last tropical impact by isaias? 

Helene wrecked the SW part of this subforum.

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Helene wrecked the SW part of this subforum.

Yeah, good recall. That was highly impactful.

[jewell2188]

20 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, good recall. That was highly impactful.

Don’t really think this will be Helene for anyone including western NC. If memory serves me right they had a predecessor rain event just days before Helene. 

[WxWatcher007]

17 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

Don’t really think this will be Helene for anyone including western NC. If memory serves me right they had a predecessor rain event just days before Helene. 

Oh no not at all. This is probably modest impact at best. Severe risk tbd.

[pazzo83]

hurricane now.

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

hurricane now.

And with that, my peak season forecast grade improves. Might get two H's now that the NHC won't have to worry about postseason futility records with Fay.  

 

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 5 (6)
Hurricanes: 3 (1)
Major Hurricanes: 1 (0)

Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias (H)

 

[WxWatcher007]

You can see in this IR image that the environment isn't pristine, but there's just enough of a window to allow for the inner core to take shape. Now we're in the intensification phase and if the core can remain shielded from the shear and drier air to the west this has a chance to become a major before shear takes its toll on Friday. 

 

As for impacts beyond landfall, meaningful rain continues to look likely up and down the east coast, as the remnants of Isaias seem to get caught up in a subtle trough and get kicked eastward as it gains forward speed post landfall. It doesn't look like flooding rain, but I think we need a little more time to get a sense of the rain potential. 

What continues to be interesting to me is the potential for at least some favorable conditions for severe storms, especially if the timing ends up a bit slower and the mid level center passes to our west during daytime Sunday. 

From the SPC: 

For Sun/D5, the shortwave trough and remnants of the tropical
   cyclone will generally move northeastward toward the Appalachians
   and toward the Carolinas and southern Mid Atlantic. It is possible
   that the upper system outruns the unstable warm sector, but at least
   a low end chance of severe is not out of the question.